TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Adrian Walek vs David Heczko 1-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 23Finished
Adrian Walek
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
91110121210811––
David Heczko
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:59 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDavid Heczko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAdrian Walek above · David Heczko below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 83 set 4, 8-11 — our read held David Heczko at 54.0%
83 points played in total.
H2H Adrian Walek 20–22 David Heczko Adrian Walek has won 20 of their 42 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 1h before this match
Heczko beat Walek 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:59What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Heczko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
20-22 in 42
Heczko
Correct
gap of 2 in 42, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Walek 1559 vs Heczko 1595
Heczko
Correct
both rated, 35 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Walek 40% vs Heczko 60%
Heczko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Walek 40% vs Heczko 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Walek -2 · Heczko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Heczko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Walek form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsWalek 1.83 / Heczko 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Heczko)+4.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13184922
Walek1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Heczko1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeWalek6wins
AwayHeczko4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderWalek leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeWalek75%3 of 4
AwayHeczko50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Walek4Heczko6n = 10Heczko took 6 of 10
S2Walek7Heczko3n = 10Walek took 7 of 10
S3Walek7Heczko3n = 10Walek took 7 of 10
S4Walek4Heczko6n = 10Heczko took 6 of 10
S5Walek2Heczko2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricWalekHeczkoW − HBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match43.342.1+1.2per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricWalekHeczkoBasisWin rate · lifetime227 / 452 vs 258 / 47050.2%54.9%227 / 452 vs 258 / 470Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.638.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HeczkoWalek 1.83/Heczko 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Heczko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Heczko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 23 · 16:00A. Walek4291111742D. Heczko46115811113
LSep 12 · 16:30A. Walek3711134272D. Heczko484111111113
WSep 8 · 14:30A. Walek56918117113D. Heczko52111661182
WSep 5 · 10:30A. Walek4011117113D. Heczko31871151
WSep 5 · 07:00A. Walek46121112113D. Heczko391481071
WSep 2 · 14:00A. Walek44111111113D. Heczko32135591
WAug 27 · 06:30A. Walek46111113113D. Heczko397131181
LAug 25 · 08:00A. Walek399111181D. Heczko4311138113
WAug 24 · 09:28A. Walek50119116133D. Heczko49711911112
LAug 24 · 08:00A. Walek331011751D. Heczko4212811113
A. Walek10
LSep 23 · 16:00A. Walek1.6791111742D. Heczko2.10115811113LSep 23 · 15:30J. Levicky2.20461111123A. Walek1.61111189102WSep 23 · 14:00A. Walek2.201111113T. Petrek1.619890LSep 19 · 09:30A. Walek1.90111171192J. Simecek1.80913117113WSep 19 · 08:30A. Walek2.0011114113S. Byrtus1.73981141WSep 19 · 07:00A. Walek2.0061111113D. Langer1.73117981LSep 19 · 06:00J. Simecek1.8011812113A. Walek1.919111071WSep 15 · 17:00D. Machander1.859101191A. Walek1.8511124113LSep 15 · 16:30L. Martinak1.7361111113A. Walek2.00116791LSep 15 · 15:30A. Walek2.00118851F. Laburda1.7331111113
D. Heczko10
WSep 23 · 16:00A. Walek1.6791111742D. Heczko2.10115811113LSep 23 · 15:00T. Petrek1.611115117153D. Heczko2.20517911132LSep 23 · 14:30D. Heczko2.25611671J. Levicky1.5711511113WSep 18 · 08:58R. Skacelik1.7321270D. Heczko2.001114113WSep 18 · 08:00R. Skacelik1.6710114131D. Heczko2.1012611153LSep 18 · 07:00S. Byrtus1.9111711143D. Heczko1.806118121LSep 18 · 06:30D. Heczko2.10112981J. Levicky1.6761111113LSep 12 · 21:06D. Heczko2.20811761D. Langer1.6111811113LSep 12 · 20:30R. Skacelik1.671291111113D. Heczko2.10101131392LSep 12 · 19:30D. Heczko2.389118111D. Langer1.5311611133
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