TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Mateusz Burkacki vs Dawid Stapor 0-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
911511711––––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:28 and never touched: 60.0% is still 60.0%
Graded at full timeDawid Stapor to win
60.0%
60.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
54 points played in total.
Set by set
911511711––––
H2H Mateusz Burkacki 7–11 Dawid Stapor Mateusz Burkacki has won 7 of their 18 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:2860.0%Our read61.7%to break even at 1.62
short by 1.7pp61.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.62 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.62 (57%)
Stapor
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
7-11 in 18
Stapor
Correct
gap of 4 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Burkacki 1543 vs Stapor 1667
Stapor
Correct
both rated, 123 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Burkacki 60% vs Stapor 40%
Burkacki
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Burkacki 50% vs Stapor 70%
Stapor
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Burkacki -1 · Stapor -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% · Slight lean (leans Stapor) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stapor form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBurkacki 2.15 / Stapor 1.62
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Stapor)-1.7pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13226481
Burkacki2.15
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog40% won 61 of 152
Down 0–1, comes back24% 23 of 97
Down 0–2, comes back5% 3 of 57
Stapor1.62
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite59% won 157 of 267
Up 2–0, closes it99% 76 of 77
Up 1–0, closes it86% 118 of 137
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBurkacki4wins
AwayStapor6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderStapor leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBurkacki75%3 of 4
AwayStapor83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Burkacki4Stapor6n = 10Stapor took 6 of 10
S2Burkacki4Stapor6n = 10Stapor took 6 of 10
S3Burkacki3Stapor7n = 10Stapor took 7 of 10
S4Burkacki5Stapor3n = 8Burkacki took 5 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricBurkackiStaporB − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match36.440.1−3.7per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBurkackiStaporBasisWin rate · lifetime97 / 239 vs 493 / 92340.6%53.4%97 / 239 vs 493 / 923Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.937.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
StaporBurkacki 2.15/Stapor 1.62
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60%
Stapor · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Stapor won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 16 · 12:00M. Burkacki4011114143D. Stapor376811121
LSep 15 · 12:40M. Burkacki34812771D. Stapor43111011113
LSep 15 · 06:30M. Burkacki258980D. Stapor331111113
WSep 9 · 06:00M. Burkacki4111118113D. Stapor35961191
LSep 8 · 13:10M. Burkacki4266111182D. Stapor45111157113
LSep 8 · 09:30M. Burkacki208660D. Stapor331111113
WSep 2 · 07:30M. Burkacki3951112113D. Stapor351161081
LJul 8 · 12:30M. Burkacki31125861D. Stapor43101111113
WJul 8 · 09:00M. Burkacki571112912133D. Stapor526141110112
LJun 29 · 09:00M. Burkacki355712111D. Stapor45111110133
M. Burkacki10
LOct 1 · 07:30P. Gola1.63111110113M. Burkacki2.15751271WOct 1 · 07:00M. Burkacki1.47111159113J. Masternak2.5079111162LSep 16 · 13:40M. Burkacki2.87781281M. Ovcharenko1.37111110113WSep 16 · 12:00D. Stapor1.546811121M. Burkacki2.2511114143WSep 16 · 10:30M. Burkacki2.3511126113S. Radlo1.538101161WSep 16 · 08:30P. Gola1.5711911912M. Burkacki2.20611511113WSep 16 · 06:30B. Molka1.463990M. Burkacki2.481111113LSep 16 · 05:30M. Ovcharenko1.291111113M. Burkacki3.309950LSep 15 · 12:40D. Stapor1.61111011113M. Burkacki2.15812771LSep 15 · 12:00M. Ovcharenko1.3411116113M. Burkacki3.00231191
D. Stapor10
LOct 1 · 06:30M. Galus1.651111113D. Stapor2.103880WOct 1 · 05:30P. Gola2.15119771D. Stapor1.6161111113WSep 29 · 13:00D. Stapor1.911315115113S. Radlo1.80151351192LSep 29 · 11:30D. Stapor1.58115351P. Gola2.2591111113LSep 29 · 09:30S. Radlo2.23161211113D. Stapor1.591810791WSep 29 · 08:30D. Stapor1.60113911113S. Wloszek2.10111111992WSep 29 · 07:30J. Chojnacki3.7034131172D. Stapor1.251111115113WSep 29 · 06:00D. Stapor1.92134814113M. Lysakowski1.791111111222LSep 16 · 12:00D. Stapor1.546811121M. Burkacki2.2511114143WSep 15 · 12:40D. Stapor1.61111011113M. Burkacki2.15812771
Upcoming Matches
M. Burkacki
D. Stapor
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