TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Rafal Stapor vs Arkadiusz Mugowski 3-2 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1412131511131210118
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:47 and never touched: 57.2% is still 57.2%
Graded at full timeRafal Stapor to win
57.2%
57.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
119 points played in total.
Set by set
1412131511131210118
H2H Rafal Stapor 16–10 Arkadiusz Mugowski Arkadiusz Mugowski has won 10 of their 26 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:4757.2%Our read61.3%to break even at 1.63
short by 4.1pp61.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.63 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.63 (57%)
Stapor
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
16-10 in 26
Stapor
Correct
gap of 6 in 26, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stapor 1410 vs Mugowski 1377
Stapor
Correct
both rated, 33 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stapor 80% vs Mugowski 60%
Stapor
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stapor 40% vs Mugowski 60%
Mugowski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stapor -1 · Mugowski +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans Stapor) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mugowski form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (47%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStapor 1.63 / Mugowski 2.15
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Stapor)-4.1pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13227087
Stapor1.63
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
22%takes the first set · 2 of 9
As favourite62% won 371 of 600
Up 2–0, closes it96% 191 of 200
Up 1–0, closes it80% 286 of 359
Mugowski2.15
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 4 days ago (Sep 27)
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog41% won 164 of 403
Down 0–1, comes back26% 64 of 243
Down 0–2, comes back15% 20 of 132
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStapor5wins
AwayMugowski5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStapor71.4%5 of 7
AwayMugowski100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stapor7Mugowski3n = 10Stapor took 7 of 10
S2Stapor5Mugowski5n = 10split evenly
S3Stapor6Mugowski4n = 10Stapor took 6 of 10
S4Stapor5Mugowski3n = 8Stapor took 5 of 8
S5Stapor0Mugowski3n = 3Mugowski took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricStaporMugowskiS − MBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match39.035.5+3.5per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStaporMugowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime711 / 1261 vs 905 / 197356.4%45.9%711 / 1261 vs 905 / 1973Avg sets wonper match2.21.8per matchAvg pointsper match38.737.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
StaporStapor 1.63/Mugowski 2.15
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.2%
Stapor · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Stapor won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 24 · 09:50R. Stapor491011116112A. Mugowski51128711133
WSep 24 · 07:20R. Stapor331111113A. Mugowski226790
WSep 3 · 13:55R. Stapor341111123A. Mugowski2394100
LSep 3 · 08:35R. Stapor30411961A. Mugowski3811511113
WAug 30 · 23:45R. Stapor3611113113A. Mugowski28721181
LAug 23 · 04:50R. Stapor52111191292A. Mugowski505131110113
WAug 21 · 12:15R. Stapor43111011113A. Mugowski31712481
WJul 26 · 23:20R. Stapor3811511113A. Mugowski27411751
LJul 26 · 21:00R. Stapor4779111192A. Mugowski44111174113
LJun 11 · 18:30R. Stapor28116921A. Mugowski4181111113
R. Stapor10
LOct 1 · 08:35M. Minda1.80113118113R. Stapor1.8571121182WOct 1 · 07:20R. Stapor1.46111111113K. Sulkowski2.55651361WOct 1 · 06:20M. Lukaszewski2.851110651R. Stapor1.3531211113WOct 1 · 04:55M. Kukawka1.55129611122R. Stapor2.251011114143WOct 1 · 03:25B. Warpas2.6591550R. Stapor1.421117113LSep 30 · 14:40R. Stapor3.001J. Zochniak1.353LSep 30 · 13:05R. Stapor2.5281141142M. Kolek1.47115117113LSep 30 · 11:50R. Stapor2.8591170B. Czerwinski1.351113113LSep 30 · 10:10R. Stapor1.6011128111M. Zwolinski2.15131011133LSep 30 · 09:00R. Stapor2.01711731M. Minda1.6311411113
A. Mugowski10
LOct 1 · 10:35A. Mugowski2.45811891J. Zochniak1.4911811113WSep 27 · 00:10A. Mugowski1.6813116123D. Poloszczanski2.0511511101LSep 26 · 23:20A. Mugowski1.5511811782D. Kotwica2.25811711113WSep 26 · 21:55A. Mugowski2.30111110113K. Rudomina1.55891271LSep 26 · 21:30A. Mugowski1.75111111792J. Glanowski1.95013911113WSep 26 · 20:30D. Kotwica1.906580A. Mugowski1.801111113WSep 26 · 19:20A. Mugowski1.54711311113K. Guminski2.2511611982LSep 26 · 18:10T. Filbrandt1.3011811133A. Mugowski3.208114111WSep 26 · 16:55J. Glanowski1.85691281A. Mugowski1.80111110113WSep 26 · 15:25D. Poloszczanski2.05115131162A. Mugowski1.66911159113
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