TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Jakub Lysek vs Lukas Krupnik Snr 3-2 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
31113114111311117
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:38 and never touched: 55.7% is still 55.7%
Graded at full timeJakub Lysek to win
55.7%
55.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingJakub Lysek above · Lukas Krupnik Snr below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 13-11
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 95 set 5, 11-7 · our read held Jakub Lysek at 55.7%
95 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Lysek 7–1 Lukas Krupnik Snr Lukas Krupnik Snr has won 1 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:3855.7%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 2.2pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Lysek
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
7-1 in 8
Lysek
Correct
gap of 6 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lysek 1302 vs Snr 1254
Lysek
Correct
both rated, 48 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lysek 20% vs Snr 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lysek 30% vs Snr 20%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Lysek -2 · Snr -4
Snr
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Lysek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Snr form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLysek 1.727 / Snr 2.00
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Lysek)-2.2pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13240623
Lysek1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite55% won 18 of 33
Up 2–0, closes it100% 5 of 5
Up 1–0, closes it83% 10 of 12
Snr2.00
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest44%takes the first set · 4 of 9
As underdog41% won 22 of 54
Down 0–1, comes back21% 7 of 33
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 18
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeLysek7wins
AwaySnr1wins
2 of 8 to a deciderLysek leads 7–1, and 2 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLysek100%5 of 5
AwaySnr33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lysek5Snr3n = 8Lysek took 5 of 8
S2Lysek6Snr2n = 8Lysek took 6 of 8
S3Lysek4Snr4n = 8split evenly
S4Lysek5Snr2n = 7Lysek took 5 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home113%
3–1Four sets, home450%
3–2Decider, home225%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away113%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 8 meetings
MetricLysekSnrL − SBasisWins71+6in 8 meetingsFirst set53+2of 8Avg pointsper match43.439.9+3.5per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLysekSnrBasisWin rate · lifetime154 / 341 vs 66 / 15145.2%43.7%154 / 341 vs 66 / 151Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.036.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
LysekLysek 1.73/Snr 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.7%
Lysek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Lysek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WOct 4 · 07:40J. Lysek44313413113L. Snr511111111172
WOct 3 · 08:44J. Lysek4071111113L. Snr31112991
WOct 3 · 06:10J. Lysek5117129133L. Snr47151011111
LJul 22 · 08:15J. Lysek3911117101L. Snr4413811123
WJul 18 · 07:15J. Lysek52177116113L. Snr54151191182
WJun 23 · 09:45J. Lysek45111110133L. Snr397912111
WJun 14 · 07:40J. Lysek4311813113L. Snr355111181
WJun 12 · 06:15J. Lysek331111113L. Snr186750
J. Lysek10
LOct 4 · 06:40J. Lysek1.83951151M. Sobota1.8311116113LOct 4 · 05:40J. Lysek2.001311111L. Stempak1.7311113133WOct 3 · 08:44J. Lysek1.8071111113L. Snr1.91112991LOct 3 · 08:10J. Lysek2.00159951L. Stempak1.73131111113LOct 3 · 06:40F. Mandrysz1.7311711113J. Lysek2.00711781WOct 3 · 06:10L. Snr1.83151011111J. Lysek1.8317129133LSep 30 · 16:38M. Sobota1.6191111123J. Lysek2.201138101WSep 30 · 16:10L. Zustina1.449111161J. Lysek2.6311131113LSep 30 · 15:10J. Lysek1.8310121151M. Sobota1.8312148113LSep 30 · 13:40F. Mandrysz1.731111128113J. Lysek2.0099141142
L. Snr10
LOct 4 · 07:10L. Stempak1.73911115113L. Snr2.0011831162LOct 4 · 06:10L. Snr1.61311551M. Sobota2.2011611113LOct 3 · 08:44J. Lysek1.8071111113L. Snr1.91112991LOct 3 · 07:40F. Mandrysz1.8043L. Snr1.9102WOct 3 · 07:10L. Stempak1.53761161L. Snr2.3811119113LOct 3 · 06:10L. Snr1.83151011111J. Lysek1.8317129133LSep 25 · 12:38L. Snr2.5041170J. Jnr1.501113113LSep 25 · 12:10L. Snr1.28311241Z. Chovancik3.5011811113WSep 25 · 10:40J. Jnr1.36811101142L. Snr3.00117128113LSep 25 · 10:10P. Sturma1.731111113L. Snr2.007480
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