TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Jakub Lysek vs Jan Oleksik 3-1 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 27Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
12101012114118––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:02 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJan Oleksik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJakub Lysek above · Jan Oleksik below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 78 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Jan Oleksik at 54.0%
78 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Lysek 2–2 Jan Oleksik Dead even across their 4 meetings.
Last 4 · 2–2Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:02What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Oleksik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-2 in 4
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lysek 1303 vs Oleksik 1370
Oleksik
Wrong
both rated, 67 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lysek 60% vs Oleksik 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lysek 40% vs Oleksik 70%
Oleksik
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Lysek -1 · Oleksik -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Oleksik)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLysek 2.00 / Oleksik 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Oleksik)+0.3pp
TT Cup · #13207215
Lysek2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog47% won 46 of 98
Down 0–1, comes back29% 17 of 58
Down 0–2, comes back11% 3 of 28
Oleksik1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite24% won 5 of 21
Up 1–0, closes it60% 3 of 5
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeLysek2wins
AwayOleksik2wins
2 of 4 to a deciderLevel at 2–2, and 2 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLysek33.3%1 of 3
AwayOleksikn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lysek3Oleksik1n = 4Lysek took 3 of 4
S2Lysek1Oleksik3n = 4Oleksik took 3 of 4
S3Lysek1Oleksik3n = 4Oleksik took 3 of 4
S4Lysek3Oleksik1n = 4Lysek took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricLysekOleksikL − OBasisWins220in 4 meetingsFirst set31+2of 4Avg pointsper match38.243.0−4.8per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLysekOleksikBasisWin rate · lifetime147 / 327 vs 42 / 8345%50.6%147 / 327 vs 42 / 83Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.039.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OleksikLysek 2.00/Oleksik 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Oleksik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Lysek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LJun 7 · 19:10J. Lysek3911551262J. Oleksik518111110113
LMay 17 · 20:10J. Lysek27116641J. Oleksik3851111113
WDec 21 · 15:40J. Lysek4051212113J. Oleksik3811101071
WDec 14 · 15:10J. Lysek47116811113J. Oleksik4581111872
J. Lysek10
LSep 27 · 17:40L. Jr1.731111113J. Lysek2.005880WSep 25 · 17:10L. Jr1.6189100J. Lysek2.201111123WSep 25 · 16:10P. Sturma1.8310149101J. Lysek1.83121211123WSep 25 · 15:10J. Lysek1.9111118113F. Mandrysz1.80461161LSep 25 · 13:40L. Jr1.5711146113J. Lysek2.255121191LSep 24 · 16:45L. Zustina1.501111113J. Lysek2.505770LSep 24 · 16:15L. Zustina1.911111113J. Lysek1.806740WSep 24 · 15:15J. Lysek1.80116118113P. Sturma1.9171191182LSep 24 · 13:45M. Dolezal2.001511113J. Lysek1.7313630LJul 22 · 08:43J. Lysek1.834360J. Sevecek1.831111113
J. Oleksik10
LSep 27 · 18:10J. Oleksik1.5333121122M. Dolezal2.381111109113LSep 13 · 21:23J. Oleksik1.859112101L. Jr1.8511911123WSep 13 · 20:15J. Oleksik2.10851211113J. Matus1.67111110762WSep 13 · 18:45M. Dolezal1.835620J. Oleksik1.831111113WSep 13 · 18:15L. Jr1.83111111592J. Oleksik1.83813911113LSep 6 · 21:20J. Oleksik1.5771191272M. Dolezal2.251171110113WSep 6 · 20:15M. Dolezal2.0087111132J. Oleksik1.73111174113WSep 6 · 19:15J. Oleksik2.00111169113R. Jancak1.7356111152WSep 6 · 17:45L. Jr1.8379111172J. Oleksik1.83111176113WAug 30 · 21:15M. Dolezal1.733380J. Oleksik2.001111113
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