TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Valentyn Kurliuk vs Ihor Sorochan 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
118119114––––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:49 and never touched: 71.4% is still 71.4%
Graded at full timeIhor Sorochan to win
71.4%
71.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingValentyn Kurliuk above · Ihor Sorochan below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-4
Point 54 set 3, 11-4 · our read held Ihor Sorochan at 71.4%
54 points played in total.
H2H Valentyn Kurliuk 0–12 Ihor Sorochan Valentyn Kurliuk has won 0 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:4971.4%Our read76.9%to break even at 1.30
short by 5.5pp76.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.30 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Sorochan
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
0-12 in 12
Sorochan
Wrong
gap of 12 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kurliuk 1338 vs Sorochan 1291
Kurliuk
Correct
both rated, 47 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kurliuk 80% vs Sorochan 20%
Kurliuk
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kurliuk 70% vs Sorochan 30%
Kurliuk
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kurliuk +3 · Sorochan +1
Kurliuk
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% · Strong (leans Sorochan) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sorochan form (20%) is below what odds imply (77%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKurliuk 3.40 / Sorochan 1.30
Signal prob.29% / 71%
Edge (Sorochan)-5.5pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13240184
Kurliuk3.40
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog21% won 9 of 44
Down 0–1, comes back7% 2 of 31
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 19
Sorochan1.30
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite69% won 59 of 85
Up 2–0, closes it92% 33 of 36
Up 1–0, closes it82% 50 of 61
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKurliuk0wins
AwaySorochan10wins
2 of 10 to a deciderSorochan leads 10–0, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKurliukn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwaySorochan100%9 of 9
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kurliuk1Sorochan9n = 10Sorochan took 9 of 10
S2Kurliuk3Sorochan7n = 10Sorochan took 7 of 10
S3Kurliuk1Sorochan9n = 10Sorochan took 9 of 10
S4Kurliuk2Sorochan3n = 5Sorochan took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away550%
These 10 meetings
MetricKurliukSorochanK − SBasisWins010−10in 10 meetingsFirst set19−8of 10Avg pointsper match30.639.5−8.9per matchSweeps05−53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKurliukSorochanBasisWin rate · lifetime150 / 283 vs 230 / 41853%55%150 / 283 vs 230 / 418Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.136.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SorochanKurliuk 3.40/Sorochan 1.30
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
71.4%
Sorochan · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Kurliuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 9 · 10:10V. Kurliuk48811612112I. Sorochan481131110133
LSep 9 · 07:30V. Kurliuk239590I. Sorochan331111113
LAug 12 · 10:08V. Kurliuk35117891I. Sorochan3961111113
LAug 12 · 06:30V. Kurliuk174760I. Sorochan331111113
LJul 19 · 06:30V. Kurliuk29109100I. Sorochan351211123
LJun 2 · 13:30V. Kurliuk43611511102I. Sorochan49117118123
LApr 20 · 06:30V. Kurliuk29115130I. Sorochan391311153
LApr 2 · 06:30V. Kurliuk29371271I. Sorochan43111110113
LOct 19 · 14:00V. Kurliuk351111671I. Sorochan4313811113
LOct 12 · 12:30V. Kurliuk185760I. Sorochan331111113
V. Kurliuk10
WOct 4 · 13:00V. Kurliuk1.4412116113O. Levytskyi2.631081191WSep 23 · 09:00V. Kurliuk3.40119117113M. Pohorilyi1.3091131192WSep 23 · 08:00M. Zavoloka2.63651151V. Kurliuk1.4411119113LSep 23 · 07:00V. Simchuk1.6191111113V. Kurliuk2.20119561WSep 23 · 05:30E. Bakin1.801110591V. Kurliuk1.9191211113WSep 17 · 09:59M. Zavoloka2.10391181V. Kurliuk1.6711117113LSep 17 · 09:30S. Honcharenko2.201311113V. Kurliuk1.6111480WSep 17 · 08:00V. Kurliuk1.3011117113V. Matviichuk3.40741161LSep 17 · 06:30V. Kurliuk2.10511891V. Simchuk1.6711711113WSep 17 · 05:00V. Kurliuk2.251111113M. Zavoloka1.575870
I. Sorochan10
WOct 4 · 12:30A. Lysyi3.402990I. Sorochan1.301111113LSep 28 · 15:30I. Dubinin1.6711811113I. Sorochan2.10911981LSep 28 · 14:30I. Sorochan2.1011830V. Simchuk1.671311113LSep 28 · 13:30S. Sideltsev1.33913911113I. Sorochan3.25111111732LSep 28 · 12:30I. Sorochan2.107890Y. Zvolynskyi1.671111113LSep 24 · 10:08S. Sideltsev1.441311113I. Sorochan2.6311470LSep 24 · 09:30I. Sorochan2.75128781M. Pohorilyi1.40101111113LSep 24 · 08:30I. Sorochan2.63811931S. Honcharenko1.4411511113WSep 24 · 07:00I. Sorochan3.4071111133S. Sideltsev1.301197111WSep 24 · 06:00I. Sorochan1.73131113113M. Zavoloka2.0011131161
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