TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Karol Sulkowski vs Dawid Poloszczanski 3-0 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1210117118––––
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:36 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeKarol Sulkowski to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
59 points played in total.
Set by set
1210117118––––
H2H Karol Sulkowski 13–10 Dawid Poloszczanski Dawid Poloszczanski has won 10 of their 23 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:3654.0%Our read56.5%to break even at 1.77
short by 2.5pp56.5% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.77 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.77 (52%)
Sulkowski
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
13-10 in 23
Sulkowski
Correct
gap of 3 in 23, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sulkowski 1275 vs Poloszczanski 1229
Sulkowski
Correct
both rated, 46 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sulkowski 40% vs Poloszczanski 20%
Sulkowski
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sulkowski 30% vs Poloszczanski 20%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sulkowski -1 · Poloszczanski -4
Poloszczanski
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Sulkowski) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Poloszczanski form (20%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSulkowski 1.77 / Poloszczanski 1.93
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Sulkowski)-2.5pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13239624
Sulkowski1.77
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite55% won 170 of 312
Up 2–0, closes it96% 69 of 72
Up 1–0, closes it78% 130 of 166
Poloszczanski1.93
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog38% won 118 of 313
Down 0–1, comes back22% 40 of 186
Down 0–2, comes back4% 4 of 110
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSulkowski5wins
AwayPoloszczanski5wins
6 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSulkowski40%2 of 5
AwayPoloszczanski40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sulkowski5Poloszczanski5n = 10split evenly
S2Sulkowski5Poloszczanski5n = 10split evenly
S3Sulkowski6Poloszczanski4n = 10Sulkowski took 6 of 10
S4Sulkowski2Poloszczanski8n = 10Poloszczanski took 8 of 10
S5Sulkowski4Poloszczanski2n = 6Sulkowski took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSulkowskiPoloszczanskiS − PBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.741.8−2.1per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSulkowskiPoloszczanskiBasisWin rate · lifetime641 / 1302 vs 354 / 87249.2%40.6%641 / 1302 vs 354 / 872Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.938.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SulkowskiSulkowski 1.77/Poloszczanski 1.93
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Sulkowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Sulkowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 2 · 21:30K. Sulkowski3511611432D. Poloszczanski45611611113
LSep 11 · 22:35K. Sulkowski3711311752D. Poloszczanski44511611113
WSep 5 · 00:35K. Sulkowski4111118113D. Poloszczanski32681171
WJul 26 · 01:00K. Sulkowski45111157113D. Poloszczanski4184111172
LJul 25 · 22:35K. Sulkowski29651171D. Poloszczanski4011117113
WJul 11 · 08:05K. Sulkowski531011911123D. Poloszczanski43126114102
LJul 11 · 05:35K. Sulkowski331151071D. Poloszczanski3731112113
LJun 1 · 16:45K. Sulkowski361071181D. Poloszczanski4312119113
WMay 17 · 06:30K. Sulkowski45611116113D. Poloszczanski4311971152
WMay 16 · 08:10K. Sulkowski43413114113D. Poloszczanski50111191182
K. Sulkowski10
LOct 3 · 16:15K. Sulkowski1.688149111A. Eliasz2.05111211133WOct 3 · 15:00K. Sulkowski1.83111187113M. Trela1.8788111182LOct 3 · 00:10K. Sulkowski2.40681171J. Glanowski1.5011117113LOct 2 · 23:20K. Sulkowski1.854870M. Trela1.851111113WOct 2 · 21:55K. Sulkowski2.5211911113J. Lamperski1.47811471LOct 2 · 21:30K. Sulkowski1.8011611432D. Poloszczanski1.90611611113LOct 2 · 20:30M. Trela1.781111113K. Sulkowski1.917960LOct 2 · 19:20K. Sulkowski2.87119991J. Glanowski1.3781111113WOct 2 · 18:10P. Strus2.352149121K. Sulkowski1.53111211143LOct 2 · 16:55D. Szlubowski1.671111123K. Sulkowski2.1046100
D. Poloszczanski10
LOct 3 · 16:55D. Poloszczanski2.35881161A. Mugowski1.5311116113LOct 3 · 15:50D. Poloszczanski2.05881161M. Skorski1.6611116113LOct 3 · 08:10D. Poloszczanski1.9051191182P. Krukar1.82119117113LOct 3 · 06:30M. Lukaszewski1.8391111133D. Poloszczanski1.871196111WOct 3 · 05:40W. Suchecki2.0010101181D. Poloszczanski1.7112127113LOct 3 · 04:55D. Poloszczanski1.75118111182J. Rolak1.97811135113WOct 3 · 03:50D. Poloszczanski1.80891112123M. Zwolinski1.901111510102LOct 3 · 00:35J. Lamperski1.501111133D. Poloszczanski2.3578110LOct 2 · 22:55J. Glanowski1.5711114113D. Poloszczanski2.20771191WOct 2 · 21:30K. Sulkowski1.8011611432D. Poloszczanski1.90611611113
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