TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Pawel Gola vs Mateusz Burkacki 3-1 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1171151012117––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:28 and never touched: 57.6% is still 57.6%
Graded at full timePawel Gola to win
57.6%
57.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
74 points played in total.
Set by set
1171151012117––
H2H Pawel Gola 12–11 Mateusz Burkacki Mateusz Burkacki has won 11 of their 23 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:2857.6%Our read61.3%to break even at 1.63
short by 3.7pp61.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.63 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.63 (57%)
Gola
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
12-11 in 23
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Gola 1606 vs Burkacki 1534
Gola
Correct
both rated, 72 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Gola 60% vs Burkacki 80%
Burkacki
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Gola 50% vs Burkacki 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Gola -2 · Burkacki +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% · Slight lean (leans Gola) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Burkacki form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (47%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGola 1.63 / Burkacki 2.15
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Gola)-3.7pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13226054
Gola1.63
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite62% won 152 of 246
Up 2–0, closes it98% 80 of 82
Up 1–0, closes it86% 112 of 131
Burkacki2.15
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog40% won 61 of 152
Down 0–1, comes back24% 23 of 97
Down 0–2, comes back5% 3 of 57
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGola5wins
AwayBurkacki5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGola57.1%4 of 7
AwayBurkacki66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Gola7Burkacki3n = 10Gola took 7 of 10
S2Gola6Burkacki4n = 10Gola took 6 of 10
S3Gola3Burkacki7n = 10Burkacki took 7 of 10
S4Gola4Burkacki3n = 7Gola took 4 of 7
S5Gola1Burkacki3n = 4Burkacki took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricGolaBurkackiG − BBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match38.237.0+1.2per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGolaBurkackiBasisWin rate · lifetime583 / 1193 vs 97 / 24048.9%40.4%583 / 1193 vs 97 / 240Avg sets wonper match1.91.8per matchAvg pointsper match37.436.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
GolaGola 1.63/Burkacki 2.15
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.6%
Gola · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Gola won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 1 · 07:30P. Gola43111110113M. Burkacki31751271
LSep 16 · 08:30P. Gola4111911912M. Burkacki44611511113
LSep 14 · 07:00P. Gola3611115362M. Burkacki43551111113
WSep 9 · 09:30P. Gola521012118113M. Burkacki47121091152
WSep 4 · 13:00P. Gola331111113M. Burkacki164930
LSep 4 · 08:30P. Gola56178611142M. Burkacki611511118163
WSep 2 · 06:00P. Gola44111111113M. Burkacki28461351
WJul 8 · 11:00P. Gola4011117113M. Burkacki34781181
LJul 5 · 21:35P. Gola218670M. Burkacki331111113
LJul 3 · 09:00P. Gola164570M. Burkacki331111113
P. Gola10
LOct 1 · 05:30P. Gola2.15119771D. Stapor1.6161111113LSep 29 · 13:30M. Lysakowski1.9111119163P. Gola1.806911141WSep 29 · 11:30D. Stapor1.58115351P. Gola2.2591111113WSep 29 · 10:30S. Wloszek2.051131181P. Gola1.6881113113WSep 29 · 09:00J. Chojnacki3.207760P. Gola1.311111113LSep 29 · 07:00M. Lysakowski1.6611116113P. Gola2.10751191WSep 29 · 05:00S. Radlo1.93811741P. Gola1.7911411113LSep 28 · 13:10J. Chojnacki1.9112111113P. Gola1.801081171LSep 28 · 11:00D. Stapor1.631111113P. Gola2.156690WSep 28 · 10:00P. Gola1.21116115133J. Chojnacki4.10311711112
M. Burkacki10
LOct 1 · 08:30M. Burkacki2.159570D. Stapor1.621111113WOct 1 · 07:00M. Burkacki1.47111159113J. Masternak2.5079111162LSep 16 · 13:40M. Burkacki2.87781281M. Ovcharenko1.37111110113WSep 16 · 12:00D. Stapor1.546811121M. Burkacki2.2511114143WSep 16 · 10:30M. Burkacki2.3511126113S. Radlo1.538101161WSep 16 · 08:30P. Gola1.5711911912M. Burkacki2.20611511113WSep 16 · 06:30B. Molka1.463990M. Burkacki2.481111113LSep 16 · 05:30M. Ovcharenko1.291111113M. Burkacki3.309950LSep 15 · 12:40D. Stapor1.61111011113M. Burkacki2.15812771LSep 15 · 12:00M. Ovcharenko1.3411116113M. Burkacki3.00231191
Upcoming Matches
P. Gola
M. Burkacki
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