TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Mykhailo Dunas vs Orest Melnik 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
511711711––––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:48 and never touched: 57.7% is still 57.7%
Graded at full timeOrest Melnik to win
57.7%
57.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMykhailo Dunas above · Orest Melnik below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 52 set 3, 7-11 · our read held Orest Melnik at 57.7%
52 points played in total.
H2H Mykhailo Dunas 0–1 Orest Melnik Mykhailo Dunas has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:4857.7%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 4.2pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Melnik
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Dunas 1218 vs Melnik 1247
Melnik
Correct
both rated, 29 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dunas 60% vs Melnik 40%
Dunas
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dunas 60% vs Melnik 40%
Dunas
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Dunas -1 · Melnik +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% · Slight lean (leans Melnik) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Melnik form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDunas 2.20 / Melnik 1.615
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Melnik)-4.2pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13240552
Dunas2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 02)
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog36% won 20 of 55
Down 0–1, comes back22% 8 of 37
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 19
Melnik1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 11 days ago (Sep 23) · back after a break
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite73% won 48 of 66
Up 2–0, closes it96% 25 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it93% 40 of 43
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeDunas0wins
AwayMelnik1wins
Melnik leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricDunasMelnikD − MBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match32.040.0−8.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDunasMelnikBasisWin rate · lifetime53 / 108 vs 167 / 36149.1%46.3%53 / 108 vs 167 / 361Avg sets wonper match2.01.8per matchAvg pointsper match36.835.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MelnikDunas 2.20/Melnik 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.7%
Melnik · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Melnik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LAug 4 · 16:53M. Dunas32851181O. Melnik4011117113
M. Dunas10
LOct 2 · 18:55M. Dunas2.5011115942O. Maksymkiv1.50671111113WOct 2 · 16:55H. Oliynyk1.912670M. Dunas1.801111113WOct 2 · 14:55O. Maslovskyi2.506650M. Dunas1.501111113WOct 2 · 13:55M. Dunas2.20511114113V. Hel1.6111881192LOct 2 · 12:55A. Nikolenko2.7591111113M. Dunas1.40116871WOct 1 · 10:55A. Nikolenko2.63101740M. Dunas1.441219113LOct 1 · 09:55O. Maksymkiv1.61651111113M. Dunas2.2011116382WOct 1 · 08:25V. Salivonchyk1.61114371M. Dunas2.2081111113LOct 1 · 06:25O. Maslovskyi2.75111311113M. Dunas1.40615681WOct 1 · 04:25M. Treschetka1.918770M. Dunas1.801111113
O. Melnik10
WSep 23 · 11:25O. Melnik1.501110118113O. Maksymkiv2.5091221152LSep 23 · 09:25A. Dulich1.36119812113O. Melnik3.00811111062LSep 23 · 07:25S. Kryvoshyi1.33118511113O. Melnik3.2541111762LSep 23 · 06:25O. Melnik1.7351350D. Kozoriz2.001115113WSep 23 · 05:25V. Hel1.4410760O. Melnik2.631211113LSep 22 · 18:25O. Melnik2.006890D. Kasian1.731111113LSep 22 · 16:25V. Hel1.571111113O. Melnik2.259640WSep 22 · 15:25O. Melnik1.801211133D. Kozoriz1.91109110WSep 22 · 14:25S. Kryvoshyi1.3012911942O. Melnik3.401011611113LSep 22 · 12:55O. Melnik6.506690K. Tkachenko1.101111113
Upcoming Matches
M. Dunas
O. Melnik
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.