TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Radovan Pisa vs Lukas Rulc 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 6
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
115711117119––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:08 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRadovan Pisa to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingRadovan Pisa above · Lukas Rulc below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 72 set 4, 11-9 · our read held Radovan Pisa at 54.0%
72 points played in total.
H2H Radovan Pisa 40–31 Lukas Rulc Lukas Rulc has won 31 of their 71 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:0854.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Pisa
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
40-31 in 71
Pisa
Correct
gap of 9 in 71, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pisa 1728 vs Rulc 1661
Pisa
Correct
both rated, 67 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pisa 100% vs Rulc 60%
Pisa
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pisa 70% vs Rulc 40%
Pisa
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pisa +6 · Rulc +1
Pisa
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Pisa) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pisa form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPisa 1.80 / Rulc 1.909
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Pisa)-1.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13234629
Pisa1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 1 day ago (Oct 02)
Won last 6
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite52% won 83 of 161
Up 2–0, closes it88% 38 of 43
Up 1–0, closes it66% 59 of 89
Rulc1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 01)
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog43% won 52 of 120
Down 0–1, comes back16% 9 of 56
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 24
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePisa4wins
AwayRulc6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderRulc leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePisan = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayRulc75%6 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pisa2Rulc8n = 10Rulc took 8 of 10
S2Pisa4Rulc6n = 10Rulc took 6 of 10
S3Pisa6Rulc4n = 10Pisa took 6 of 10
S4Pisa5Rulc0n = 5Pisa took 5 of 5
S5Pisa1Rulc3n = 4Rulc took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricPisaRulcP − RBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match34.637.1−2.5per matchSweeps23−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPisaRulcBasisWin rate · lifetime384 / 791 vs 346 / 69148.6%50.1%384 / 791 vs 346 / 691Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.639.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PisaPisa 1.80/Rulc 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Pisa · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Pisa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 25 · 09:45R. Pisa4485111192L. Rulc49111179113
LSep 15 · 09:04R. Pisa2376100L. Rulc341111123
WSep 15 · 06:00R. Pisa361111143L. Rulc2989120
LAug 11 · 08:18R. Pisa51810111392L. Rulc521112711113
WAug 11 · 06:45R. Pisa3731211113L. Rulc291110351
LJun 29 · 12:48R. Pisa175480L. Rulc331111113
LJun 29 · 10:45R. Pisa4161151182L. Rulc47117117113
WJun 25 · 09:30R. Pisa47491211113L. Rulc45111110582
WJun 17 · 06:15R. Pisa341112113L. Rulc2021080
LJun 13 · 19:45R. Pisa165560L. Rulc331111113
R. Pisa10
LOct 3 · 11:15R. Pisa2.259101171L. Dobias1.5711127113WOct 3 · 10:15R. Pisa2.00111169113V. Burylov1.7374111192WOct 2 · 08:53R. Pisa2.10411711113L. Adam1.6711811572WOct 2 · 07:45M. Vyskocil1.801111101122R. Pisa1.91671211143WOct 2 · 06:45O. Kaderabek2.0011119972R. Pisa1.73991111113WOct 2 · 05:15L. Adam1.6751191242R. Pisa2.101191110113WSep 30 · 20:19R. Pisa2.5011119113L. Dobias1.50881191WSep 30 · 19:45R. Pisa2.101111106113V. Burylov1.6797121192LSep 30 · 18:15V. Grubr2.10811119113R. Pisa1.6711881132LSep 30 · 17:45L. Dobias1.531111113R. Pisa2.389760
L. Rulc10
LOct 3 · 11:45V. Burylov1.8081111113L. Rulc1.91117991WOct 3 · 10:45L. Dobias1.671211118132L. Rulc2.10149711153WOct 1 · 16:43M. Vyskocil1.671511581L. Rulc2.1017811113LOct 1 · 15:45L. Rulc1.57811871M. Vyskocil2.2511911113WOct 1 · 14:15O. Mezera2.75121550L. Rulc1.401417113WOct 1 · 13:45J. Krames Sr1.6111711982L. Rulc2.20611711113LSep 30 · 16:44L. Rulc1.80831141S. Rejent1.9111118113WSep 30 · 15:45S. Rejent2.206111111102L. Rulc1.61119135123LSep 30 · 14:45L. Heinzl1.611211123L. Rulc2.20107100LSep 30 · 13:15M. Myler2.2011813113L. Rulc1.619111191
Upcoming Matches
R. Pisa
Nothing scheduled
L. Rulc
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