TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13139570
Played Sep 16Finished
Mateusz Burkacki
Home
2.35
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1181210611116––
Szymon Radlo
Away
1.53
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:30 and never touched — 63.1% is still 63.1%
Graded at full timeSzymon Radlo to win
63.1%
63.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
75 points played in total.
Set by set
1181210611116––
H2H Mateusz Burkacki 18–21 Szymon Radlo Mateusz Burkacki has won 18 of their 39 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:30What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Radlo
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
18-21 in 39
Radlo
Wrong
gap of 3 in 39, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Burkacki 1518 vs Radlo 1526
Radlo
Wrong
both rated, 7 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Burkacki 40% vs Radlo 20%
Burkacki
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Burkacki 30% vs Radlo 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Burkacki +2 · Radlo -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Radlo) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Radlo form (20%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBurkacki 2.35 / Radlo 1.53
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Radlo)+0.8pp
TT Cup · #13139570
Burkacki2.35
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog39% won 57 of 146
Down 0–1, comes back23% 22 of 94
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 55
Radlo1.53
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite52% won 100 of 191
Up 2–0, closes it95% 53 of 56
Up 1–0, closes it76% 85 of 112
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBurkacki5wins
AwayRadlo5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBurkacki100%3 of 3
AwayRadlo71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Burkacki3Radlo7n = 10Radlo took 7 of 10
S2Burkacki5Radlo5n = 10split evenly
S3Burkacki5Radlo5n = 10split evenly
S4Burkacki4Radlo1n = 5Burkacki took 4 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricBurkackiRadloB − RBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match38.538.7−0.2per matchSweeps23−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBurkackiRadloBasisWin rate · lifetime94 / 234 vs 375 / 74940.2%50.1%94 / 234 vs 375 / 749Avg sets wonper match1.81.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.938.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RadloBurkacki 2.35/Radlo 1.53
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
61.4%
Radlo · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Burkacki won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 15 · 08:30M. Burkacki4511611173S. Radlo428118151
LSep 8 · 08:30M. Burkacki2897120S. Radlo361111143
WSep 7 · 12:40M. Burkacki391711113S. Radlo2815490
LSep 7 · 05:00M. Burkacki237970S. Radlo331111113
WSep 4 · 09:30M. Burkacki331111113S. Radlo279990
LSep 3 · 06:30M. Burkacki54915911102S. Radlo541113117123
LJul 8 · 05:30M. Burkacki378101181S. Radlo4211128113
WJul 7 · 08:00M. Burkacki561011711173S. Radlo55128119152
LJul 6 · 09:00M. Burkacki2485110S. Radlo351111133
WJul 5 · 20:35M. Burkacki46111113113S. Radlo351361151
M. Burkacki10
LSep 16 · 13:40M. Burkacki2.87781281M. Ovcharenko1.37111110113WSep 16 · 12:00D. Stapor1.546811121M. Burkacki2.2511114143WSep 16 · 08:30P. Gola1.5711911912M. Burkacki2.20611511113WSep 16 · 06:30B. Molka1.463990M. Burkacki2.481111113LSep 16 · 05:30M. Ovcharenko1.291111113M. Burkacki3.309950LSep 15 · 12:40D. Stapor1.61111011113M. Burkacki2.15812771LSep 15 · 12:00M. Ovcharenko1.3411116113M. Burkacki3.00231191LSep 15 · 10:30M. Burkacki2.8091211151M. Lysakowski1.3811148173WSep 15 · 08:30S. Radlo1.538118151M. Burkacki2.3511611173LSep 15 · 06:30D. Stapor1.611111113M. Burkacki2.138980
S. Radlo10
LSep 17 · 12:40S. Radlo1.751310110M. Lysakowski1.981512133WSep 17 · 11:00D. Skvarskyi2.325311111S. Radlo1.5511117133LSep 17 · 10:00S. Radlo1.98101360S. Wloszek1.731215113WSep 17 · 09:00S. Radlo2.501113113M. Lysakowski1.4791190LSep 17 · 07:30S. Radlo2.029460M. Galus1.681111113LSep 17 · 05:30S. Radlo2.371112100M. Stepien1.521314123WSep 16 · 12:40B. Molka1.681188141S. Radlo2.0561111163LSep 16 · 11:30P. Gola1.7591112113S. Radlo1.951161081LSep 16 · 09:00M. Ovcharenko1.391111113S. Radlo2.802920LSep 15 · 08:30S. Radlo1.538118151M. Burkacki2.3511611173
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