TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Michal Brozek vs Vaclav Nadvornik 0-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
9111012611––––
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:22 and never touched: 62.4% is still 62.4%
Graded at full timeVaclav Nadvornik to win
62.4%
62.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Brozek above · Vaclav Nadvornik below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 59 set 3, 6-11 · our read held Vaclav Nadvornik at 62.4%
59 points played in total.
H2H Michal Brozek 3–11 Vaclav Nadvornik Michal Brozek has won 3 of their 14 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:2262.4%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 2.8pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Nadvornik
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-11 in 14
Nadvornik
Correct
gap of 8 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Brozek 1676 vs Nadvornik 1747
Nadvornik
Correct
both rated, 71 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Brozek 80% vs Nadvornik 60%
Brozek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Brozek 70% vs Nadvornik 80%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Brozek +1 · Nadvornik +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% · Clear lean (leans Nadvornik) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Brozek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBrozek 2.375 / Nadvornik 1.533
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Nadvornik)-2.8pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13229924
Brozek2.38
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 30)
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog40% won 65 of 162
Down 0–1, comes back14% 11 of 79
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 41
Nadvornik1.53
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite66% won 27 of 41
Up 2–0, closes it91% 10 of 11
Up 1–0, closes it76% 16 of 21
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBrozek1wins
AwayNadvornik9wins
4 of 10 to a deciderNadvornik leads 9–1, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBrozek25%1 of 4
AwayNadvornik100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Brozek4Nadvornik6n = 10Nadvornik took 6 of 10
S2Brozek1Nadvornik9n = 10Nadvornik took 9 of 10
S3Brozek3Nadvornik7n = 10Nadvornik took 7 of 10
S4Brozek2Nadvornik4n = 6Nadvornik took 4 of 6
S5Brozek1Nadvornik3n = 4Nadvornik took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricBrozekNadvornikB − NBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match32.840.1−7.3per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBrozekNadvornikBasisWin rate · lifetime517 / 992 vs 173 / 31452.1%55.1%517 / 992 vs 173 / 314Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.837.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
NadvornikBrozek 2.38/Nadvornik 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.4%
Nadvornik · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Nadvornik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 2 · 07:25M. Brozek2591060V. Nadvornik341112113
LSep 22 · 10:20M. Brozek4891111982V. Nadvornik46116711113
LMay 20 · 07:25M. Brozek4411911582V. Nadvornik47911511113
LMay 18 · 06:55M. Brozek4114761132V. Nadvornik511211116113
LApr 30 · 12:20M. Brozek303611101V. Nadvornik4111117123
WFeb 16 · 10:25M. Brozek481151011113V. Nadvornik3861112452
LDec 5 · 08:55M. Brozek209470V. Nadvornik331111113
LNov 20 · 09:25M. Brozek30138631V. Nadvornik44111111113
LOct 25 · 15:55M. Brozek164570V. Nadvornik331111113
LOct 21 · 10:35M. Brozek2671090V. Nadvornik341112113
M. Brozek10
LOct 2 · 08:55J. Benak1.40541111113M. Brozek2.7511115722LOct 2 · 08:25J. Kocab1.4411116113M. Brozek2.63371161WSep 30 · 17:53P. Dvorak2.108070M. Brozek1.671111113LSep 30 · 16:20M. Brozek1.5371131172P. Dvorak2.38118118113WSep 30 · 15:20M. Brozek1.731111113D. Hyza2.009550WSep 30 · 14:20M. Brozek1.838121011113P. Benes1.83111012872WSep 26 · 22:28M. Brozek1.53111184113P. Dvorak2.3888111132LSep 26 · 21:25M. Prochazka1.6111911113M. Brozek2.20411691WSep 26 · 20:25M. Brozek2.5091311123A. Kosacky1.5011112101WSep 26 · 18:55P. Dvorak1.832260M. Brozek1.831111113
V. Nadvornik10
LOct 2 · 07:55J. Benak1.801111911113V. Nadvornik1.9113811592WOct 1 · 10:09V. Nadvornik2.0011611113M. Cerny1.73911271LOct 1 · 08:55D. Vesecky1.73118711113V. Nadvornik2.0051111682WOct 1 · 08:25M. Cerny1.5795100V. Nadvornik2.251111123LOct 1 · 07:25V. Nadvornik2.388840D. Bochnak1.531111113WSep 22 · 14:05V. Nadvornik1.6091211113P. Benes2.201110861WSep 22 · 12:20V. Nadvornik2.0011115113J. Kocab1.73961181WSep 22 · 11:20V. Nadvornik1.57821111123P. Benes2.25111199102WSep 22 · 10:20V. Nadvornik1.73116711113M. Brozek2.0091111982WSep 10 · 14:25V. Nadvornik1.28116612113O. Fiklik3.15911111072
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