TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Martin Holub vs Pavel Moulis 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
7111311711711––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:01 and never touched: 54.9% is still 54.9%
Graded at full timePavel Moulis to win
54.9%
54.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
RightSent to Pro: Pavel Moulis @ 1.61 · Won
How it is goingMartin Holub above · Pavel Moulis below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 78 set 4, 7-11 · our read held Pavel Moulis at 54.9%
78 points played in total.
H2H Martin Holub 1–3 Pavel Moulis Martin Holub has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 06:0154.9%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 7.0pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Moulis
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-3 in 4
Moulis
Correct
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Holub 1344 vs Moulis 1321
Holub
Wrong
both rated, 22 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Holub 60% vs Moulis 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Holub 40% vs Moulis 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Holub -1 · Moulis -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 55% · Coin-flip (leans Moulis) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Moulis form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHolub 2.20 / Moulis 1.615
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Moulis)-7.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13234690
Holub2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog50% won 55 of 111
Down 0–1, comes back29% 14 of 48
Down 0–2, comes back9% 2 of 22
Moulis1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite54% won 32 of 59
Up 2–0, closes it100% 21 of 21
Up 1–0, closes it76% 28 of 37
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeHolub1wins
AwayMoulis3wins
3 of 4 to a deciderMoulis leads 3–1, and 3 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHolubn = 0, below the 3 needed
AwayMoulis75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Holub0Moulis4n = 4Moulis took 4 of 4
S2Holub1Moulis3n = 4Moulis took 3 of 4
S3Holub3Moulis1n = 4Holub took 3 of 4
S4Holub2Moulis1n = 3Holub took 2 of 3
S5Holub1Moulis2n = 3Moulis took 2 of 3
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away250%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away125%
These 4 meetings
MetricHolubMoulisH − MBasisWins13−2in 4 meetingsFirst set04−4of 4Avg pointsper match38.845.2−6.4per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHolubMoulisBasisWin rate · lifetime349 / 640 vs 191 / 43754.5%43.7%349 / 640 vs 191 / 437Avg sets wonper match2.21.9per matchAvg pointsper match40.138.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MoulisHolub 2.20/Moulis 1.61
Hit
What we said
54.9%
Moulis · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Pavel Moulis @ 1.61 · Won
What happened
1–3
Moulis won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LSep 23 · 08:00M. Holub48881111102P. Moulis50111188123
WSep 2 · 12:00M. Holub514111311123P. Moulis521171113102
LAug 28 · 12:59M. Holub175480P. Moulis331111113
LAug 28 · 11:00M. Holub3958111142P. Moulis46111176113
M. Holub10
WOct 3 · 19:30M. Holub1.83711114113D. Sabuka1.8311981172LOct 3 · 17:30M. Holub1.73137981J. Jnr2.00111111113WSep 28 · 21:08M. Holub2.00111110113L. Krutina1.73761251WSep 28 · 20:00M. Cmil1.91127116122M. Holub1.801011611143WSep 28 · 19:00T. Stejskal1.5751141172M. Holub2.25115117113LSep 28 · 17:30L. Krutina1.73111287173M. Holub2.008101111152LSep 27 · 12:59J. Jnr2.10911112113M. Holub1.6711781152WSep 27 · 12:00M. Holub1.7361111113J. Jnr2.00119841LSep 27 · 10:30M. Snizek1.731111113M. Holub2.007990LSep 27 · 10:00P. Fiser1.507121111113M. Holub2.5011149472
P. Moulis10
LOct 3 · 18:00D. Sabuka2.381115143P. Moulis1.53513120WOct 1 · 09:13P. Moulis1.91111110113L. Krutina1.80941261LOct 1 · 08:00P. Moulis2.50791111102M. Obraz1.50111188123WOct 1 · 06:30P. Cizek1.618970P. Moulis2.201111113WOct 1 · 06:00L. Krutina1.617612101P. Moulis2.20111110123WSep 24 · 08:34P. Moulis2.5031211113V. Kral1.501110471LSep 24 · 08:00J. Puk1.6111811113P. Moulis2.20911861LSep 24 · 07:00V. Kral1.7311116113P. Moulis2.00671191LSep 24 · 05:30M. Snizek1.5011511113P. Moulis2.50211161WSep 23 · 09:09P. Moulis2.63111110113L. Krutina1.44841231
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