TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Jakub Glanowski vs Arkadiusz Mugowski 3-2 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1169111186112119
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:04 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJakub Glanowski to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingJakub Glanowski above · Arkadiusz Mugowski below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 21-19
Point 113 set 5, 21-19 · our read held Jakub Glanowski at 54.0%
113 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Glanowski 59–56 Arkadiusz Mugowski Arkadiusz Mugowski has won 56 of their 115 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:0454.0%Our read52.4%to break even at 1.909
clears by 1.6pp52.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.909 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Mugowski
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
59-56 in 115
Glanowski
Correct
gap of 3 in 115, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Glanowski 1456 vs Mugowski 1378
Glanowski
Correct
both rated, 78 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Glanowski 40% vs Mugowski 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Glanowski 50% vs Mugowski 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Glanowski +1 · Mugowski -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Glanowski) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mugowski form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGlanowski 1.909 / Mugowski 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Glanowski)+1.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13227965
Glanowski1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog38% won 126 of 330
Down 0–1, comes back20% 34 of 169
Down 0–2, comes back3% 3 of 92
Mugowski1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite58% won 105 of 182
Up 2–0, closes it94% 51 of 54
Up 1–0, closes it79% 80 of 101
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGlanowski5wins
AwayMugowski5wins
6 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGlanowski60%3 of 5
AwayMugowski60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Glanowski5Mugowski5n = 10split evenly
S2Glanowski6Mugowski4n = 10Glanowski took 6 of 10
S3Glanowski3Mugowski7n = 10Mugowski took 7 of 10
S4Glanowski6Mugowski2n = 8Glanowski took 6 of 8
S5Glanowski3Mugowski3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricGlanowskiMugowskiG − MBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match43.044.4−1.4per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGlanowskiMugowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime881 / 1768 vs 902 / 196849.8%45.8%881 / 1768 vs 902 / 1968Avg sets wonper match2.01.8per matchAvg pointsper match38.937.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
GlanowskiGlanowski 1.91/Mugowski 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Glanowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Glanowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 26 · 21:30J. Glanowski44013911113A. Mugowski49111111792
LSep 26 · 16:55J. Glanowski35691281A. Mugowski43111110113
LAug 23 · 03:20J. Glanowski51116811152A. Mugowski54811117173
LAug 9 · 22:15J. Glanowski4431561372A. Mugowski5711131111113
WAug 9 · 20:05J. Glanowski60812911203A. Mugowski581110118182
WJul 26 · 16:15J. Glanowski341111123A. Mugowski2596100
LJun 10 · 23:45J. Glanowski344111181A. Mugowski4411913113
WJun 10 · 21:20J. Glanowski331111113A. Mugowski204970
LJun 10 · 17:45J. Glanowski481110101162A. Mugowski48412129113
WMay 23 · 20:10J. Glanowski471141011113A. Mugowski4681112692
J. Glanowski10
LOct 1 · 21:00J. Glanowski3.256950K. Staszczyk1.331111113WOct 1 · 18:30A. Linek1.61991312122J. Glanowski2.2011111110143LOct 1 · 17:40K. Staszczyk1.331111123J. Glanowski3.2587100LOct 1 · 16:55J. Glanowski2.0055111192D. Solilo1.73111190113LOct 1 · 15:45J. Glanowski2.001112781D. Kosmal1.7391411113WSep 29 · 00:10J. Glanowski1.6711118113B. Kwodawski2.10951151WSep 28 · 23:20J. Glanowski3.401211611113J. Mitas1.3014911492WSep 28 · 21:49J. Glanowski1.61911112113J. Nadolny2.2011351192LSep 28 · 21:25J. Glanowski1.731111361K. Rudomina2.0091115113LSep 28 · 20:30J. Mitas1.4441111123J. Glanowski2.631164101
A. Mugowski10
LOct 1 · 19:15D. Solilo1.50119811113A. Mugowski2.5071111962LOct 1 · 17:20A. Linek1.5712115133A. Mugowski2.2510911111WOct 1 · 16:30D. Kosmal1.501112981A. Mugowski2.5091411113LOct 1 · 15:00K. Staszczyk1.281111113A. Mugowski3.504470WOct 1 · 13:55M. Minda1.57312111072A. Mugowski2.201110912113LOct 1 · 13:05D. Kosmal1.40471112113A. Mugowski2.65111121092WOct 1 · 12:15A. Mugowski2.62911911113B. Czerwinski1.4411911892LOct 1 · 10:35A. Mugowski2.45811891J. Zochniak1.4911811113LOct 1 · 09:50R. Stapor1.6314131112113A. Mugowski2.151215131082WSep 27 · 00:10A. Mugowski1.6813116123D. Poloszczanski2.0511511101
Upcoming Matches
J. Glanowski
Oct 1 · 22:55J. Glanowski2.00A. Linek1.73—Oct 1 · 23:45J. Glanowski1.73B. Sulkowski2.00—Oct 2 · 00:10J. Glanowski2.00D. Solilo1.73—Oct 2 · 15:00J. Glanowski—M. Trela——Oct 2 · 16:35J. Glanowski—P. Strus——Oct 2 · 17:20J. Glanowski—K. Klocek——Oct 2 · 19:20J. Glanowski—K. Sulkowski——Oct 2 · 20:05J. Glanowski—D. Szlubowski——Oct 2 · 21:05J. Glanowski—M. Trela——Oct 2 · 22:55J. Glanowski—D. Poloszczanski——
A. Mugowski
Nothing scheduled
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