TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Lukas Krupnik Snr vs Jakub Lysek 1-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
151710121191113––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:03 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJakub Lysek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingLukas Krupnik Snr above · Jakub Lysek below
Set 1 · 15-17
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-13
Point 98 set 4, 11-13 · our read held Jakub Lysek at 54.0%
98 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Krupnik Snr 1–5 Jakub Lysek Lukas Krupnik Snr has won 1 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:0354.0%Our read54.6%to break even at 1.833
short by 0.6pp54.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.833 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Lysek
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-5 in 6
Lysek
Correct
gap of 4 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Snr 1304 vs Lysek 1317
Lysek
Correct
both rated, 13 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Snr 20% vs Lysek 40%
Lysek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Snr 40% vs Lysek 60%
Lysek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Snr -2 · Lysek -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Lysek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lysek form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSnr 1.833 / Lysek 1.833
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Lysek)-0.6pp
TT Cup · #13235860
Snr1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 8 days ago (Sep 25) · back after a break
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Lysek1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Sep 30)
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeSnr1wins
AwayLysek5wins
1 of 6 to a deciderLysek leads 5–1, and 1 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSnrn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayLysek100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Snr1Lysek5n = 6Lysek took 5 of 6
S2Snr2Lysek4n = 6Lysek took 4 of 6
S3Snr3Lysek3n = 6split evenly
S4Snr2Lysek3n = 5Lysek took 3 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away350%
0–3Straight, away117%
These 6 meetings
MetricSnrLysekS − LBasisWins15−4in 6 meetingsFirst set15−4of 6Avg pointsper match39.543.8−4.3per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSnrLysekBasisWin rate · lifetime66 / 146 vs 152 / 33645.2%45.2%66 / 146 vs 152 / 336Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.739.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
LysekSnr 1.83/Lysek 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Lysek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Lysek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LOct 3 · 06:10L. Snr47151011111J. Lysek5117129133
WJul 22 · 08:15L. Snr4413811123J. Lysek3911117101
LJul 18 · 07:15L. Snr54151191182J. Lysek52177116113
LJun 23 · 09:45L. Snr397912111J. Lysek45111110133
LJun 14 · 07:40L. Snr355111181J. Lysek4311813113
LJun 12 · 06:15L. Snr186750J. Lysek331111113
L. Snr10
LOct 3 · 07:40F. Mandrysz1.8041L. Snr1.9100WOct 3 · 07:10L. Stempak1.53761161L. Snr2.3811119113LSep 25 · 12:38L. Snr2.5041170J. Jnr1.501113113LSep 25 · 12:10L. Snr1.28311241Z. Chovancik3.5011811113WSep 25 · 10:40J. Jnr1.36811101142L. Snr3.00117128113LSep 25 · 10:10P. Sturma1.731111113L. Snr2.007480LSep 22 · 08:43L. Snr1.8381090J. Sevecek1.831112113LSep 22 · 08:10J. Matus1.3311911113L. Snr3.25411481WSep 22 · 07:10L. Snr2.2091111113J. Sevecek1.61115961WSep 22 · 05:40A. Strelec1.5311691182L. Snr2.38711113113
J. Lysek10
LOct 3 · 06:40F. Mandrysz1.7311711113J. Lysek2.00711781LSep 30 · 16:38M. Sobota1.6191111123J. Lysek2.201138101WSep 30 · 16:10L. Zustina1.449111161J. Lysek2.6311131113LSep 30 · 15:10J. Lysek1.8310121151M. Sobota1.8312148113LSep 30 · 13:40F. Mandrysz1.731111128113J. Lysek2.0099141142WSep 27 · 20:39J. Lysek1.7313911113J. Oleksik2.001111891WSep 27 · 20:10M. Dolezal1.4071011101J. Lysek2.7511128123WSep 27 · 19:10J. Lysek2.00121011113J. Oleksik1.731012481LSep 27 · 17:40L. Krupnik Jr1.731111113J. Lysek2.005880WSep 25 · 17:10L. Krupnik Jr1.6189100J. Lysek2.201111123
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