TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleh Maksymkiv vs Vasil Salivonchyk 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
2115111113––––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:19 and never touched: 57.0% is still 57.0%
Graded at full timeOleh Maksymkiv to win
57.0%
57.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOleh Maksymkiv above · Vasil Salivonchyk below
Set 1 · 2-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-13
Point 53 set 3, 11-13 · our read held Oleh Maksymkiv at 57.0%
53 points played in total.
H2H Oleh Maksymkiv 37–22 Vasil Salivonchyk Vasil Salivonchyk has won 22 of their 59 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:1957.0%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 3.0pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Maksymkiv
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
37-22 in 59
Maksymkiv
Wrong
gap of 15 in 59, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Maksymkiv 1113 vs Salivonchyk 1130
Salivonchyk
Correct
both rated, 17 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Maksymkiv 20% vs Salivonchyk 40%
Salivonchyk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Maksymkiv 20% vs Salivonchyk 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Maksymkiv +1 · Salivonchyk -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans Maksymkiv) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Maksymkiv form (20%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMaksymkiv 1.666 / Salivonchyk 2.10
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Maksymkiv)-3.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13270886
Maksymkiv1.67
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite67% won 121 of 180
Up 2–0, closes it91% 61 of 67
Up 1–0, closes it81% 85 of 105
Salivonchyk2.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog39% won 35 of 90
Down 0–1, comes back26% 13 of 51
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 27
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMaksymkiv6wins
AwaySalivonchyk4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderMaksymkiv leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMaksymkiv75%3 of 4
AwaySalivonchyk50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Maksymkiv4Salivonchyk6n = 10Salivonchyk took 6 of 10
S2Maksymkiv5Salivonchyk5n = 10split evenly
S3Maksymkiv4Salivonchyk6n = 10Salivonchyk took 6 of 10
S4Maksymkiv5Salivonchyk3n = 8Maksymkiv took 5 of 8
S5Maksymkiv3Salivonchyk1n = 4Maksymkiv took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMaksymkivSalivonchykM − SBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match39.843.5−3.7per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMaksymkivSalivonchykBasisWin rate · lifetime408 / 793 vs 318 / 60351.5%52.7%408 / 793 vs 318 / 603Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.938.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MaksymkivMaksymkiv 1.67/Salivonchyk 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57%
Maksymkiv · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Salivonchyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 10 · 06:25O. Maksymkiv1825110V. Salivonchyk351111133
LOct 5 · 05:55O. Maksymkiv132560V. Salivonchyk331111113
WOct 4 · 13:25O. Maksymkiv43111110113V. Salivonchyk35591291
WOct 1 · 04:55O. Maksymkiv4211119113V. Salivonchyk38991191
WSep 20 · 16:25O. Maksymkiv4211119113V. Salivonchyk30741181
LSep 7 · 10:55O. Maksymkiv30711481V. Salivonchyk4211911113
WSep 6 · 15:55O. Maksymkiv577171111113V. Salivonchyk5311196892
LAug 31 · 04:25O. Maksymkiv40115111122V. Salivonchyk53911811143
WAug 30 · 16:55O. Maksymkiv48481111143V. Salivonchyk51111198122
WAug 23 · 16:25O. Maksymkiv656181218113V. Salivonchyk651116102082
O. Maksymkiv10
LOct 10 · 07:25M. Treschetka1.44111112113O. Maksymkiv2.638131041WOct 10 · 05:25A. Nikolenko2.5012113642O. Maksymkiv1.501071111113LOct 8 · 10:25O. Maksymkiv3.508630O. Melnik1.281111113LOct 8 · 08:55O. Maksymkiv1.301011341O. Maslovskyi3.4012611113LOct 8 · 07:25O. Maksymkiv2.20118251V. Hel1.6191111113LOct 8 · 05:55O. Maksymkiv1.738560M. Dunas2.001111113LOct 8 · 04:25O. Maksymkiv2.759720S. Kryvoshyi1.401111113LOct 7 · 18:25O. Maksymkiv1.80671151V. Hel1.9111119113LOct 7 · 16:25O. Maslovskyi4.001111113O. Maksymkiv1.228630WOct 7 · 15:25O. Maksymkiv1.801111113M. Dunas1.919990
V. Salivonchyk10
LOct 10 · 04:25M. Treschetka2.2511116113V. Salivonchyk1.57451141WOct 9 · 18:25M. Treschetka2.25311581V. Salivonchyk1.5711911113LOct 9 · 17:25P. Chyzh3.40115114123V. Salivonchyk1.30711711102WOct 9 · 15:55A. Nikolenko2.0081111882V. Salivonchyk1.73118711113LOct 9 · 13:55I. Fokin2.7511511113V. Salivonchyk1.40811791LOct 9 · 11:55H. Oliynyk1.5711115113V. Salivonchyk2.25691151LOct 5 · 10:25V. Salivonchyk2.1027120H. Oliynyk1.671111143LOct 5 · 08:55V. Salivonchyk1.5751140O. Maslovskyi2.251113113LOct 5 · 07:25V. Salivonchyk3.009560O. Melnik1.361111113WOct 5 · 05:55V. Salivonchyk2.101111113O. Maksymkiv1.672560
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