TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Mateusz Burkacki vs Szymon Radlo 1-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
811811118711––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:29 and never touched: 57.6% is still 57.6%
Graded at full timeSzymon Radlo to win
57.6%
57.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
75 points played in total.
Set by set
811811118711––
H2H Mateusz Burkacki 19–21 Szymon Radlo Mateusz Burkacki has won 19 of their 40 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:2957.6%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.57
short by 6.1pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.57 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Radlo
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
19-21 in 40
Radlo
Correct
gap of 2 in 40, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Burkacki 1524 vs Radlo 1540
Radlo
Correct
both rated, 15 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Burkacki 20% vs Radlo 40%
Radlo
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Burkacki 50% vs Radlo 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Burkacki -3 · Radlo -1
Burkacki
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% · Slight lean (leans Radlo) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Radlo form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBurkacki 2.25 / Radlo 1.57
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Radlo)-6.1pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13227299
Burkacki2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog40% won 61 of 152
Down 0–1, comes back24% 23 of 97
Down 0–2, comes back5% 3 of 57
Radlo1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite53% won 104 of 198
Up 2–0, closes it95% 55 of 58
Up 1–0, closes it76% 88 of 116
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBurkacki5wins
AwayRadlo5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBurkacki100%4 of 4
AwayRadlo83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Burkacki4Radlo6n = 10Radlo took 6 of 10
S2Burkacki5Radlo5n = 10split evenly
S3Burkacki4Radlo6n = 10Radlo took 6 of 10
S4Burkacki4Radlo1n = 5Burkacki took 4 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricBurkackiRadloB − RBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match37.938.7−0.8per matchSweeps23−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBurkackiRadloBasisWin rate · lifetime97 / 241 vs 397 / 80440.3%49.4%97 / 241 vs 397 / 804Avg sets wonper match1.81.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.938.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
RadloBurkacki 2.25/Radlo 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.6%
Radlo · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Radlo won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 16 · 10:30M. Burkacki4011126113S. Radlo358101161
WSep 15 · 08:30M. Burkacki4511611173S. Radlo428118151
LSep 8 · 08:30M. Burkacki2897120S. Radlo361111143
WSep 7 · 12:40M. Burkacki391711113S. Radlo2815490
LSep 7 · 05:00M. Burkacki237970S. Radlo331111113
WSep 4 · 09:30M. Burkacki331111113S. Radlo279990
LSep 3 · 06:30M. Burkacki54915911102S. Radlo541113117123
LJul 8 · 05:30M. Burkacki378101181S. Radlo4211128113
WJul 7 · 08:00M. Burkacki561011711173S. Radlo55128119152
LJul 6 · 09:00M. Burkacki2485110S. Radlo351111133
M. Burkacki10
LOct 1 · 09:30M. Galus1.55131111113M. Burkacki2.30156491LOct 1 · 08:30M. Burkacki2.159570D. Stapor1.621111113LOct 1 · 07:30P. Gola1.63111110113M. Burkacki2.15751271WOct 1 · 07:00M. Burkacki1.47111159113J. Masternak2.5079111162LSep 16 · 13:40M. Burkacki2.87781281M. Ovcharenko1.37111110113WSep 16 · 12:00D. Stapor1.546811121M. Burkacki2.2511114143WSep 16 · 10:30M. Burkacki2.3511126113S. Radlo1.538101161WSep 16 · 08:30P. Gola1.5711911912M. Burkacki2.20611511113WSep 16 · 06:30B. Molka1.463990M. Burkacki2.481111113LSep 16 · 05:30M. Ovcharenko1.291111113M. Burkacki3.309950
S. Radlo10
LOct 1 · 10:30D. Stapor1.801112159113S. Radlo1.90710171182WOct 1 · 09:00P. Gola1.6078111262S. Radlo2.201111910113LOct 1 · 06:00J. Masternak2.20131114123S. Radlo1.5815912101LOct 1 · 05:00M. Galus1.621111113S. Radlo2.157780WSep 30 · 13:30S. Radlo2.20111011113M. Galus1.60812861LSep 30 · 12:00S. Radlo2.52711661J. Chojnacki1.4711611113WSep 30 · 10:00S. Wloszek2.059980S. Radlo1.661111113WSep 30 · 08:00B. Molka1.651071171S. Radlo2.1012116113WSep 30 · 07:00M. Galus1.626119101S. Radlo2.0211811123LSep 16 · 10:30M. Burkacki2.3511126113S. Radlo1.538101161
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