TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Karol Sulkowski vs Arkadiusz Mugowski 0-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
8111012911––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:25 and never touched: 58.0% is still 58.0%
Graded at full timeArkadiusz Mugowski to win
58.0%
58.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
61 points played in total.
Set by set
8111012911––––
H2H Karol Sulkowski 21–23 Arkadiusz Mugowski Karol Sulkowski has won 21 of their 44 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:2558.0%Our read62.5%to break even at 1.60
short by 4.5pp62.5% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.60 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.60 (57%)
Mugowski
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
21-23 in 44
Mugowski
Correct
gap of 2 in 44, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sulkowski 1299 vs Mugowski 1392
Mugowski
Correct
both rated, 92 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sulkowski 60% vs Mugowski 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sulkowski 40% vs Mugowski 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sulkowski +2 · Mugowski +3
Mugowski
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% · Slight lean (leans Mugowski) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sulkowski form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSulkowski 2.10 / Mugowski 1.60
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Mugowski)-4.5pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13240427
Sulkowski2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog35% won 133 of 376
Down 0–1, comes back16% 36 of 229
Down 0–2, comes back1% 1 of 125
Mugowski1.60
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite57% won 103 of 180
Up 2–0, closes it94% 49 of 52
Up 1–0, closes it79% 78 of 99
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSulkowski4wins
AwayMugowski6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderMugowski leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSulkowski66.7%4 of 6
AwayMugowski100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sulkowski6Mugowski4n = 10Sulkowski took 6 of 10
S2Sulkowski4Mugowski6n = 10Mugowski took 6 of 10
S3Sulkowski4Mugowski6n = 10Mugowski took 6 of 10
S4Sulkowski5Mugowski4n = 9Sulkowski took 5 of 9
S5Sulkowski1Mugowski3n = 4Mugowski took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSulkowskiMugowskiS − MBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match39.040.8−1.8per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSulkowskiMugowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime643 / 1304 vs 899 / 196149.3%45.8%643 / 1304 vs 899 / 1961Avg sets wonper match2.01.8per matchAvg pointsper match37.937.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MugowskiSulkowski 2.10/Mugowski 1.60
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58%
Mugowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Mugowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 21 · 03:25K. Sulkowski4411156123A. Mugowski4391311101
LJul 26 · 15:00K. Sulkowski4151161182A. Mugowski44114117113
LJun 26 · 06:05K. Sulkowski3911211692A. Mugowski48811711113
WJun 26 · 03:50K. Sulkowski3711411113A. Mugowski28611561
WJun 3 · 23:20K. Sulkowski4211119113A. Mugowski30691141
LJun 3 · 21:00K. Sulkowski228680A. Mugowski331111113
WJun 3 · 15:00K. Sulkowski551281113113A. Mugowski51101171582
LMay 31 · 10:20K. Sulkowski43114711102A. Mugowski50711119123
LMay 31 · 04:15K. Sulkowski30951151A. Mugowski4211119113
LMay 28 · 01:00K. Sulkowski371011791A. Mugowski3912511113
K. Sulkowski10
WOct 3 · 18:55K. Sulkowski1.80121110113M. Skorski1.901091291WOct 3 · 17:45K. Sulkowski1.771211113D. Poloszczanski1.9310780LOct 3 · 16:15K. Sulkowski1.688149111A. Eliasz2.05111211133WOct 3 · 15:00K. Sulkowski1.83111187113M. Trela1.8788111182LOct 3 · 00:10K. Sulkowski2.40681171J. Glanowski1.5011117113LOct 2 · 23:20K. Sulkowski1.854870M. Trela1.851111113WOct 2 · 21:55K. Sulkowski2.5211911113J. Lamperski1.47811471LOct 2 · 21:30K. Sulkowski1.8011611432D. Poloszczanski1.90611611113LOct 2 · 20:30M. Trela1.781111113K. Sulkowski1.917960LOct 2 · 19:20K. Sulkowski2.87119991J. Glanowski1.3781111113
A. Mugowski10
WOct 3 · 19:20A. Mugowski1.5811811113M. Trela2.25711551WOct 3 · 18:10M. Skorski2.205780A. Mugowski1.601111113WOct 3 · 16:55D. Poloszczanski2.35881161A. Mugowski1.5311116113LOct 3 · 15:25A. Eliasz2.6091112113A. Mugowski1.441181081LOct 1 · 20:05J. Glanowski1.91119116213A. Mugowski1.80611811192LOct 1 · 19:15D. Solilo1.50119811113A. Mugowski2.5071111962LOct 1 · 17:20A. Linek1.5712115133A. Mugowski2.2510911111WOct 1 · 16:30D. Kosmal1.501112981A. Mugowski2.5091411113LOct 1 · 15:00K. Staszczyk1.281111113A. Mugowski3.504470WOct 1 · 13:55M. Minda1.57312111072A. Mugowski2.201110912113
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