TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Jakub Simek vs Roman Merkl 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
6111191198111416
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:14 and never touched: 68.9% is still 68.9%
Graded at full timeJakub Simek to win
68.9%
68.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJakub Simek above · Roman Merkl below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 14-16
Point 106 set 5, 14-16 · our read held Jakub Simek at 68.9%
106 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Simek 7–3 Roman Merkl Roman Merkl has won 3 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:1468.9%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444
short by 0.4pp69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Simek
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
7-3 in 10
Simek
Wrong
gap of 4 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Simek 1566 vs Merkl 1505
Simek
Wrong
both rated, 61 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Simek 60% vs Merkl 40%
Simek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Simek 60% vs Merkl 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Simek +2 · Merkl +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% · Clear lean (leans Simek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSimek 1.444 / Merkl 2.625
Signal prob.69% / 31%
Edge (Simek)-0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13223813
Simek1.44
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite52% won 11 of 21
Up 2–0, closes it100% 5 of 5
Up 1–0, closes it89% 8 of 9
Merkl2.63
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog49% won 87 of 179
Down 0–1, comes back39% 41 of 104
Down 0–2, comes back18% 9 of 49
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSimek7wins
AwayMerkl3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderSimek leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSimek80%4 of 5
AwayMerkl40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Simek5Merkl5n = 10split evenly
S2Simek6Merkl4n = 10Simek took 6 of 10
S3Simek6Merkl3n = 9Simek took 6 of 9
S4Simek6Merkl2n = 8Simek took 6 of 8
S5Simek2Merkl2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSimekMerklS − MBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match43.037.8+5.2per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSimekMerklBasisWin rate · lifetime86 / 170 vs 262 / 55650.6%47.1%86 / 170 vs 262 / 556Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.439.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SimekSimek 1.44/Merkl 2.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
68.9%
Simek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Merkl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WSep 8 · 17:45J. Simek4111811113R. Merkl31811571
WSep 20 · 07:15J. Simek341111123R. Merkl2046100
WSep 16 · 10:15J. Simek4391111123R. Merkl321183101
WSep 10 · 10:15J. Simek531091111123R. Merkl49121197102
LAug 29 · 21:10J. Simek367111081R. Merkl4011612113
LAug 29 · 20:00J. Simek4591151192R. Merkl47117117113
LJun 19 · 09:15J. Simek44117511102R. Merkl46611116123
WApr 29 · 12:10J. Simek4211911113R. Merkl31711851
WApr 29 · 10:45J. Simek49711119113R. Merkl4411941192
J. Simek10
WOct 1 · 09:15J. Simek1.9111101213113L. Kolman1.80612101552WSep 30 · 13:08L. Smazik1.67111111101J. Simek2.1013138123LSep 30 · 11:30J. Simek1.73914121182P. Provaznik2.001112149113LSep 30 · 10:30J. Simek2.001161011112L. Smazik1.73711129133WSep 30 · 09:30J. Simek1.801111113T. Hrstka1.917670LSep 26 · 16:26D. Brichacek1.83111193J. Simek1.838380LSep 26 · 15:15J. Simek2.2599111192D. Brichacek1.57111187103WSep 26 · 14:15J. Simek1.911212910103L. Kolman1.801010111292WSep 26 · 13:15J. Simek1.50111183R. Merkl2.509950WSep 18 · 12:19J. Simek2.1011118113T. Hucko1.67651171
R. Merkl10
WOct 1 · 09:45M. Svitac1.53311111172R. Merkl2.38117313113LSep 28 · 08:48R. Merkl1.91861121T. Kanka1.8011114113WSep 28 · 07:45T. Kanka1.83411281R. Merkl1.83111110113LSep 28 · 06:45Z. Kuksa1.61111168113R. Merkl2.2095111142LSep 28 · 05:15P. Orlowski1.73111186113R. Merkl2.0058111182WSep 27 · 21:04R. Merkl1.5711119113F. Kubos2.25651151WSep 27 · 20:00L. Kolman1.5758111192R. Merkl2.25111118113WSep 27 · 19:00A. Pavlik1.8014991392R. Merkl1.9112111111113LSep 27 · 17:30F. Kubos3.25711116113R. Merkl1.3311681182LSep 26 · 13:15J. Simek1.50111183R. Merkl2.509950
Upcoming Matches
J. Simek
Nothing scheduled
R. Merkl
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.