TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Marek Dlask vs Michal Kolbusovsky 2-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 24Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
911311118119911
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:30 and never touched — 70.4% is still 70.4%
Graded at full timeMarek Dlask to win
70.4%
70.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMarek Dlask above · Michal Kolbusovsky below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 93 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Marek Dlask at 70.4%
93 points played in total.
H2H Marek Dlask 5–1 Michal Kolbusovsky Michal Kolbusovsky has won 1 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:30What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Dlask
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-1 in 6
Dlask
Wrong
gap of 4 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dlask 1346 vs Kolbusovsky 1216
Dlask
Wrong
both rated, 129 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dlask 40% vs Kolbusovsky 20%
Dlask
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dlask 40% vs Kolbusovsky 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Dlask -2 · Kolbusovsky -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% — Strong (leans Dlask)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolbusovsky form (20%) is below what odds imply (33%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDlask 1.36 / Kolbusovsky 3.00
Signal prob.70% / 30%
Edge (Dlask)+1.6pp
TT Cup · #13188632
Dlask1.36
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite58% won 36 of 62
Up 2–0, closes it89% 16 of 18
Up 1–0, closes it79% 26 of 33
Kolbusovsky3.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog34% won 54 of 161
Down 0–1, comes back18% 17 of 93
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 54
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeDlask5wins
AwayKolbusovsky1wins
3 of 6 to a deciderDlask leads 5–1, and 3 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDlask75%3 of 4
AwayKolbusovskyn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dlask4Kolbusovsky2n = 6Dlask took 4 of 6
S2Dlask4Kolbusovsky2n = 6Dlask took 4 of 6
S3Dlask3Kolbusovsky3n = 6split evenly
S4Dlask4Kolbusovsky1n = 5Dlask took 4 of 5
S5Dlask2Kolbusovsky1n = 3Dlask took 2 of 3
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home233%
3–2Decider, home233%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricDlaskKolbusovskyD − KBasisWins51+4in 6 meetingsFirst set42+2of 6Avg pointsper match41.538.3+3.2per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDlaskKolbusovskyBasisWin rate · lifetime143 / 305 vs 208 / 46546.9%44.7%143 / 305 vs 208 / 465Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.838.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DlaskDlask 1.36/Kolbusovsky 3.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
70.4%
Dlask · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kolbusovsky won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WSep 17 · 19:50M. Dlask331111113M. Kolbusovsky168260
LJul 9 · 18:20M. Dlask4311761182M. Kolbusovsky49711119113
WJun 24 · 20:55M. Dlask4111811113M. Kolbusovsky33911941
WFeb 16 · 22:30M. Dlask4391111123M. Kolbusovsky331175101
WFeb 16 · 20:20M. Dlask47151137113M. Kolbusovsky50139111162
WFeb 3 · 20:20M. Dlask42511411113M. Kolbusovsky4911911992
M. Dlask10
LSep 24 · 21:28M. Kolbusovsky2.5011118113M. Dlask1.50481191LSep 24 · 19:20M. Dlask1.83711991M. Nemec1.8311911113LSep 24 · 18:20M. Dlask2.2065130R. Zeman1.611111153WSep 23 · 21:28M. Nemec1.831110811112M. Dlask1.83712115133WSep 23 · 20:20M. Dlask1.73520113113M. Nemec2.00111891192LSep 23 · 19:20M. Dlask2.635470Z. Vyskocil1.441111113LSep 23 · 18:20M. Dlask3.25841171L. Vich1.3311119113LSep 17 · 21:53M. Dlask1.6799110M. Nemec2.101111133LSep 17 · 20:50M. Nemec2.6313177143M. Dlask1.44111511121WSep 17 · 19:50M. Dlask1.501111113M. Kolbusovsky2.508260
M. Kolbusovsky10
WSep 24 · 21:28M. Kolbusovsky2.5011118113M. Dlask1.50481191LSep 24 · 19:50R. Zeman1.101112113M. Kolbusovsky6.5071070LSep 24 · 18:50M. Kolbusovsky2.206990M. Nemec1.611111113WSep 21 · 21:25Z. Vyskocil1.4044120M. Kolbusovsky2.701111143LSep 21 · 20:20J. Mach1.536111411113M. Kolbusovsky2.3811816742LSep 21 · 19:50R. Zeman1.111111113M. Kolbusovsky6.004870LSep 21 · 18:50M. Kolbusovsky2.381091171Z. Vyskocil1.5312114113LSep 21 · 14:00T. Jr1.20111111113M. Kolbusovsky3.80881391WSep 21 · 12:20S. Matousch1.4411118582M. Kolbusovsky2.63891111113LSep 17 · 19:50M. Dlask1.501111113M. Kolbusovsky2.508260
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