TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Lukas Krupnik Snr vs Martin Sobota 1-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
311116511511––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:09 and never touched: 57.7% is still 57.7%
Graded at full timeLukas Krupnik Snr to win
57.7%
57.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingLukas Krupnik Snr above · Martin Sobota below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 63 set 4, 5-11 · our read held Lukas Krupnik Snr at 57.7%
63 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Krupnik Snr 2–2 Martin Sobota Dead even across their 4 meetings.
Last 4 · 2–2Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:0957.7%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 4.2pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Snr
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-2 in 4
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Snr 1264 vs Sobota 1289
Sobota
Correct
both rated, 25 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Snr 20% vs Sobota 40%
Sobota
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Snr 20% vs Sobota 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Snr -2 · Sobota +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% · Slight lean (leans Snr) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Snr form (20%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSnr 1.615 / Sobota 2.20
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Snr)-4.2pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13240804
Snr1.61
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest33%takes the first set · 3 of 9
As favourite44% won 19 of 43
Up 2–0, closes it100% 13 of 13
Up 1–0, closes it71% 15 of 21
Sobota2.20
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 4 days ago (Sep 30)
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog40% won 35 of 87
Down 0–1, comes back16% 7 of 44
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 29
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeSnr2wins
AwaySobota2wins
Level at 2–2.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Snr2Sobota2n = 4split evenly
S2Snr3Sobota1n = 4Snr took 3 of 4
S3Snr3Sobota1n = 4Snr took 3 of 4
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home250%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away250%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricSnrSobotaSnr − SobotaBasisWins220in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match33.034.0−1.0per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSnrSobotaBasisWin rate · lifetime66 / 150 vs 84 / 19644%42.9%66 / 150 vs 84 / 196Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.439.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SnrSnr 1.61/Sobota 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57.7%
Snr · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Sobota won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LOct 4 · 06:10L. Snr24311551M. Sobota3911611113
LJul 13 · 07:10L. Snr32681171M. Sobota3911116113
WJun 14 · 08:55L. Snr411611143M. Sobota34148120
WJun 14 · 06:10L. Snr351311113M. Sobota2411760
L. Snr10
LOct 4 · 07:40J. Lysek1.73313413113L. Snr2.001111111172LOct 4 · 07:10L. Stempak1.73911115113L. Snr2.0011831162LOct 3 · 08:44J. Lysek1.8071111113L. Snr1.91112991LOct 3 · 07:40F. Mandrysz1.8043L. Snr1.9102WOct 3 · 07:10L. Stempak1.53761161L. Snr2.3811119113LOct 3 · 06:10L. Snr1.83151011111J. Lysek1.8317129133LSep 25 · 12:38L. Snr2.5041170J. Jnr1.501113113LSep 25 · 12:10L. Snr1.28311241Z. Chovancik3.5011811113WSep 25 · 10:40J. Jnr1.36811101142L. Snr3.00117128113LSep 25 · 10:10P. Sturma1.731111113L. Snr2.007480
M. Sobota10
WOct 4 · 06:40J. Lysek1.83951151M. Sobota1.8311116113WSep 30 · 16:38M. Sobota1.6191111123J. Lysek2.201138101LSep 30 · 15:40F. Mandrysz1.831113211113M. Sobota1.8371511892WSep 30 · 15:10J. Lysek1.8310121151M. Sobota1.8312148113LSep 30 · 14:10M. Sobota2.00117981L. Zustina1.7381111113LSep 29 · 08:45J. Matus1.5711116113M. Sobota2.25381141LSep 29 · 08:15M. Sobota1.919860R. Zajac1.801111113WSep 29 · 06:45J. Matus1.5713812682M. Sobota2.2511111011113LSep 29 · 06:15D. Stefek1.5061111113M. Sobota2.50119681LSep 27 · 08:49P. Chvojka1.201111113M. Sobota4.335460
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