TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Tomas Hybl vs Matej Svitac 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
118711411811––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:29 and never touched: 61.7% is still 61.7%
Graded at full timeMatej Svitac to win
61.7%
61.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Hybl above · Matej Svitac below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 71 set 4, 8-11 · our read held Matej Svitac at 61.7%
71 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Hybl 0–3 Matej Svitac Tomas Hybl has won 0 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:2961.7%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 2.0pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Svitac
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
0-3 in 3
Svitac
Correct
gap of 3 in 3, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hybl 1520 vs Svitac 1596
Svitac
Correct
both rated, 76 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hybl 20% vs Svitac 60%
Svitac
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hybl 20% vs Svitac 50%
Svitac
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Hybl -3 · Svitac +1
Hybl
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% · Slight lean (leans Svitac) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hybl form (20%) is below what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHybl 2.25 / Svitac 1.571
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Svitac)-2.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13234856
Hybl2.25
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog48% won 12 of 25
Down 0–1, comes back23% 3 of 13
Down 0–2, comes back17% 1 of 6
Svitac1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite56% won 69 of 123
Up 2–0, closes it92% 34 of 37
Up 1–0, closes it75% 51 of 68
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeHybl0wins
AwaySvitac3wins
1 of 3 to a deciderSvitac leads 3–0, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hybl2Svitac1n = 3Hybl took 2 of 3
S2Hybl0Svitac3n = 3Svitac took 3 of 3
S3Hybl0Svitac3n = 3Svitac took 3 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away133%
These 3 meetings
MetricHyblSvitacH − SBasisWins03−3in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match34.741.7−7.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHyblSvitacBasisWin rate · lifetime86 / 175 vs 219 / 39949.1%54.9%86 / 175 vs 219 / 399Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.038.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SvitacHybl 2.25/Svitac 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.7%
Svitac · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Svitac won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LSep 23 · 11:15T. Hybl5211101011102M. Svitac50712127123
LMay 19 · 12:28T. Hybl184680M. Svitac331111113
LMay 19 · 11:30T. Hybl34119771M. Svitac4291111113
T. Hybl10
WOct 3 · 11:30T. Hybl1.671311113R. Merkl2.1011670LOct 3 · 09:30T. Hybl1.501151531V. Herrmann2.5071117113LSep 28 · 12:28J. Juppa1.83411119123T. Hybl1.83116611102LSep 28 · 11:30T. Hybl2.20911911L. Provaznik1.6111911113WSep 28 · 10:30T. Hybl2.2511611113M. Hajek1.57611371LSep 28 · 09:30T. Hybl1.57641191J. Juppa2.2511118113WSep 23 · 12:18L. Smazik1.807290T. Hybl1.911111113LSep 23 · 11:15T. Hybl2.2011101011102M. Svitac1.61712127123LSep 23 · 10:15T. Hybl1.83391571L. Smazik1.83111113113LSep 23 · 09:15T. Hybl1.671271591V. Lopata2.10101117113
M. Svitac10
WOct 3 · 10:00R. Merkl2.2021111452M. Svitac1.61117611113WOct 2 · 12:49M. Svitac2.25111211113M. Hajek1.57614651LOct 2 · 11:45M. Hajek1.611111133M. Svitac2.2089110WOct 2 · 10:45L. Smazik1.9111811462M. Svitac1.80811611113WOct 2 · 09:15V. Lopata2.20541181M. Svitac1.6111119113LOct 1 · 12:14R. Merkl2.10141313123M. Svitac1.67161111101LOct 1 · 11:15J. Simek2.201211113M. Svitac1.6110380LOct 1 · 10:45M. Svitac1.67781251L. Kolman2.10111110113LOct 1 · 09:45M. Svitac1.53311111172R. Merkl2.38117313113WSep 23 · 11:15T. Hybl2.2011101011102M. Svitac1.61712127123
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