TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Filip Mandrysz vs Lukas Zustina 0-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
611811711––––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:36 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeFilip Mandrysz to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingFilip Mandrysz above · Lukas Zustina below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 54 set 3, 7-11 · our read held Filip Mandrysz at 54.0%
54 points played in total.
H2H Filip Mandrysz 2–4 Lukas Zustina Filip Mandrysz has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickContradict
Sealed 14:3654.0%Our read52.4%to break even at 1.909
clears by 1.6pp52.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.909 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Zustina
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-4 in 6
Zustina
Correct
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mandrysz 1396 vs Zustina 1321
Mandrysz
Wrong
both rated, 74 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mandrysz 80% vs Zustina 60%
Mandrysz
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mandrysz 70% vs Zustina 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Mandrysz +3 · Zustina +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent, and the gate let it through as Contradict.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Mandrysz) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mandrysz form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMandrysz 1.909 / Zustina 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Mandrysz)+1.6pp
TT Cup · #13220841
Mandrysz1.91
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog45% won 59 of 131
Down 0–1, comes back34% 29 of 85
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 43
Zustina1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite37% won 14 of 38
Up 2–0, closes it100% 6 of 6
Up 1–0, closes it53% 9 of 17
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeMandrysz2wins
AwayZustina4wins
4 of 6 to a deciderZustina leads 4–2, and 4 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMandrysz20%1 of 5
AwayZustinan = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mandrysz5Zustina1n = 6Mandrysz took 5 of 6
S2Mandrysz2Zustina4n = 6Zustina took 4 of 6
S3Mandrysz3Zustina3n = 6split evenly
S4Mandrysz2Zustina4n = 6Zustina took 4 of 6
S5Mandrysz1Zustina3n = 4Zustina took 3 of 4
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away350%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricMandryszZustinaM − ZBasisWins24−2in 6 meetingsFirst set51+4of 6Avg pointsper match46.745.8+0.9per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMandryszZustinaBasisWin rate · lifetime232 / 458 vs 56 / 11950.7%47.1%232 / 458 vs 56 / 119Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.936.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MandryszMandrysz 1.91/Zustina 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Mandrysz · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Zustina won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LSep 3 · 16:48F. Mandrysz49111169122L. Zustina46731111143
WSep 3 · 15:15F. Mandrysz5511111111113L. Zustina5013881382
LMay 6 · 05:40F. Mandrysz46115111092L. Zustina52911912113
WApr 25 · 08:10F. Mandrysz4312711133L. Zustina3810116111
LFeb 18 · 14:20F. Mandrysz491171011102L. Zustina46611125123
LFeb 18 · 12:10F. Mandrysz381181181L. Zustina4381113113
F. Mandrysz10
WSep 30 · 13:40F. Mandrysz1.731111128113J. Lysek2.0099141142WSep 25 · 16:40F. Mandrysz1.801111113P. Sturma1.913450WSep 25 · 15:40L. Krupnik Jr1.91911914102F. Mandrysz1.801151112123LSep 25 · 15:10J. Lysek1.9111118113F. Mandrysz1.80461161WSep 25 · 14:10F. Mandrysz1.9191111113P. Sturma1.80118751WSep 22 · 16:40F. Mandrysz2.2011115113O. Vaclahovsky1.61751131LSep 22 · 16:10L. Krupnik Jr2.1011118113F. Mandrysz1.67871181WSep 22 · 15:10F. Mandrysz2.5011119113O. Vaclahovsky1.50571191LSep 22 · 13:40T. Ogrocki1.671112113F. Mandrysz2.1051040WSep 20 · 13:09F. Mandrysz2.1091111123P. Chvojka1.671149101
L. Zustina10
WSep 30 · 14:10M. Sobota2.00117981L. Zustina1.7381111113WSep 24 · 16:45L. Zustina1.501111113J. Lysek2.505770WSep 24 · 16:15L. Zustina1.911111113J. Lysek1.806740LSep 24 · 14:45M. Dolezal1.8311116113L. Zustina1.83471191LSep 24 · 14:15P. Sturma2.0081211143L. Zustina1.7311107121WSep 24 · 13:20Z. Chovancik1.67121110982L. Zustina2.101071211113WSep 24 · 11:45P. Sturma1.911187101L. Zustina1.8061111123WSep 24 · 11:15R. Sedivy3.004830L. Zustina1.361111113LSep 24 · 10:15L. Zustina1.8041150Z. Chovancik1.911113113LSep 16 · 12:48L. Krupnik Jr1.531111113L. Zustina2.388670
Upcoming Matches
F. Mandrysz
Nothing scheduled
L. Zustina
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