TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Volodymyr Nechai vs Oleksandr Ovsiienko 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 4Finished
Volodymyr Nechai
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
118911119118––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:59 and never touched: 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Ovsiienko to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVolodymyr Nechai above · Oleksandr Ovsiienko below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 78 set 4, 11-8 · our read held Oleksandr Ovsiienko at 58.9%
78 points played in total.
H2H Volodymyr Nechai 0–1 Oleksandr Ovsiienko Volodymyr Nechai has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:5958.9%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 4.8pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Ovsiienko
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Nechai 1393 vs Ovsiienko 1372
Nechai
Correct
both rated, 21 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nechai 80% vs Ovsiienko 40%
Nechai
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nechai 60% vs Ovsiienko 30%
Nechai
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Nechai +3 · Ovsiienko -1
Nechai
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Ovsiienko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ovsiienko form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNechai 2.25 / Ovsiienko 1.571
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Ovsiienko)-4.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13240224
Nechai2.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Ovsiienko1.57
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite67% won 136 of 202
Up 2–0, closes it97% 88 of 91
Up 1–0, closes it86% 108 of 126
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeNechai0wins
AwayOvsiienko1wins
Ovsiienko leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away1
This 1 meeting
MetricNechaiOvsiienkoN − OBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match22.034.0−12.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNechaiOvsiienkoBasisWin rate · lifetime6 / 11 vs 459 / 89154.6%51.5%6 / 11 vs 459 / 891Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match40.836.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
OvsiienkoNechai 2.25/Ovsiienko 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.9%
Ovsiienko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Nechai won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LSep 20 · 12:00V. Nechai2251070O. Ovsiienko341112113
V. Nechai10
WOct 4 · 12:00V. Nechai2.10119115113M. Stetsenko1.6721181192WSep 27 · 12:05V. Nechai2.0081411113S. Semenets1.731112831WSep 27 · 10:05V. Stukalov1.9111116772V. Nechai1.80681111113LSep 27 · 08:05V. Mukhin1.731312711123V. Nechai2.001114115102WSep 27 · 07:05V. Nechai1.831110911113M. Khalenko1.8381211992WSep 27 · 06:05S. Kovalenko1.91811731V. Nechai1.8011711113LSep 20 · 18:00V. Nechai2.00741291S. Skhabitskiy1.73111110113LSep 20 · 16:29V. Nechai1.91611111062V. Smyk1.80112912113WSep 20 · 14:59V. Nechai1.83101111113D. Ponomarenko1.83126981LSep 20 · 13:32V. Nechai1.57112771O. Lipeiko2.2591111113
O. Ovsiienko10
LOct 4 · 12:30S. Baranskyi1.22118115113O. Ovsiienko4.0071131172WOct 1 · 12:20D. Ponomarenko3.2511126722O. Ovsiienko1.337101111113LOct 1 · 11:20M. Stetsenko1.731111113O. Ovsiienko2.009330LOct 1 · 09:50V. Melnykov2.251211113O. Ovsiienko1.5710760WOct 1 · 07:50O. Mytsyk1.8314791182O. Ovsiienko1.831211117113WOct 1 · 05:50S. Skhabitskiy2.0010750O. Ovsiienko1.731211113LSep 30 · 18:30V. Smyk1.501111113O. Ovsiienko2.505550LSep 30 · 17:30M. Stetsenko1.831111113O. Ovsiienko1.833750LSep 30 · 16:00S. Baranskyi1.5091111113O. Ovsiienko2.50113771LSep 30 · 14:00S. Skhabitskiy2.10611516123O. Ovsiienko1.671181114102
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