TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Serhii Baranskyi vs Maksym Stetsenko 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 4
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
119711311115411
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:23 and never touched: 62.0% is still 62.0%
Graded at full timeSerhii Baranskyi to win
62.0%
62.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingSerhii Baranskyi above · Maksym Stetsenko below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 3-11
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 4-11
Point 83 set 5, 4-11 · our read held Serhii Baranskyi at 62.0%
83 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Baranskyi 4–1 Maksym Stetsenko Maksym Stetsenko has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:2362.0%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 3.2pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Baranskyi
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-1 in 5
Baranskyi
Wrong
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Baranskyi 1403 vs Stetsenko 1410
Stetsenko
Correct
both rated, 7 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Baranskyi 20% vs Stetsenko 80%
Stetsenko
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Baranskyi 60% vs Stetsenko 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Baranskyi -4 · Stetsenko +2
Baranskyi
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% · Clear lean (leans Baranskyi) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stetsenko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBaranskyi 1.533 / Stetsenko 2.375
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Baranskyi)-3.2pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13219080
Baranskyi1.53
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 11 days ago (Sep 19) · back after a break
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite68% won 25 of 37
Up 2–0, closes it93% 13 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it80% 20 of 25
Stetsenko2.38
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 28)
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog43% won 92 of 214
Down 0–1, comes back24% 29 of 123
Down 0–2, comes back5% 3 of 60
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeBaranskyi4wins
AwayStetsenko1wins
Baranskyi leads 4–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBaranskyi100%3 of 3
AwayStetsenkon = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Baranskyi3Stetsenko2n = 5Baranskyi took 3 of 5
S2Baranskyi3Stetsenko2n = 5Baranskyi took 3 of 5
S3Baranskyi4Stetsenko1n = 5Baranskyi took 4 of 5
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home240%
3–1Four sets, home240%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricBaranskyiStetsenkoB − SBasisWins41+3in 5 meetingsFirst set32+1of 5Avg pointsper match35.427.6+7.8per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBaranskyiStetsenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime107 / 202 vs 452 / 86853%52.1%107 / 202 vs 452 / 868Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.037.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
BaranskyiBaranskyi 1.53/Stetsenko 2.38
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62%
Baranskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Stetsenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WSep 13 · 15:30S. Baranskyi341111123M. Stetsenko2165100
LMay 1 · 11:30S. Baranskyi269980M. Stetsenko331111113
WMar 1 · 18:40S. Baranskyi4181111113M. Stetsenko26112941
WJun 7 · 06:30S. Baranskyi4111712113M. Stetsenko347111061
WJun 1 · 17:10S. Baranskyi351211123M. Stetsenko24104100
S. Baranskyi10
LSep 19 · 18:30O. Lipeiko1.7311811123S. Baranskyi2.006119101LSep 19 · 17:30S. Solomko1.44111187113S. Baranskyi2.6376111162LSep 19 · 16:00B. Zaika1.3311119113S. Baranskyi3.25641171LSep 19 · 14:00E. Populovskyi1.731611113S. Baranskyi2.0014990WSep 19 · 12:00A. Martyniuk1.5068140S. Baranskyi2.501111163WSep 13 · 18:30S. Baranskyi1.731111113O. Ovsiienko2.004980WSep 13 · 16:30A. Dekhtiarenko1.8311911572S. Baranskyi1.83611511113WSep 13 · 15:30S. Baranskyi1.611111123M. Stetsenko2.2065100WSep 13 · 14:30O. Mytsyk1.804960S. Baranskyi1.91111173WSep 13 · 13:00S. Baranskyi2.001111113V. Melnykov1.736750
M. Stetsenko10
WSep 30 · 13:30O. Mytsyk2.256611131M. Stetsenko1.5711118153WSep 28 · 12:20O. Mytsyk2.006970M. Stetsenko1.731111113WSep 28 · 11:20O. Lipeiko1.36115671M. Stetsenko3.0091111113LSep 28 · 09:50V. Melnykov2.631113113M. Stetsenko1.4471180WSep 28 · 07:50A. Kovalenko1.339980M. Stetsenko3.251111113WSep 28 · 05:50S. Skhabitskiy1.83118941M. Stetsenko1.8351111113LSep 27 · 19:00S. Skhabitskiy2.0011136113M. Stetsenko1.738111181WSep 27 · 17:30M. Stetsenko1.83511118113O. Ovsiienko1.8311581162WSep 27 · 15:30V. Smyk1.61911118122M. Stetsenko2.20115711143LSep 13 · 15:30S. Baranskyi1.611111123M. Stetsenko2.2065100
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