TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Szymon Radlo vs Mateusz Galus 3-1 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1181012118116––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:29 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeSzymon Radlo to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
77 points played in total.
Set by set
1181012118116––
H2H Szymon Radlo 31–27 Mateusz Galus Mateusz Galus has won 27 of their 58 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 7h before this match
Radlo beat Galus 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:2954.0%Our read45.5%to break even at 2.20
clears by 8.5pp45.5% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 2.20 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.60 (58%)
Galus
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
31-27 in 58
Radlo
Correct
gap of 4 in 58, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Radlo 1547 vs Galus 1611
Galus
Wrong
both rated, 64 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Radlo 60% vs Galus 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Radlo 50% vs Galus 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Radlo -1 · Galus +3
Galus
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Radlo) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Radlo form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRadlo 2.20 / Galus 1.60
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Radlo)+8.5pp
TT Cup · #13222395
Radlo2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog50% won 169 of 340
Down 0–1, comes back22% 35 of 160
Down 0–2, comes back7% 7 of 96
Galus1.60
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite56% won 128 of 229
Up 2–0, closes it99% 68 of 69
Up 1–0, closes it78% 96 of 123
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRadlo5wins
AwayGalus5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRadlo100%4 of 4
AwayGalus83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Radlo4Galus6n = 10Galus took 6 of 10
S2Radlo3Galus7n = 10Galus took 7 of 10
S3Radlo6Galus4n = 10Radlo took 6 of 10
S4Radlo3Galus6n = 9Galus took 6 of 9
S5Radlo3Galus0n = 3Radlo took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricRadloGalusR − GBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match40.743.1−2.4per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRadloGalusBasisWin rate · lifetime395 / 799 vs 354 / 66949.4%52.9%395 / 799 vs 354 / 669Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.738.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
RadloRadlo 2.20/Galus 1.60
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Radlo · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Radlo won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 30 · 07:00S. Radlo4211811123M. Galus366119101
LSep 23 · 09:30S. Radlo361111771M. Galus4113611113
LSep 17 · 07:30S. Radlo199460M. Galus331111113
LSep 10 · 08:30S. Radlo3712111041M. Galus4614912113
LAug 31 · 08:30S. Radlo22251141M. Galus4211119113
WAug 30 · 17:05S. Radlo49117118123M. Galus46811611102
WAug 27 · 11:30S. Radlo45111310113M. Galus356111261
WAug 25 · 11:30S. Radlo541291111113M. Galus4914118792
WAug 20 · 05:30S. Radlo591191112163M. Galus55911714142
LAug 18 · 07:30S. Radlo44991791M. Galus48111115113
S. Radlo10
LSep 30 · 12:00S. Radlo2.52711661J. Chojnacki1.4711611113WSep 30 · 10:00S. Wloszek2.059980S. Radlo1.661111113WSep 30 · 08:00B. Molka1.651071171S. Radlo2.1012116113WSep 30 · 07:00M. Galus1.626119101S. Radlo2.0211811123LSep 30 · 06:00S. Radlo1.721118111692J. Masternak2.0113161314113LSep 29 · 13:00D. Stapor1.911315115113S. Radlo1.80151351192WSep 29 · 11:00S. Radlo1.311311811123J. Chojnacki3.201191113102WSep 29 · 09:30S. Radlo2.23161211113D. Stapor1.591810791LSep 29 · 08:00S. Radlo2.556118111M. Lysakowski1.4611911133LSep 29 · 06:30S. Radlo1.9811516101S. Wloszek1.73131114123
M. Galus10
WSep 30 · 11:30M. Galus1.3891311113J. Masternak2.801111461WSep 30 · 09:30B. Molka2.1010101181M. Galus1.6512125113WSep 30 · 08:30M. Galus1.201111113J. Chojnacki3.605440LSep 30 · 07:30S. Wloszek2.401115814123M. Galus1.506131116102LSep 30 · 07:00M. Galus1.626119101S. Radlo2.0211811123LSep 24 · 12:30M. Galus1.399111161B. Fraczek2.8011135113LSep 24 · 12:00J. Masternak3.081211143M. Galus1.33108120LSep 24 · 10:30M. Galus2.34521181P. Gola1.5411118113WSep 24 · 08:30B. Fraczek2.601241171M. Galus1.4114116113LSep 24 · 06:30S. Wloszek2.4011911113M. Galus1.50711781
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.