TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Dominik Tichy vs Zdenek Zahradka 3-0 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 29Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1210114119––––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:56 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDominik Tichy to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingDominik Tichy above · Zdenek Zahradka below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 57 set 3, 11-9 · our read held Dominik Tichy at 54.0%
57 points played in total.
H2H Dominik Tichy 10–9 Zdenek Zahradka Zdenek Zahradka has won 9 of their 19 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Tichy beat Zahradka 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:56What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Tichy
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
10-9 in 19
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tichy 1411 vs Zahradka 1368
Tichy
Correct
both rated, 42 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tichy 20% vs Zahradka 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tichy 30% vs Zahradka 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Tichy -2 · Zahradka -3
Zahradka
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Tichy) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zahradka form (20%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTichy 1.61 / Zahradka 2.20
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Tichy)-3.7pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13218325
Tichy1.61
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite67% won 128 of 190
Up 2–0, closes it91% 64 of 70
Up 1–0, closes it81% 101 of 125
Zahradka2.20
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog36% won 71 of 200
Down 0–1, comes back13% 14 of 112
Down 0–2, comes back5% 3 of 62
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTichy6wins
AwayZahradka4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderTichy leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTichy80%4 of 5
AwayZahradka60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tichy5Zahradka5n = 10split evenly
S2Tichy6Zahradka4n = 10Tichy took 6 of 10
S3Tichy5Zahradka5n = 10split evenly
S4Tichy4Zahradka4n = 8split evenly
S5Tichy3Zahradka2n = 5Tichy took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricTichyZahradkaT − ZBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.239.4−0.2per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTichyZahradkaBasisWin rate · lifetime171 / 276 vs 393 / 80562%48.8%171 / 276 vs 393 / 805Avg sets wonper match2.32.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.538.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
TichyTichy 1.61/Zahradka 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Tichy · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Tichy won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 29 · 15:25D. Tichy51715711113Z. Zahradka45111311372
WSep 16 · 17:19D. Tichy43111011113Z. Zahradka30712561
LSep 16 · 16:20D. Tichy163670Z. Zahradka331111113
WSep 5 · 18:04D. Tichy4111711123Z. Zahradka389118101
LSep 5 · 16:25D. Tichy30913441Z. Zahradka44111111113
WAug 30 · 10:55D. Tichy331111113Z. Zahradka175660
LAug 29 · 08:55D. Tichy44111148102Z. Zahradka47761111123
WAug 21 · 18:20D. Tichy48116119113Z. Zahradka4441191192
WAug 21 · 17:25D. Tichy46411611143Z. Zahradka47117116122
LAug 17 · 15:50D. Tichy4051111852Z. Zahradka49119711113
D. Tichy10
LSep 29 · 17:25D. Tichy2.632411121J. Cerny1.4411113143LSep 29 · 15:55M. Dvorak1.571111113D. Tichy2.257730WSep 29 · 15:25Z. Zahradka2.10111311372D. Tichy1.67715711113LSep 21 · 17:29J. Cerny1.36111186113D. Tichy3.0098111142LSep 21 · 16:20J. Cerny1.801111113D. Tichy1.916960LSep 21 · 15:50M. Dvorak1.8371111113D. Tichy1.83114691LSep 21 · 14:50D. Tichy1.8310970J. Dvorak1.831211113WSep 18 · 18:30J. Dvorak1.65119181182D. Tichy2.109111613113WSep 18 · 16:55R. Jamrich2.2049100D. Tichy1.611111123LSep 18 · 16:25F. Marat2.385121111113D. Tichy1.5311146432
Z. Zahradka10
LSep 29 · 16:55M. Dvorak1.73115117113Z. Zahradka2.0031151172LSep 29 · 16:25J. Cerny1.57116711113Z. Zahradka2.2581111782LSep 29 · 15:25Z. Zahradka2.10111311372D. Tichy1.67715711113WSep 27 · 09:59A. Kral1.7356120Z. Zahradka2.001111143LSep 27 · 09:25Z. Zahradka1.838411101A. Kral1.8311118123WSep 27 · 07:55J. Kulveit1.5351111992Z. Zahradka2.38117711113LSep 27 · 07:25R. Jamrich1.9111811113Z. Zahradka1.80711851LSep 25 · 17:31D. Sochor3.7541111123Z. Zahradka1.251197101WSep 25 · 16:20Z. Zahradka1.53111011113J. Hendrych2.38812721LSep 25 · 15:20Z. Zahradka2.3813118101P. Moravec1.5315911123
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