TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Karol Sulkowski vs Mateusz Trela 3-2 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
118118811711118
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:56 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMateusz Trela to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
94 points played in total.
Set by set
118118811711118
H2H Karol Sulkowski 17–16 Mateusz Trela Mateusz Trela has won 16 of their 33 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:5654.0%Our read53.5%to break even at 1.87
clears by 0.5pp53.5% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.87 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (51%)
Sulkowski
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
17-16 in 33
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sulkowski 1276 vs Trela 1289
Trela
Wrong
both rated, 13 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sulkowski 20% vs Trela 60%
Trela
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sulkowski 30% vs Trela 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sulkowski -2 · Trela +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Trela) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sulkowski form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSulkowski 1.83 / Trela 1.87
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Trela)+0.5pp
TT Elite Series · #13235881
Sulkowski1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite55% won 170 of 312
Up 2–0, closes it96% 69 of 72
Up 1–0, closes it78% 130 of 166
Trela1.87
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog43% won 138 of 321
Down 0–1, comes back27% 48 of 175
Down 0–2, comes back9% 8 of 85
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSulkowski4wins
AwayTrela6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderTrela leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSulkowski40%2 of 5
AwayTrela60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sulkowski5Trela5n = 10split evenly
S2Sulkowski6Trela4n = 10Sulkowski took 6 of 10
S3Sulkowski4Trela6n = 10Trela took 6 of 10
S4Sulkowski2Trela4n = 6Trela took 4 of 6
S5Sulkowski1Trela3n = 4Trela took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricSulkowskiTrelaS − TBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match36.838.8−2.0per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSulkowskiTrelaBasisWin rate · lifetime640 / 1300 vs 805 / 164349.2%49%640 / 1300 vs 805 / 1643Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.938.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
TrelaSulkowski 1.83/Trela 1.87
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Trela · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Sulkowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 2 · 23:20K. Sulkowski194870M. Trela331111113
LOct 2 · 20:30K. Sulkowski227960M. Trela331111113
LSep 3 · 21:30K. Sulkowski218580M. Trela331111113
WSep 3 · 17:45K. Sulkowski4311138113M. Trela398111191
WAug 24 · 21:55K. Sulkowski331111113M. Trela248970
LAug 23 · 04:30K. Sulkowski45111149102M. Trela49871111123
LAug 14 · 06:30K. Sulkowski4411116882M. Trela47681111113
WAug 10 · 07:40K. Sulkowski511111117113M. Trela4413861162
LAug 8 · 05:15K. Sulkowski4612611982M. Trela481011511113
WAug 5 · 07:40K. Sulkowski4491111133M. Trela381179111
K. Sulkowski10
LOct 3 · 16:15K. Sulkowski1.688149111A. Eliasz2.05111211133LOct 3 · 00:10K. Sulkowski2.40681171J. Glanowski1.5011117113LOct 2 · 23:20K. Sulkowski1.854870M. Trela1.851111113WOct 2 · 21:55K. Sulkowski2.5211911113J. Lamperski1.47811471LOct 2 · 21:30K. Sulkowski1.8011611432D. Poloszczanski1.90611611113LOct 2 · 20:30M. Trela1.781111113K. Sulkowski1.917960LOct 2 · 19:20K. Sulkowski2.87119991J. Glanowski1.3781111113WOct 2 · 18:10P. Strus2.352149121K. Sulkowski1.53111211143LOct 2 · 16:55D. Szlubowski1.671111123K. Sulkowski2.1046100WOct 2 · 15:25K. Klocek1.70118461K. Sulkowski2.0091111113
M. Trela10
LOct 3 · 16:35M. Skorski1.801111113M. Trela1.869860WOct 2 · 23:20K. Sulkowski1.854870M. Trela1.851111113LOct 2 · 22:35J. Lamperski1.45111211123M. Trela2.508142101WOct 2 · 22:15M. Trela1.85891111113D. Poloszczanski1.8511118692LOct 2 · 21:05J. Glanowski1.5015117113M. Trela2.351371181WOct 2 · 20:30M. Trela1.781111113K. Sulkowski1.917960LOct 2 · 18:55M. Trela1.551191281P. Strus2.2581114113LOct 2 · 17:45M. Trela1.9511113992D. Szlubowski1.75811111113LOct 2 · 16:15M. Trela1.9512571172K. Klocek1.701011116113LOct 2 · 15:00M. Trela2.35118661J. Glanowski1.5251111113
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.