TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Karol Sulkowski vs Dawid Poloszczanski 2-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
116611116411311
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:25 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeKarol Sulkowski to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
80 points played in total.
Set by set
116611116411311
H2H Karol Sulkowski 13–9 Dawid Poloszczanski Dawid Poloszczanski has won 9 of their 22 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:2554.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Sulkowski
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
13-9 in 22
Sulkowski
Wrong
gap of 4 in 22, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sulkowski 1290 vs Poloszczanski 1278
Sulkowski
Wrong
both rated, 13 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sulkowski 40% vs Poloszczanski 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sulkowski 40% vs Poloszczanski 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sulkowski -2 · Poloszczanski -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Sulkowski) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Poloszczanski form (40%) is below what odds imply (53%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSulkowski 1.80 / Poloszczanski 1.90
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Sulkowski)-1.6pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13229347
Sulkowski1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite54% won 171 of 316
Up 2–0, closes it96% 70 of 73
Up 1–0, closes it78% 130 of 166
Poloszczanski1.90
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 01)
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog38% won 120 of 315
Down 0–1, comes back22% 40 of 186
Down 0–2, comes back4% 4 of 108
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSulkowski6wins
AwayPoloszczanski4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderSulkowski leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSulkowski60%3 of 5
AwayPoloszczanski40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sulkowski5Poloszczanski5n = 10split evenly
S2Sulkowski6Poloszczanski4n = 10Sulkowski took 6 of 10
S3Sulkowski5Poloszczanski5n = 10split evenly
S4Sulkowski3Poloszczanski7n = 10Poloszczanski took 7 of 10
S5Sulkowski4Poloszczanski1n = 5Sulkowski took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSulkowskiPoloszczanskiS − PBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.741.3−0.6per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSulkowskiPoloszczanskiBasisWin rate · lifetime639 / 1296 vs 351 / 86149.3%40.8%639 / 1296 vs 351 / 861Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.938.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SulkowskiSulkowski 1.80/Poloszczanski 1.90
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Sulkowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Poloszczanski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 11 · 22:35K. Sulkowski3711311752D. Poloszczanski44511611113
WSep 5 · 00:35K. Sulkowski4111118113D. Poloszczanski32681171
WJul 26 · 01:00K. Sulkowski45111157113D. Poloszczanski4184111172
LJul 25 · 22:35K. Sulkowski29651171D. Poloszczanski4011117113
WJul 11 · 08:05K. Sulkowski531011911123D. Poloszczanski43126114102
LJul 11 · 05:35K. Sulkowski331151071D. Poloszczanski3731112113
LJun 1 · 16:45K. Sulkowski361071181D. Poloszczanski4312119113
WMay 17 · 06:30K. Sulkowski45611116113D. Poloszczanski4311971152
WMay 16 · 08:10K. Sulkowski43413114113D. Poloszczanski50111191182
WMay 10 · 11:25K. Sulkowski45131110113D. Poloszczanski401181291
K. Sulkowski10
WOct 2 · 21:55K. Sulkowski2.5211911113J. Lamperski1.47811471LOct 2 · 20:30M. Trela1.781111113K. Sulkowski1.917960LOct 2 · 19:20K. Sulkowski2.87119991J. Glanowski1.3781111113WOct 2 · 18:10P. Strus2.352149121K. Sulkowski1.53111211143LOct 2 · 16:55D. Szlubowski1.671111123K. Sulkowski2.1046100WOct 2 · 15:25K. Klocek1.70118461K. Sulkowski2.0091111113LOct 1 · 08:10M. Kukawka1.4511111110113K. Sulkowski2.5086131282LOct 1 · 07:20R. Stapor1.46111111113K. Sulkowski2.55651361WOct 1 · 05:15B. Warpas2.009890K. Sulkowski1.701111113WOct 1 · 04:30M. Lukaszewski1.85109110K. Sulkowski1.801211133
D. Poloszczanski10
LOct 2 · 22:15M. Trela1.85891111113D. Poloszczanski1.8511118692LOct 1 · 00:10K. Klocek1.801111133D. Poloszczanski1.9095110LSep 30 · 23:45D. Poloszczanski2.306670J. Lamperski1.521111113WSep 30 · 22:55D. Poloszczanski1.801111108113D. Kotwica1.9189121192LSep 30 · 21:05D. Poloszczanski1.764870M. Kowalczyk1.951111113WSep 30 · 20:05D. Kotwica2.0561090D. Poloszczanski1.701112113WSep 30 · 19:20M. Kowalczyk2.10117111382D. Poloszczanski1.601311911113LSep 30 · 17:20J. Lamperski1.5211138133D. Poloszczanski2.3071111111WSep 30 · 16:40P. Strus2.401169101D. Poloszczanski1.4771111123LSep 30 · 15:00K. Klocek1.609111114163D. Poloszczanski2.15115916142
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.