TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleh Maksymkiv vs Valerii Hel 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
119811211511––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:18 and never touched: 57.7% is still 57.7%
Graded at full timeValerii Hel to win
57.7%
57.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingOleh Maksymkiv above · Valerii Hel below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 2-11
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 68 set 4, 5-11 · our read held Valerii Hel at 57.7%
68 points played in total.
H2H Oleh Maksymkiv 12–9 Valerii Hel Valerii Hel has won 9 of their 21 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:1857.7%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 4.2pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Hel
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
12-9 in 21
Maksymkiv
Wrong
gap of 3 in 21, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Maksymkiv 1147 vs Hel 1214
Hel
Correct
both rated, 67 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Maksymkiv 20% vs Hel 40%
Hel
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Maksymkiv 30% vs Hel 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Maksymkiv -4 · Hel -2
Maksymkiv
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% · Slight lean (leans Hel) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hel form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMaksymkiv 2.20 / Hel 1.615
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Hel)-4.2pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13261332
Maksymkiv2.20
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog35% won 51 of 147
Down 0–1, comes back16% 14 of 86
Down 0–2, comes back10% 5 of 52
Hel1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite53% won 50 of 95
Up 2–0, closes it88% 29 of 33
Up 1–0, closes it69% 38 of 55
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMaksymkiv5wins
AwayHel5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMaksymkiv60%3 of 5
AwayHel60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Maksymkiv5Hel5n = 10split evenly
S2Maksymkiv3Hel7n = 10Hel took 7 of 10
S3Maksymkiv6Hel4n = 10Maksymkiv took 6 of 10
S4Maksymkiv5Hel4n = 9Maksymkiv took 5 of 9
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMaksymkivHelM − HBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match35.839.7−3.9per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMaksymkivHelBasisWin rate · lifetime407 / 788 vs 139 / 26251.7%53.1%407 / 788 vs 139 / 262Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.037.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
HelMaksymkiv 2.20/Hel 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.7%
Hel · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Hel won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 8 · 07:25O. Maksymkiv26118251V. Hel4291111113
LOct 7 · 18:25O. Maksymkiv29671151V. Hel4211119113
LOct 2 · 17:25O. Maksymkiv2051050V. Hel341112113
WSep 23 · 07:55O. Maksymkiv4213711113V. Hel371111691
LSep 17 · 18:25O. Maksymkiv34891161V. Hel4211119113
WSep 16 · 11:25O. Maksymkiv3911125113V. Hel368101171
WSep 15 · 11:55O. Maksymkiv46471311113V. Hel44111111832
LJul 15 · 04:25O. Maksymkiv44111011842V. Hel50712911113
WJul 9 · 05:55O. Maksymkiv4411138123V. Hel4191111101
WJun 24 · 06:25O. Maksymkiv3411111113V. Hel29114681
O. Maksymkiv10
LOct 8 · 05:55O. Maksymkiv1.738560M. Dunas2.001111113LOct 8 · 04:25O. Maksymkiv2.759720S. Kryvoshyi1.401111113LOct 7 · 18:25O. Maksymkiv1.80671151V. Hel1.9111119113LOct 7 · 16:25O. Maslovskyi4.001111113O. Maksymkiv1.228630WOct 7 · 15:25O. Maksymkiv1.801111113M. Dunas1.919990LOct 7 · 14:25S. Kryvoshyi1.4481211113O. Maksymkiv2.631110581LOct 7 · 12:55O. Maksymkiv3.2511680O. Melnik1.331311113LOct 5 · 11:25O. Melnik1.3611112113O. Maksymkiv3.00481191WOct 5 · 09:55O. Maksymkiv1.501011117113V. Vasyliev2.5012731182WOct 5 · 07:55O. Maslovskyi3.50121060O. Maksymkiv1.281412113
V. Hel10
LOct 8 · 06:25V. Hel1.801121291S. Kryvoshyi1.9181114113LOct 8 · 05:25O. Maslovskyi3.0012114113V. Hel1.361091161WOct 7 · 18:25O. Maksymkiv1.80671151V. Hel1.9111119113LOct 7 · 17:25M. Dunas2.2581312113V. Hel1.5711111061WOct 7 · 15:55S. Kryvoshyi1.8057100V. Hel1.911111123LOct 7 · 13:55O. Melnik2.0016118113V. Hel1.731451131WOct 7 · 11:55O. Maslovskyi2.757730V. Hel1.401111113WOct 2 · 17:25O. Maksymkiv1.5751050V. Hel2.251112113LOct 2 · 15:55H. Oliynyk1.801311123V. Hel1.91118100LOct 2 · 13:55M. Dunas2.20511114113V. Hel1.6111881192
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