TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Adrian Eliasz vs Arkadiusz Mugowski 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
9111181210118––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:19 and never touched: 67.6% is still 67.6%
Graded at full timeArkadiusz Mugowski to win
67.6%
67.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
80 points played in total.
Set by set
9111181210118––
H2H Adrian Eliasz 26–32 Arkadiusz Mugowski Adrian Eliasz has won 26 of their 58 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:1967.6%Our read69.4%to break even at 1.44
short by 1.8pp69.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.44 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (64%)
Mugowski
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
26-32 in 58
Mugowski
Wrong
gap of 6 in 58, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Eliasz 1272 vs Mugowski 1378
Mugowski
Wrong
both rated, 106 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Eliasz 80% vs Mugowski 20%
Eliasz
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Eliasz 80% vs Mugowski 30%
Eliasz
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Eliasz +3 · Mugowski -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% · Clear lean (leans Mugowski) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mugowski form (20%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsEliasz 2.60 / Mugowski 1.44
Signal prob.32% / 68%
Edge (Mugowski)-1.8pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13233226
Eliasz2.60
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog32% won 64 of 198
Down 0–1, comes back17% 20 of 120
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 60
Mugowski1.44
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 01)
Lost last 3
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite57% won 103 of 180
Up 2–0, closes it94% 49 of 52
Up 1–0, closes it79% 78 of 99
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeEliasz4wins
AwayMugowski6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderMugowski leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeEliasz60%3 of 5
AwayMugowski80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Eliasz5Mugowski5n = 10split evenly
S2Eliasz6Mugowski4n = 10Eliasz took 6 of 10
S3Eliasz6Mugowski4n = 10Eliasz took 6 of 10
S4Eliasz1Mugowski7n = 8Mugowski took 7 of 8
S5Eliasz2Mugowski2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricEliaszMugowskiE − MBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.342.2−1.9per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricEliaszMugowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime346 / 898 vs 902 / 196838.5%45.8%346 / 898 vs 902 / 1968Avg sets wonper match1.81.8per matchAvg pointsper match37.337.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MugowskiEliasz 2.60/Mugowski 1.44
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
67.6%
Mugowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Eliasz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 20 · 18:10A. Eliasz4491141192A. Mugowski46118115113
LSep 19 · 18:30A. Eliasz32114891A. Mugowski3961111113
WJul 31 · 00:35A. Eliasz531113711113A. Mugowski50611111392
LJul 19 · 11:50A. Eliasz321061151A. Mugowski4312119113
LJul 19 · 05:40A. Eliasz30861151A. Mugowski3911116113
WJul 19 · 03:25A. Eliasz351311113A. Mugowski2711970
WJun 30 · 20:05A. Eliasz49811118113A. Mugowski4511591192
LMay 24 · 11:05A. Eliasz4712118882A. Mugowski521091111113
LMay 24 · 08:20A. Eliasz4171211111A. Mugowski4711149133
WApr 18 · 19:45A. Eliasz401114153A. Mugowski34912130
A. Eliasz10
WOct 3 · 14:40M. Zwolinski2.759912101A. Eliasz1.37111110123WOct 3 · 11:50A. Eliasz—851211113P. Krukar—111110982WOct 3 · 11:00M. Durda1.764111091A. Eliasz1.9511412113LOct 3 · 11:00W. Suchecki2.1711712113A. Eliasz1.629111061WOct 3 · 09:25J. Rolak2.207134101A. Eliasz1.57111111123LSep 27 · 13:55M. Skorski1.80121111113A. Eliasz1.85149871WSep 27 · 13:05F. Jablonski2.1011381282A. Eliasz1.636111110113WSep 27 · 12:15A. Eliasz2.05129811133M. Sinicki1.701011117112WSep 27 · 10:35A. Eliasz1.60111011113W. Suchecki2.10512591WSep 27 · 09:50T. Pisarczyk1.73751131A. Eliasz1.9811116113
A. Mugowski10
LOct 1 · 20:05J. Glanowski1.91119116213A. Mugowski1.80611811192LOct 1 · 19:15D. Solilo1.50119811113A. Mugowski2.5071111962LOct 1 · 17:20A. Linek1.5712115133A. Mugowski2.2510911111WOct 1 · 16:30D. Kosmal1.501112981A. Mugowski2.5091411113LOct 1 · 15:00K. Staszczyk1.281111113A. Mugowski3.504470WOct 1 · 13:55M. Minda1.57312111072A. Mugowski2.201110912113LOct 1 · 13:05D. Kosmal1.40471112113A. Mugowski2.65111121092WOct 1 · 12:15A. Mugowski2.62911911113B. Czerwinski1.4411911892LOct 1 · 10:35A. Mugowski2.45811891J. Zochniak1.4911811113LOct 1 · 09:50R. Stapor1.6314131112113A. Mugowski2.151215131082
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