TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Michal Wollny vs David Szotek 1-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 30Finished
Michal Wollny
Home
1.53
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 4
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
6115111191012––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:50 and never touched: 61.2% is still 61.2%
Graded at full timeMichal Wollny to win
61.2%
61.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMichal Wollny above · David Szotek below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 75 set 4, 10-12 · our read held Michal Wollny at 61.2%
75 points played in total.
H2H Michal Wollny 6–7 David Szotek Michal Wollny has won 6 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:5061.2%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 4.0pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Wollny
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
6-7 in 13
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Wollny 1696 vs Szotek 1627
Wollny
Wrong
both rated, 69 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Wollny 20% vs Szotek 80%
Szotek
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Wollny 50% vs Szotek 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Wollny -4 · Szotek +4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% · Slight lean (leans Wollny) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Szotek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsWollny 1.533 / Szotek 2.375
Signal prob.61% / 39%
Edge (Wollny)-4.0pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13215889
Wollny1.53
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 27 days ago (Sep 03) · back after a break
Lost last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite53% won 25 of 47
Up 2–0, closes it91% 10 of 11
Up 1–0, closes it73% 19 of 26
Szotek2.38
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 28)
Won last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog43% won 53 of 124
Down 0–1, comes back28% 18 of 64
Down 0–2, comes back8% 3 of 38
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeWollny4wins
AwaySzotek6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderSzotek leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeWollny80%4 of 5
AwaySzotek100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Wollny5Szotek5n = 10split evenly
S2Wollny4Szotek6n = 10Szotek took 6 of 10
S3Wollny6Szotek4n = 10Wollny took 6 of 10
S4Wollny3Szotek5n = 8Szotek took 5 of 8
S5Wollny1Szotek3n = 4Szotek took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricWollnySzotekW − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.339.4+0.9per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricWollnySzotekBasisWin rate · lifetime125 / 237 vs 149 / 34252.7%43.6%125 / 237 vs 149 / 342Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.036.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
WollnyWollny 1.53/Szotek 2.38
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
61.2%
Wollny · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Szotek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJun 16 · 09:30M. Wollny43111110113D. Szotek26341271
LJun 16 · 06:30M. Wollny31651191D. Szotek3911116113
WJun 14 · 18:30M. Wollny4211119113D. Szotek34991151
LMay 4 · 20:58M. Wollny4811911892D. Szotek45611611113
WMay 4 · 20:30M. Wollny4111811113D. Szotek35811791
LApr 29 · 15:30M. Wollny248970D. Szotek331111113
LNov 7 · 22:30M. Wollny4361111692D. Szotek50118911113
LNov 7 · 21:30M. Wollny47611111272D. Szotek47116514113
WSep 16 · 21:06M. Wollny591381116113D. Szotek51111161852
LSep 16 · 20:00M. Wollny2569100D. Szotek341111123
M. Wollny10
LSep 30 · 20:58R. Hudeczek2.38411511123M. Wollny1.53117118102LSep 30 · 20:00M. Wollny1.529580R. Hudeczek2.351111113LSep 30 · 19:30M. Chalupa3.7511115113M. Wollny1.25481171LSep 3 · 21:00V. Burdik2.00111411113M. Wollny1.73516781LSep 3 · 20:00M. Wollny2.20661181M. Kratochvil1.6111118113LSep 3 · 19:30R. Urbaniec2.6311911113M. Wollny1.44911781LSep 3 · 18:00M. Wollny1.7361111852V. Burdik2.00119711113WSep 1 · 21:28M. Wollny1.731011911113V. Burdik2.0012711882WSep 1 · 20:00M. Wollny1.6111118113R. Urbaniec2.20941171WSep 1 · 19:30L. Kern2.50115981M. Wollny1.5091111113
D. Szotek10
WSep 30 · 20:30D. Szotek2.10111311113M. Chalupa1.67515951WSep 30 · 19:00D. Szotek2.204101112113R. Hudeczek1.61111261062WSep 28 · 21:30D. Szotek1.67111112113M. Holub2.109131081WSep 28 · 20:00M. Chalupa1.44911531D. Szotek2.6311911113WSep 28 · 19:00M. Holub2.001316681D. Szotek1.73151411113WSep 28 · 18:30D. Szotek2.251113115123T. Kypr1.57715811102LSep 27 · 16:59D. Szotek1.91881141T. Kypr1.8011119113WSep 27 · 16:00D. Szotek2.0071111113T. Kypr1.73119781LSep 27 · 15:30D. Unzeitig2.501191011113D. Szotek1.5071112752LSep 27 · 14:00D. Szotek1.73411761Z. Pagac2.0011911113
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