TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Adam Kanak vs Jakub Volny 3-2 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1113115121010121210
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:08 and never touched: 60.1% is still 60.1%
Graded at full timeAdam Kanak to win
60.1%
60.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingAdam Kanak above · Jakub Volny below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 10-12
Set 5 · 12-10
Point 106 set 5, 12-10 · our read held Adam Kanak at 60.1%
106 points played in total.
H2H Adam Kanak 4–3 Jakub Volny Jakub Volny has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:0860.1%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 3.6pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Kanak
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-3 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kanak 1555 vs Volny 1496
Kanak
Correct
both rated, 59 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kanak 60% vs Volny 40%
Kanak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kanak 60% vs Volny 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kanak +2 · Volny -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% · Slight lean (leans Kanak) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKanak 1.571 / Volny 2.25
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Kanak)-3.6pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13235557
Kanak1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 01)
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite56% won 40 of 72
Up 2–0, closes it88% 14 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it76% 25 of 33
Volny2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 5 days ago (Sep 28)
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog41% won 41 of 99
Down 0–1, comes back24% 13 of 54
Down 0–2, comes back12% 3 of 25
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeKanak4wins
AwayVolny3wins
1 of 7 to a deciderKanak leads 4–3, and 1 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKanak100%3 of 3
AwayVolny75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kanak3Volny4n = 7Volny took 4 of 7
S2Kanak3Volny4n = 7Volny took 4 of 7
S3Kanak4Volny3n = 7Kanak took 4 of 7
S4Kanak2Volny2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home114%
3–1Four sets, home229%
3–2Decider, home114%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away114%
0–3Straight, away229%
These 7 meetings
MetricKanakVolnyK − VBasisWins43+1in 7 meetingsFirst set34−1of 7Avg pointsper match38.436.0+2.4per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKanakVolnyBasisWin rate · lifetime84 / 154 vs 177 / 37054.6%47.8%84 / 154 vs 177 / 370Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.939.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KanakKanak 1.57/Volny 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.1%
Kanak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kanak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WSep 5 · 14:15A. Kanak4714715113J. Volny4412111381
LSep 4 · 15:40A. Kanak236980J. Volny331111113
LAug 28 · 12:35A. Kanak451711981J. Volny4519411113
WAug 28 · 10:10A. Kanak51811137123J. Volny471141111102
WAug 4 · 10:40A. Kanak43111011113J. Volny30412591
LJul 17 · 13:25A. Kanak268990J. Volny331111113
WJul 17 · 09:45A. Kanak341211113J. Volny2010640
A. Kanak10
LOct 3 · 11:40R. Sedlacek1.67116611143A. Kanak2.10811115122WOct 3 · 11:10M. Raska2.38113111192A. Kanak1.53911713113WOct 1 · 17:30L. Dzida1.7391080A. Kanak2.001112113WOct 1 · 15:45A. Kanak2.001111911113M. Moravec1.7313711792LOct 1 · 14:45A. Kanak2.0061340L. Dzida1.731115113WOct 1 · 13:45A. Kanak1.53101113113V. Konvicka2.381271191LSep 28 · 17:10A. Kanak2.0061260R. Benes1.731114113WSep 28 · 16:10A. Kanak1.671112173D. Pawlik2.10810150WSep 28 · 14:40K. Kleprlik1.44811381A. Kanak2.6311111113LSep 28 · 14:10R. Benes1.737111111113A. Kanak2.0011171362
J. Volny10
LOct 3 · 10:40R. Sedlacek1.57811511123J. Volny2.25119117102LSep 28 · 13:10J. Volny2.2568121172P. Vinansky1.571111108113LSep 28 · 12:15J. Volny1.808750L. Lasota1.911111113WSep 28 · 10:45P. Vinansky1.36661191J. Volny3.0011116113WSep 28 · 10:15D. Vitasek1.91711691J. Volny1.8011311113LSep 27 · 17:09J. Volny2.2511771192L. Dzida1.57611119113WSep 27 · 16:15J. Volny2.201113113A. Cizek1.6181140WSep 27 · 14:45T. Molin1.53126119122J. Volny2.381011411143WSep 27 · 14:15L. Dzida1.4011912782J. Volny2.759111011113LSep 26 · 12:46T. Lysek1.3313811133J. Volny3.2511119111
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