TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Ondrej Kadavy vs David Bochnak 3-2 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 28Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
117116311511112
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:58 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOndrej Kadavy to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOndrej Kadavy above · David Bochnak below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 3-11
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 11-2
Point 78 set 5, 11-2 — our read held Ondrej Kadavy at 54.0%
78 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Kadavy 68–39 David Bochnak David Bochnak has won 39 of their 107 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Bochnak beat Kadavy 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:58What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Kadavy
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
68-39 in 107
Kadavy
Correct
gap of 29 in 107, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kadavy 1758 vs Bochnak 1793
Bochnak
Wrong
both rated, 35 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kadavy 60% vs Bochnak 80%
Bochnak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kadavy 60% vs Bochnak 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kadavy +2 · Bochnak +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kadavy) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Bochnak form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKadavy 1.80 / Bochnak 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kadavy)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13211207
Kadavy1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite63% won 77 of 122
Up 2–0, closes it98% 41 of 42
Up 1–0, closes it86% 57 of 66
Bochnak1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog41% won 20 of 49
Down 0–1, comes back18% 4 of 22
Down 0–2, comes back9% 1 of 11
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKadavy6wins
AwayBochnak4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKadavy leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKadavy100%3 of 3
AwayBochnak57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kadavy3Bochnak7n = 10Bochnak took 7 of 10
S2Kadavy4Bochnak6n = 10Bochnak took 6 of 10
S3Kadavy8Bochnak2n = 10Kadavy took 8 of 10
S4Kadavy6Bochnak2n = 8Kadavy took 6 of 8
S5Kadavy1Bochnak2n = 3Bochnak took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKadavyBochnakK − BBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match38.535.1+3.4per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKadavyBochnakBasisWin rate · lifetime191 / 330 vs 361 / 58657.9%61.6%191 / 330 vs 361 / 586Avg sets wonper match2.22.3per matchAvg pointsper match38.138.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KadavyKadavy 1.80/Bochnak 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kadavy · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kadavy won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 28 · 10:55O. Kadavy4041111952D. Bochnak47116811113
LSep 24 · 18:08O. Kadavy4586111192D. Bochnak39111133113
WSep 24 · 16:25O. Kadavy4211911113D. Bochnak33811591
LSep 17 · 15:55O. Kadavy199370D. Bochnak331111113
LSep 14 · 18:55O. Kadavy2110740D. Bochnak341211113
WSep 4 · 18:55O. Kadavy4111811113D. Bochnak24611611
WSep 1 · 18:08O. Kadavy4181111113D. Bochnak36119791
WSep 1 · 16:55O. Kadavy4391111123D. Bochnak381189101
WJul 14 · 16:25O. Kadavy512111113143D. Bochnak49115615122
WJul 12 · 14:55O. Kadavy4211911113D. Bochnak18411031
O. Kadavy10
WSep 28 · 13:25M. Cerny2.756490O. Kadavy1.401111113WSep 28 · 12:25O. Kadavy1.57111110113P. Vanek2.25621261LSep 28 · 10:55D. Bochnak2.10116811113O. Kadavy1.6741111952WSep 27 · 14:17F. Strejc2.257990O. Kadavy1.571111113LSep 27 · 12:55M. Cerny3.0011811113O. Kadavy1.36811841LSep 27 · 12:25V. Benak1.8011611143O. Kadavy1.919111121WSep 27 · 11:25O. Kadavy1.91115411123F. Strejc1.80711117102WSep 25 · 10:29O. Kadavy1.36158911113M. Cerny3.00131111502LSep 25 · 09:25D. Vesecky2.0011911113O. Kadavy1.73811491WSep 25 · 08:25O. Kadavy1.3311127113M. Cerny3.256101181
D. Bochnak10
WSep 28 · 12:55D. Bochnak1.571111123P. Vanek2.2548100LSep 28 · 11:55D. Bochnak1.8311119792M. Cerny1.83761111113WSep 28 · 10:55D. Bochnak2.10116811113O. Kadavy1.6741111952WSep 24 · 18:08O. Kadavy1.6186111192D. Bochnak2.20111133113WSep 24 · 16:55M. Cerny1.83791171D. Bochnak1.8311111113LSep 24 · 16:25O. Kadavy1.6111911113D. Bochnak2.20811591WSep 24 · 15:25D. Bochnak1.73611126113T. Flicek2.00117101152LSep 23 · 18:05D. Bochnak1.36118981L. Soucek3.0041111113LSep 23 · 16:55D. Vesecky2.3891211113D. Bochnak1.531110391WSep 23 · 16:25M. Cerny1.9111951182D. Bochnak1.80711118113
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