TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Mateusz Galus vs Jan Masternak 3-1 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
9111311114116––
Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:25 and never touched: 70.1% is still 70.1%
Graded at full timeMateusz Galus to win
70.1%
70.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
76 points played in total.
Set by set
9111311114116––
H2H Mateusz Galus 29–26 Jan Masternak Jan Masternak has won 26 of their 55 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:2570.1%Our read72.5%to break even at 1.38
short by 2.4pp72.5% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.38 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.38 (67%)
Galus
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
29-26 in 55
Galus
Correct
gap of 3 in 55, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Galus 1603 vs Masternak 1469
Galus
Correct
both rated, 134 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Galus 40% vs Masternak 20%
Galus
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Galus 30% vs Masternak 10%
Galus
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Galus +2 · Masternak -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% · Strong (leans Galus) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Masternak form (20%) is below what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGalus 1.38 / Masternak 2.80
Signal prob.70% / 30%
Edge (Galus)-2.4pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13221767
Galus1.38
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite56% won 128 of 229
Up 2–0, closes it99% 68 of 69
Up 1–0, closes it78% 96 of 123
Masternak2.80
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog41% won 104 of 251
Down 0–1, comes back25% 36 of 147
Down 0–2, comes back7% 6 of 89
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGalus3wins
AwayMasternak7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderMasternak leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGalus50%3 of 6
AwayMasternak100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Galus6Masternak4n = 10Galus took 6 of 10
S2Galus3Masternak7n = 10Masternak took 7 of 10
S3Galus3Masternak7n = 10Masternak took 7 of 10
S4Galus3Masternak3n = 6split evenly
S5Galus1Masternak3n = 4Masternak took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricGalusMasternakG − MBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.338.6−0.3per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGalusMasternakBasisWin rate · lifetime353 / 669 vs 405 / 92752.8%43.7%353 / 669 vs 405 / 927Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.838.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
GalusGalus 1.38/Masternak 2.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
70.1%
Galus · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Galus won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 24 · 12:00M. Galus30108120J. Masternak371211143
LAug 30 · 21:35M. Galus217770J. Masternak331111113
LAug 27 · 12:40M. Galus4611971272J. Masternak518111110113
WAug 27 · 08:30M. Galus3811115113J. Masternak31291191
WAug 20 · 06:30M. Galus47116118113J. Masternak3241111152
LAug 4 · 09:00M. Galus54119811152J. Masternak50211119173
LAug 2 · 18:35M. Galus4691111692J. Masternak49119711113
LJul 30 · 12:40M. Galus37128891J. Masternak43101111113
WJul 30 · 08:00M. Galus341211113J. Masternak2410590
LJul 16 · 12:00M. Galus3091290J. Masternak361114113
M. Galus10
WSep 30 · 09:30B. Molka2.1010101181M. Galus1.6512125113WSep 30 · 08:30M. Galus1.201111113J. Chojnacki3.605440LSep 30 · 07:30S. Wloszek2.401115814123M. Galus1.506131116102LSep 30 · 07:00M. Galus1.626119101S. Radlo2.0211811123LSep 24 · 12:30M. Galus1.399111161B. Fraczek2.8011135113LSep 24 · 12:00J. Masternak3.081211143M. Galus1.33108120LSep 24 · 10:30M. Galus2.34521181P. Gola1.5411118113WSep 24 · 08:30B. Fraczek2.601241171M. Galus1.4114116113LSep 24 · 06:30S. Wloszek2.4011911113M. Galus1.50711781LSep 24 · 05:30M. Lysakowski1.66141211113M. Galus2.101214471
J. Masternak10
LSep 30 · 10:30J. Chojnacki2.751111113J. Masternak1.408990LSep 30 · 09:00S. Wloszek1.50111011113J. Masternak2.40912381WSep 30 · 06:00S. Radlo1.721118111692J. Masternak2.0113161314113LSep 30 · 05:00B. Molka1.801111113J. Masternak1.905880LSep 25 · 12:30B. Fraczek1.38111111113J. Masternak2.85891341LSep 25 · 11:30D. Stapor1.937111310113J. Masternak1.79119111292LSep 25 · 10:30P. Gola1.75471111113J. Masternak1.9811116882LSep 25 · 09:00B. Fraczek1.601111163J. Masternak2.1097140LSep 25 · 07:00M. Lysakowski1.551111113J. Masternak2.305880WSep 24 · 12:00J. Masternak3.081211143M. Galus1.33108120
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