TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Jiri Vanous vs Tomas Ogrocki 0-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 24Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
511511911––––
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:20 and never touched — 59.8% is still 59.8%
Graded at full timeTomas Ogrocki to win
59.8%
59.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJiri Vanous above · Tomas Ogrocki below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 52 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Tomas Ogrocki at 59.8%
52 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Vanous 10–21 Tomas Ogrocki Jiri Vanous has won 10 of their 31 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:20What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Ogrocki
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-21 in 31
Ogrocki
Correct
gap of 11 in 31, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vanous 1292 vs Ogrocki 1459
Ogrocki
Correct
both rated, 167 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vanous 60% vs Ogrocki 80%
Ogrocki
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vanous 30% vs Ogrocki 80%
Ogrocki
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vanous +1 · Ogrocki +3
Ogrocki
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Ogrocki)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ogrocki form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVanous 2.10 / Ogrocki 1.67
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Ogrocki)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13188122
Vanous2.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog41% won 46 of 113
Down 0–1, comes back21% 12 of 58
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 36
Ogrocki1.67
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite60% won 65 of 108
Up 2–0, closes it92% 33 of 36
Up 1–0, closes it73% 47 of 64
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVanous5wins
AwayOgrocki5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVanous100%3 of 3
AwayOgrocki71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vanous3Ogrocki7n = 10Ogrocki took 7 of 10
S2Vanous7Ogrocki3n = 10Vanous took 7 of 10
S3Vanous4Ogrocki6n = 10Ogrocki took 6 of 10
S4Vanous6Ogrocki4n = 10Vanous took 6 of 10
S5Vanous2Ogrocki2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricVanousOgrockiV − OBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match42.441.7+0.7per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVanousOgrockiBasisWin rate · lifetime136 / 312 vs 237 / 49743.6%47.7%136 / 312 vs 237 / 497Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.137.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OgrockiVanous 2.10/Ogrocki 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.8%
Ogrocki · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Ogrocki won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 22 · 19:40J. Vanous4314117113T. Ogrocki371261181
LSep 20 · 19:40J. Vanous4291111472T. Ogrocki49117911113
LSep 10 · 20:44J. Vanous33851191T. Ogrocki3811115113
WSep 10 · 20:10J. Vanous44831111113T. Ogrocki3911114942
WAug 5 · 20:43J. Vanous48151111113T. Ogrocki401351391
LAug 5 · 20:10J. Vanous356111081T. Ogrocki3911512113
LJul 24 · 20:50J. Vanous357135101T. Ogrocki45111111123
WJul 24 · 19:15J. Vanous6011121115113T. Ogrocki53614131372
WJul 16 · 20:33J. Vanous4291111113T. Ogrocki33118861
LJul 16 · 19:10J. Vanous4251171182T. Ogrocki44113118113
J. Vanous10
WSep 24 · 20:40J. Vanous1.53111234113R. Benesz2.38610111112WSep 24 · 18:40J. Vanous1.731111113R. Benesz2.005680LSep 24 · 17:40J. Vanous1.834680P. Jokiel1.831111113LSep 22 · 20:45J. Vanous1.578430R. Benesz2.251111113WSep 22 · 19:40J. Vanous2.0014117113T. Ogrocki1.731261181WSep 22 · 18:40J. Vanous1.731211113R. Benesz2.0010470LSep 22 · 17:40J. Vanous1.734670P. Jokiel2.001111113LSep 20 · 20:45P. Jokiel2.25611115113J. Vanous1.5711791152LSep 20 · 19:40J. Vanous1.9191111472T. Ogrocki1.80117911113LSep 20 · 18:40J. Vanous1.50115571P. Jokiel2.5031111113
T. Ogrocki10
LSep 25 · 20:40M. Henzel3.40991111113T. Ogrocki1.3011117182WSep 25 · 20:15O. Vaclahovsky2.259590T. Ogrocki1.571111113LSep 25 · 19:15T. Ogrocki1.73641181J. Przybyla2.0011116113LSep 25 · 17:45M. Henzel2.0011118113T. Ogrocki1.73891171WSep 25 · 13:20O. Skvor1.619111051T. Ogrocki2.2011612113LSep 25 · 12:15M. Janik1.8315311113T. Ogrocki1.831311781LSep 25 · 11:15T. Ogrocki2.00121191182O. Skvor1.731013118113WSep 25 · 09:45A. Drozd1.611221071T. Ogrocki2.20101112113LSep 22 · 19:40J. Vanous2.0014117113T. Ogrocki1.731261181WSep 20 · 19:40J. Vanous1.9191111472T. Ogrocki1.80117911113
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