TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Mateusz Burkacki vs Mateusz Galus 1-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
3119111191012––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:59 and never touched: 62.8% is still 62.8%
Graded at full timeMateusz Galus to win
62.8%
62.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
76 points played in total.
Set by set
3119111191012––
H2H Mateusz Burkacki 4–12 Mateusz Galus Mateusz Burkacki has won 4 of their 16 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:5962.8%Our read64.9%to break even at 1.54
short by 2.1pp64.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.54 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.54 (60%)
Galus
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-12 in 16
Galus
Correct
gap of 8 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Burkacki 1554 vs Galus 1605
Galus
Correct
both rated, 51 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Burkacki 60% vs Galus 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Burkacki 50% vs Galus 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Burkacki +3 · Galus -1
Burkacki
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% · Clear lean (leans Galus) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Burkacki form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (43%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBurkacki 2.35 / Galus 1.54
Signal prob.37% / 63%
Edge (Galus)-2.1pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13231926
Burkacki2.35
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog39% won 61 of 156
Down 0–1, comes back23% 23 of 100
Down 0–2, comes back5% 3 of 60
Galus1.54
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite56% won 135 of 241
Up 2–0, closes it99% 72 of 73
Up 1–0, closes it78% 101 of 129
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBurkacki3wins
AwayGalus7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderGalus leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBurkackin = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayGalus75%6 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Burkacki2Galus8n = 10Galus took 8 of 10
S2Burkacki4Galus6n = 10Galus took 6 of 10
S3Burkacki3Galus7n = 10Galus took 7 of 10
S4Burkacki5Galus2n = 7Burkacki took 5 of 7
S5Burkacki1Galus2n = 3Galus took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricBurkackiGalusB − GBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match36.639.3−2.7per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBurkackiGalusBasisWin rate · lifetime100 / 245 vs 359 / 67840.8%53%100 / 245 vs 359 / 678Avg sets wonper match1.82.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.938.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
GalusBurkacki 2.35/Galus 1.54
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.8%
Galus · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Galus won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 1 · 09:30M. Burkacki34156491M. Galus46131111113
LJul 3 · 13:30M. Burkacki4691181172M. Galus47119115113
LJul 3 · 11:00M. Burkacki4578111182M. Galus48111196113
LJul 2 · 07:00M. Burkacki184770M. Galus331111113
WJul 1 · 07:00M. Burkacki4481411113M. Galus361112761
LJun 24 · 06:00M. Burkacki31910120M. Galus371112143
WJun 23 · 08:30M. Burkacki49613811113M. Galus45111111392
WJun 9 · 06:00M. Burkacki4111811113M. Galus31611951
LJun 8 · 06:30M. Burkacki4091110101M. Galus3711212123
LJun 7 · 21:35M. Burkacki187470M. Galus331111113
M. Burkacki10
WOct 2 · 06:30M. Burkacki2.751111123M. Lysakowski1.4099100WOct 2 · 05:00M. Burkacki1.33135911113J. Chojnacki3.00111111472WOct 1 · 12:30S. Radlo—9711121M. Burkacki—11117143LOct 1 · 11:30M. Burkacki2.25881171S. Radlo1.5711118113LOct 1 · 09:30M. Galus1.55131111113M. Burkacki2.30156491LOct 1 · 08:30M. Burkacki2.159570D. Stapor1.621111113LOct 1 · 07:30P. Gola1.63111110113M. Burkacki2.15751271WOct 1 · 07:00M. Burkacki1.47111159113J. Masternak2.5079111162LSep 16 · 13:40M. Burkacki2.87781281M. Ovcharenko1.37111110113WSep 16 · 12:00D. Stapor1.546811121M. Burkacki2.2511114143
M. Galus10
LOct 2 · 07:00P. Gola1.8511148113M. Galus1.868121171WOct 2 · 06:00M. Galus2.151114512153J. Chojnacki1.637121114132WOct 1 · 13:00M. Galus1.14129119113J. Masternak4.89101181162LOct 1 · 11:00M. Galus1.604460P. Gola2.201111113WOct 1 · 09:30M. Galus1.55131111113M. Burkacki2.30156491LOct 1 · 08:00M. Galus1.401197101J. Masternak2.7581111123WOct 1 · 06:30M. Galus1.651111113D. Stapor2.103880WOct 1 · 05:00M. Galus1.621111113S. Radlo2.157780LSep 30 · 13:30S. Radlo2.20111011113M. Galus1.60812861WSep 30 · 11:30M. Galus1.3891311113J. Masternak2.801111461
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