TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Jirasek Martin vs Roman Jonas 3-0 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119117115––––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:52 and never touched: 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeJirasek Martin to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingJirasek Martin above · Roman Jonas below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-5
Point 54 set 3, 11-5 · our read held Jirasek Martin at 58.9%
54 points played in total.
H2H Jirasek Martin 1–0 Roman Jonas Roman Jonas has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:5258.9%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 4.8pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Martin
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Martin 1508 vs Jonas 1324
Martin
Correct
both rated, 184 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Martin 60% vs Jonas 40%
Martin
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Martin 30% vs Jonas 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Martin -1 · Jonas +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Martin) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMartin 1.571 / Jonas 2.25
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Martin)-4.8pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13221080
Martin1.57
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite61% won 31 of 51
Up 2–0, closes it95% 18 of 19
Up 1–0, closes it80% 24 of 30
Jonas2.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 14 days ago (Sep 16) · back after a break
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog13% won 2 of 15
Down 0–1, comes back9% 1 of 11
Down 0–2, comes back14% 1 of 7
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeMartin1wins
AwayJonas0wins
Martin leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricMartinJonasM − JBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match33.021.0+12.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMartinJonasBasisWin rate · lifetime66 / 123 vs 35 / 8253.7%42.7%66 / 123 vs 35 / 82Avg sets wonper match2.11.8per matchAvg pointsper match37.336.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MartinMartin 1.57/Jonas 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.9%
Martin · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Martin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WSep 30 · 18:05J. Martin331111113R. Jonas219750
J. Martin10
WSep 30 · 20:05J. Martin1.5711119133L. Vosyka2.258811111WSep 30 · 19:05J. Martin1.28111410113M. Cyrus3.506121241LSep 29 · 21:45J. Martin1.57811116152T. Krcil2.25118811173WSep 29 · 20:05J. Martin1.53127115113T. Krcil2.38101171182WSep 29 · 19:05J. Martin1.83127811123J. Kabelka1.831011117102WSep 29 · 18:05J. Martin1.401111113M. Cyrus2.756790LSep 26 · 21:10L. Vana1.677111110113J. Martin2.1011971252LSep 26 · 20:35J. Martin2.25491361L. Vana1.57111111113LSep 26 · 19:05D. Hons1.80711116113J. Martin1.9111771182LSep 26 · 18:35K. Lahodny1.83961111113J. Martin1.8311119952
R. Jonas10
LSep 30 · 21:03R. Jonas1.61891181M. Cyrus2.2011114113WSep 30 · 20:35M. Cyrus1.803530R. Jonas1.911111113LSep 30 · 19:35R. Jonas3.00761161L. Vosyka1.3611117113WSep 16 · 21:15R. Vavricka1.33751181R. Jonas3.2511119113LSep 16 · 20:35M. Cyrus2.0016811113R. Jonas1.731411891LSep 16 · 19:35R. Jonas2.63611791L. Vosyka1.4411511113LSep 16 · 18:05R. Vavricka1.501111113R. Jonas2.506670WSep 14 · 21:05M. Cyrus2.00331191R. Jonas1.7311117113LSep 14 · 20:35M. Rojka1.57111198113R. Jonas2.2544111192LSep 14 · 19:35R. Jonas1.83971151M. Cyrus1.8311119113
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