TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Petr Zmuda vs Jakub Stolfa 1-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
116211811711––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:57 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePetr Zmuda to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPetr Zmuda above · Jakub Stolfa below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 2-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 67 set 4, 7-11 · our read held Petr Zmuda at 54.0%
67 points played in total.
H2H Petr Zmuda 7–10 Jakub Stolfa Petr Zmuda has won 7 of their 17 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 05:5754.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Zmuda
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
7-10 in 17
Stolfa
Correct
gap of 3 in 17, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zmuda 1653 vs Stolfa 1638
Zmuda
Wrong
both rated, 15 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zmuda 60% vs Stolfa 40%
Zmuda
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zmuda 70% vs Stolfa 30%
Zmuda
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Zmuda +1 · Stolfa +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Zmuda) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stolfa form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZmuda 1.80 / Stolfa 1.909
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Zmuda)-1.6pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13221150
Zmuda1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 1 day ago (Sep 30)
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite61% won 66 of 109
Up 2–0, closes it100% 29 of 29
Up 1–0, closes it87% 46 of 53
Stolfa1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 29)
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog52% won 69 of 134
Down 0–1, comes back35% 26 of 75
Down 0–2, comes back6% 2 of 34
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZmuda5wins
AwayStolfa5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZmuda42.9%3 of 7
AwayStolfa33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zmuda7Stolfa3n = 10Zmuda took 7 of 10
S2Zmuda3Stolfa7n = 10Stolfa took 7 of 10
S3Zmuda4Stolfa6n = 10Stolfa took 6 of 10
S4Zmuda5Stolfa5n = 10split evenly
S5Zmuda3Stolfa2n = 5Zmuda took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricZmudaStolfaZ − SBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match41.241.7−0.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZmudaStolfaBasisWin rate · lifetime134 / 255 vs 219 / 41852.6%52.4%134 / 255 vs 219 / 418Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.237.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ZmudaZmuda 1.80/Stolfa 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Zmuda · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Stolfa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 1 · 06:00P. Zmuda28112871J. Stolfa3961111113
WSep 17 · 06:30P. Zmuda47611811113J. Stolfa4011711652
LSep 14 · 06:00P. Zmuda50119911102J. Stolfa47711116123
LAug 22 · 08:00P. Zmuda4167111162J. Stolfa48111178113
WAug 12 · 15:00P. Zmuda511181110113J. Stolfa4171171242
WJul 14 · 12:00P. Zmuda43111011113J. Stolfa35912681
WJul 13 · 09:30P. Zmuda49111458113J. Stolfa49612111192
LJul 13 · 08:00P. Zmuda341157111J. Stolfa4381111133
WJul 7 · 12:00P. Zmuda3951111123J. Stolfa351168101
LJul 7 · 08:58P. Zmuda30113791J. Stolfa4071111113
P. Zmuda10
WOct 1 · 08:00P. Zmuda1.444111411113M. Vedmoch2.63117121382WOct 1 · 07:30J. Plachy2.75115981P. Zmuda1.4091111113WSep 30 · 02:58P. Zmuda1.361111113D. Tuma3.005780LSep 30 · 02:30P. Zmuda2.201289101V. Dvorak1.61101111123WSep 30 · 01:30D. Tuma2.204750P. Zmuda1.611111113LSep 30 · 00:00P. Zmuda1.67911831R. Krejci2.1011911113WSep 29 · 23:00K. Schopf1.614980P. Zmuda2.201111113WSep 29 · 21:30P. Zmuda1.6111134113D. Tuma2.209111171WSep 29 · 20:00P. Zmuda1.91341111123M. Bittner1.80111174102LSep 29 · 19:30K. Kapras1.75111111113P. Zmuda1.85913661
J. Stolfa10
WOct 1 · 07:00J. Stolfa1.8381513123M. Vedmoch1.83111311101WSep 29 · 13:00J. Stolfa1.911111113J. Trefny1.806780WSep 29 · 12:30J. Stolfa2.10611811113J. Trefny1.6711611752LSep 29 · 11:00J. Stolfa2.2511115452V. Cermak1.57791111113LSep 29 · 10:00M. Sobisek2.63111195143J. Stolfa1.44671111122LSep 29 · 09:30J. Trefny1.8011114113J. Stolfa1.90691181WSep 29 · 08:00J. Stolfa1.531211113M. Sobisek2.3810770LSep 29 · 07:30J. Trefny2.00101111123J. Stolfa1.731266101LSep 29 · 06:00J. Stolfa2.258115101V. Cermak1.5711711123LSep 28 · 21:00J. Stolfa1.446610J. Trefny2.631111113
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