TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Jakub Lysek vs Lukas Krupnik Snr 3-1 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
711112119119––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
How it is goingJakub Lysek above · Lukas Krupnik Snr below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-2
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 71 set 4, 11-9
71 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Lysek 5–1 Lukas Krupnik Snr Lukas Krupnik Snr has won 1 of their 6 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Lysek beat Snr 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Snr form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLysek 1.80 / Snr 1.909
TT Cup · #13237407
Lysek1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite53% won 17 of 32
Up 2–0, closes it100% 5 of 5
Up 1–0, closes it83% 10 of 12
Snr1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog40% won 21 of 52
Down 0–1, comes back21% 7 of 33
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 18
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeLysek5wins
AwaySnr1wins
1 of 6 to a deciderLysek leads 5–1, and 1 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLysek100%5 of 5
AwaySnrn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lysek5Snr1n = 6Lysek took 5 of 6
S2Lysek4Snr2n = 6Lysek took 4 of 6
S3Lysek3Snr3n = 6split evenly
S4Lysek3Snr2n = 5Lysek took 3 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home350%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricLysekSnrL − SBasisWins51+4in 6 meetingsFirst set51+4of 6Avg pointsper match43.839.5+4.3per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLysekSnrBasisWin rate · lifetime152 / 337 vs 66 / 14645.1%45.2%152 / 337 vs 66 / 146Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.136.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
LysekLysek 1.80/Snr 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
—
no pick shipped on this market
What happened
3–1
Lysek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WOct 3 · 06:10J. Lysek5117129133L. Snr47151011111
LJul 22 · 08:15J. Lysek3911117101L. Snr4413811123
WJul 18 · 07:15J. Lysek52177116113L. Snr54151191182
WJun 23 · 09:45J. Lysek45111110133L. Snr397912111
WJun 14 · 07:40J. Lysek4311813113L. Snr355111181
WJun 12 · 06:15J. Lysek331111113L. Snr186750
J. Lysek10
LOct 3 · 08:10J. Lysek2.00159951L. Stempak1.73131111113LOct 3 · 06:40F. Mandrysz1.7311711113J. Lysek2.00711781WOct 3 · 06:10L. Snr1.83151011111J. Lysek1.8317129133LSep 30 · 16:38M. Sobota1.6191111123J. Lysek2.201138101WSep 30 · 16:10L. Zustina1.449111161J. Lysek2.6311131113LSep 30 · 15:10J. Lysek1.8310121151M. Sobota1.8312148113LSep 30 · 13:40F. Mandrysz1.731111128113J. Lysek2.0099141142WSep 27 · 20:39J. Lysek1.7313911113J. Oleksik2.001111891WSep 27 · 20:10M. Dolezal1.4071011101J. Lysek2.7511128123WSep 27 · 19:10J. Lysek2.00121011113J. Oleksik1.731012481
L. Snr10
LOct 3 · 07:40F. Mandrysz1.8041L. Snr1.9100WOct 3 · 07:10L. Stempak1.53761161L. Snr2.3811119113LOct 3 · 06:10L. Snr1.83151011111J. Lysek1.8317129133LSep 25 · 12:38L. Snr2.5041170J. Jnr1.501113113LSep 25 · 12:10L. Snr1.28311241Z. Chovancik3.5011811113WSep 25 · 10:40J. Jnr1.36811101142L. Snr3.00117128113LSep 25 · 10:10P. Sturma1.731111113L. Snr2.007480LSep 22 · 08:43L. Snr1.8381090J. Sevecek1.831112113LSep 22 · 08:10J. Matus1.3311911113L. Snr3.25411481WSep 22 · 07:10L. Snr2.2091111113J. Sevecek1.61115961
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