TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Dawid Poloszczanski vs Arkadiusz Mugowski 1-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
811811116611––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:53 and never touched: 63.4% is still 63.4%
Graded at full timeArkadiusz Mugowski to win
63.4%
63.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
72 points played in total.
Set by set
811811116611––
H2H Dawid Poloszczanski 10–20 Arkadiusz Mugowski Dawid Poloszczanski has won 10 of their 30 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:5363.4%Our read65.4%to break even at 1.53
short by 2.0pp65.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.53 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Mugowski
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
10-20 in 30
Mugowski
Correct
gap of 10 in 30, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Poloszczanski 1237 vs Mugowski 1361
Mugowski
Correct
both rated, 123 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Poloszczanski 20% vs Mugowski 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Poloszczanski 30% vs Mugowski 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Poloszczanski -3 · Mugowski -4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% · Clear lean (leans Mugowski) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mugowski form (20%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPoloszczanski 2.35 / Mugowski 1.53
Signal prob.37% / 63%
Edge (Mugowski)-2.0pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13239514
Poloszczanski2.35
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog38% won 118 of 313
Down 0–1, comes back22% 40 of 186
Down 0–2, comes back4% 4 of 110
Mugowski1.53
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite57% won 103 of 180
Up 2–0, closes it94% 49 of 52
Up 1–0, closes it79% 78 of 99
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePoloszczanski2wins
AwayMugowski8wins
3 of 10 to a deciderMugowski leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePoloszczanski66.7%2 of 3
AwayMugowski100%7 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Poloszczanski3Mugowski7n = 10Mugowski took 7 of 10
S2Poloszczanski2Mugowski8n = 10Mugowski took 8 of 10
S3Poloszczanski4Mugowski6n = 10Mugowski took 6 of 10
S4Poloszczanski4Mugowski4n = 8split evenly
S5Poloszczanski1Mugowski2n = 3Mugowski took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricPoloszczanskiMugowskiP − MBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match37.844.0−6.2per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPoloszczanskiMugowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime354 / 871 vs 896 / 195840.6%45.8%354 / 871 vs 896 / 1958Avg sets wonper match1.91.8per matchAvg pointsper match38.737.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MugowskiPoloszczanski 2.35/Mugowski 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.4%
Mugowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Mugowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 27 · 00:10D. Poloszczanski3711511101A. Mugowski4213116123
LSep 26 · 15:25D. Poloszczanski46115131162A. Mugowski55911159113
LAug 16 · 05:15D. Poloszczanski53161371162A. Mugowski591811118113
LJun 14 · 07:45D. Poloszczanski2385100A. Mugowski341111123
LJun 13 · 14:20D. Poloszczanski344911101A. Mugowski4211118123
WJun 13 · 04:10D. Poloszczanski50118411163A. Mugowski50911115142
LMay 10 · 12:40D. Poloszczanski366101191A. Mugowski4311129113
LMay 9 · 05:15D. Poloszczanski361112491A. Mugowski45131011113
LApr 18 · 12:40D. Poloszczanski2710980A. Mugowski341211113
WApr 11 · 12:40D. Poloszczanski3611311113A. Mugowski36811891
D. Poloszczanski10
LOct 3 · 17:45K. Sulkowski1.771211113D. Poloszczanski1.9310780LOct 3 · 15:50D. Poloszczanski2.05881161M. Skorski1.6611116113LOct 3 · 08:10D. Poloszczanski1.9051191182P. Krukar1.82119117113LOct 3 · 06:30M. Lukaszewski1.8391111133D. Poloszczanski1.871196111WOct 3 · 05:40W. Suchecki2.0010101181D. Poloszczanski1.7112127113LOct 3 · 04:55D. Poloszczanski1.75118111182J. Rolak1.97811135113WOct 3 · 03:50D. Poloszczanski1.80891112123M. Zwolinski1.901111510102LOct 3 · 00:35J. Lamperski1.501111133D. Poloszczanski2.3578110LOct 2 · 22:55J. Glanowski1.5711114113D. Poloszczanski2.20771191LOct 2 · 22:15M. Trela1.85891111113D. Poloszczanski1.8511118692
A. Mugowski10
LOct 3 · 15:25A. Eliasz2.6091112113A. Mugowski1.441181081LOct 1 · 20:05J. Glanowski1.91119116213A. Mugowski1.80611811192LOct 1 · 19:15D. Solilo1.50119811113A. Mugowski2.5071111962LOct 1 · 17:20A. Linek1.5712115133A. Mugowski2.2510911111WOct 1 · 16:30D. Kosmal1.501112981A. Mugowski2.5091411113LOct 1 · 15:00K. Staszczyk1.281111113A. Mugowski3.504470WOct 1 · 13:55M. Minda1.57312111072A. Mugowski2.201110912113LOct 1 · 13:05D. Kosmal1.40471112113A. Mugowski2.65111121092WOct 1 · 12:15A. Mugowski2.62911911113B. Czerwinski1.4411911892LOct 1 · 10:35A. Mugowski2.45811891J. Zochniak1.4911811113
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