TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Jakub Simek vs Matej Svitac 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1210113118––––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:05 and never touched: 56.3% is still 56.3%
Graded at full timeMatej Svitac to win
56.3%
56.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJakub Simek above · Matej Svitac below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 55 set 3, 11-8 · our read held Matej Svitac at 56.3%
55 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Simek 4–5 Matej Svitac Jakub Simek has won 4 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:0556.3%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 5.6pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Svitac
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-5 in 9
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Simek 1554 vs Svitac 1606
Svitac
Wrong
both rated, 53 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Simek 40% vs Svitac 60%
Svitac
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Simek 50% vs Svitac 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Simek -1 · Svitac -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Svitac) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSimek 2.20 / Svitac 1.615
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Svitac)-5.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13224054
Simek2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog41% won 9 of 22
Down 0–1, comes back36% 5 of 14
Down 0–2, comes back13% 1 of 8
Svitac1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite56% won 67 of 120
Up 2–0, closes it92% 33 of 36
Up 1–0, closes it76% 50 of 66
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeSimek4wins
AwaySvitac5wins
4 of 9 to a deciderSvitac leads 5–4, and 4 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSimek100%3 of 3
AwaySvitac83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Simek3Svitac6n = 9Svitac took 6 of 9
S2Simek3Svitac6n = 9Svitac took 6 of 9
S3Simek5Svitac4n = 9Simek took 5 of 9
S4Simek3Svitac4n = 7Svitac took 4 of 7
S5Simek3Svitac1n = 4Simek took 3 of 4
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home111%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home333%
2–3Decider, away111%
1–3Four sets, away333%
0–3Straight, away111%
These 9 meetings
MetricSimekSvitacSimek − SvitacBasisWins45−1in 9 meetingsFirst set36−3of 9Avg pointsper match38.337.4+0.9per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSimekSvitacBasisWin rate · lifetime86 / 171 vs 216 / 39350.3%55%86 / 171 vs 216 / 393Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.539.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SvitacSimek 2.20/Svitac 1.61
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.3%
Svitac · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Simek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LSep 18 · 10:45J. Simek31761171M. Svitac3811115113
LAug 13 · 10:15J. Simek33611791M. Svitac3411111113
WAug 5 · 10:00J. Simek521111117123M. Svitac45513611102
LJul 24 · 09:45J. Simek36691381M. Svitac44111111113
WOct 10 · 12:40J. Simek341211113M. Svitac1610510
LOct 10 · 11:30J. Simek196580M. Svitac331111113
LSep 22 · 11:45J. Simek4889111192M. Svitac44111165113
WJun 17 · 09:45J. Simek46611711113M. Svitac3911811272
WFeb 21 · 10:45J. Simek46134711113M. Svitac44111111652
J. Simek10
LOct 1 · 10:15J. Simek1.44611118142R. Merkl2.63119911163WOct 1 · 09:15J. Simek1.9111101213113L. Kolman1.80612101552WSep 30 · 13:08L. Smazik1.67111111101J. Simek2.1013138123LSep 30 · 11:30J. Simek1.73914121182P. Provaznik2.001112149113LSep 30 · 10:30J. Simek2.001161011112L. Smazik1.73711129133WSep 30 · 09:30J. Simek1.801111113T. Hrstka1.917670LSep 26 · 16:26D. Brichacek1.83111193J. Simek1.838380LSep 26 · 15:15J. Simek2.2599111192D. Brichacek1.57111187103WSep 26 · 14:15J. Simek1.911212910103L. Kolman1.801010111292WSep 26 · 13:15J. Simek1.50111183R. Merkl2.509950
M. Svitac10
LOct 1 · 10:45M. Svitac1.67781251L. Kolman2.10111110113LOct 1 · 09:45M. Svitac1.53311111172R. Merkl2.38117313113WSep 25 · 13:08M. Svitac1.5711118113R. Merkl2.25851141WSep 25 · 12:00R. Merkl2.251151011102M. Svitac1.57711124123WSep 25 · 11:00L. Smazik1.83591171M. Svitac1.8311119113LSep 25 · 09:30Z. Kuksa3.25811115113M. Svitac1.3311791182LSep 23 · 12:48V. Lopata2.2011115113M. Svitac1.61941181WSep 23 · 11:15T. Hybl2.2011101011102M. Svitac1.61712127123WSep 23 · 10:45M. Svitac1.6111149113V. Lopata2.208121161WSep 23 · 09:45M. Svitac1.91131112113L. Smazik1.801551051
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