TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Andrii Martyniuk vs Andrii Kurtenko 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1171012119117––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:42 and never touched: 73.2% is still 73.2%
Graded at full timeAndrii Martyniuk to win
73.2%
73.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingAndrii Martyniuk above · Andrii Kurtenko below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 78 set 4, 11-7 · our read held Andrii Martyniuk at 73.2%
78 points played in total.
H2H Andrii Martyniuk 7–1 Andrii Kurtenko Andrii Kurtenko has won 1 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:4273.2%Our read73.4%to break even at 1.363
short by 0.2pp73.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.363 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Martyniuk
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
7-1 in 8
Martyniuk
Correct
gap of 6 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Martyniuk 1567 vs Kurtenko 1458
Martyniuk
Correct
both rated, 109 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Martyniuk 80% vs Kurtenko 60%
Martyniuk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Martyniuk 70% vs Kurtenko 50%
Martyniuk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Martyniuk -1 · Kurtenko +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% · Strong (leans Martyniuk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kurtenko form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (33%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMartyniuk 1.363 / Kurtenko 3.00
Signal prob.73% / 27%
Edge (Martyniuk)-0.2pp
Setka Cup · #13240909
Martyniuk1.36
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite63% won 70 of 111
Up 2–0, closes it95% 41 of 43
Up 1–0, closes it73% 53 of 73
Kurtenko3.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 7 days ago (Sep 27) · back after a break
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog38% won 49 of 128
Down 0–1, comes back12% 8 of 66
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 42
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeMartyniuk7wins
AwayKurtenko1wins
3 of 8 to a deciderMartyniuk leads 7–1, and 3 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMartyniuk87.5%7 of 8
AwayKurtenkon = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Martyniuk8Kurtenko0n = 8Martyniuk took 8 of 8
S2Martyniuk5Kurtenko3n = 8Martyniuk took 5 of 8
S3Martyniuk4Kurtenko4n = 8split evenly
S4Martyniuk4Kurtenko1n = 5Martyniuk took 4 of 5
S5Martyniuk2Kurtenko1n = 3Martyniuk took 2 of 3
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home338%
3–1Four sets, home225%
3–2Decider, home225%
2–3Decider, away113%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 8 meetings
MetricMartyniukKurtenkoM − KBasisWins71+6in 8 meetingsFirst set80+8of 8Avg pointsper match41.835.4+6.4per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMartyniukKurtenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime192 / 365 vs 354 / 67652.6%52.4%192 / 365 vs 354 / 676Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.437.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MartyniukMartyniuk 1.36/Kurtenko 3.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
73.2%
Martyniuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Martyniuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WOct 4 · 06:50A. Martyniuk43111011113A. Kurtenko35712971
WSep 24 · 08:05A. Martyniuk47118511123A. Kurtenko44811114102
WSep 15 · 12:05A. Martyniuk391111173A. Kurtenko3069150
WSep 13 · 10:50A. Martyniuk50111179123A. Kurtenko45581111102
WAug 22 · 15:00A. Martyniuk341211113A. Kurtenko2610970
LJun 21 · 15:20A. Martyniuk4811981282A. Kurtenko529111110113
WMar 7 · 22:50A. Martyniuk4011117113A. Kurtenko29751161
WMar 27 · 05:30A. Martyniuk331111113A. Kurtenko229850
A. Martyniuk10
LOct 4 · 08:20S. Solomko2.00111167113A. Martyniuk1.7368111152LOct 3 · 18:00O. Osadchyi3.7561111103A. Martyniuk1.25118971WOct 3 · 17:00A. Martyniuk1.4491111123A. Kovalenko2.631179101WOct 3 · 16:00A. Martyniuk2.001111113S. Solomko1.739410WOct 3 · 14:30A. Martyniuk1.5711511123O. Leonenko2.258119101WOct 3 · 12:30A. Martyniuk1.441111113E. Populovskyi2.636990WOct 1 · 10:03A. Martyniuk1.6713712113O. Leonenko2.1011111081WOct 1 · 08:35O. Leonenko1.83471171A. Martyniuk1.8311116113WOct 1 · 07:35A. Martyniuk1.2511911113O. Osadchyi3.75611421LOct 1 · 06:35S. Solomko1.80114611123A. Martyniuk1.91411113102
A. Kurtenko10
LOct 4 · 08:50E. Populovskyi1.831814511113A. Kurtenko1.83201211782WOct 4 · 07:50A. Kurtenko2.0071111113O. Osadchyi1.73119751WSep 27 · 11:19A. Kurtenko1.9111411973S. Solomko1.8091181152WSep 27 · 09:20O. Osadchyi1.737111381A. Kurtenko2.00111311113LSep 27 · 08:20A. Kurtenko1.67911118102D. Patalakha2.10117911123WSep 27 · 07:20S. Solomko1.801191211102A. Kurtenko1.911311108123LSep 27 · 06:20A. Kurtenko2.6312119121O. Tymofeev1.4414511143LSep 26 · 18:00A. Kurtenko2.2551312101B. Zaika1.57111510113LSep 26 · 16:30A. Kurtenko2.0011157472O. Osadchyi1.739131111113WSep 26 · 15:00A. Kurtenko2.63129111153O. Tymofeev1.4414119822
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