TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleksandr Maslovskyi vs Oleh Maksymkiv 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 7Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
118116113––––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:14 and never touched: 80.1% is still 80.1%
Graded at full timeOleh Maksymkiv to win
80.1%
80.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOleksandr Maslovskyi above · Oleh Maksymkiv below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-3
Point 50 set 3, 11-3 · our read held Oleh Maksymkiv at 80.1%
50 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Maslovskyi 7–60 Oleh Maksymkiv Oleksandr Maslovskyi has won 7 of their 67 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:1480.1%Our read81.8%to break even at 1.222
short by 1.7pp81.8% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.222 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.22 (77%)
Maksymkiv
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
7-60 in 67
Maksymkiv
Wrong
gap of 53 in 67, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Maslovskyi 1201 vs Maksymkiv 1203
Maksymkiv
Wrong
both rated, 2 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Maslovskyi 40% vs Maksymkiv 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Maslovskyi 50% vs Maksymkiv 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Maslovskyi +1 · Maksymkiv +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 80% · Strong (leans Maksymkiv) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Maksymkiv form (40%) is below what odds imply (82%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMaslovskyi 4.00 / Maksymkiv 1.222
Signal prob.20% / 80%
Edge (Maksymkiv)-1.7pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13255889
Maslovskyi4.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog32% won 74 of 231
Down 0–1, comes back21% 33 of 160
Down 0–2, comes back7% 7 of 94
Maksymkiv1.22
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite69% won 125 of 181
Up 2–0, closes it90% 62 of 69
Up 1–0, closes it81% 87 of 108
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMaslovskyi1wins
AwayMaksymkiv9wins
4 of 10 to a deciderMaksymkiv leads 9–1, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMaslovskyin = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayMaksymkiv88.9%8 of 9
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Maslovskyi1Maksymkiv9n = 10Maksymkiv took 9 of 10
S2Maslovskyi1Maksymkiv9n = 10Maksymkiv took 9 of 10
S3Maslovskyi5Maksymkiv5n = 10split evenly
S4Maslovskyi3Maksymkiv3n = 6split evenly
S5Maslovskyi1Maksymkiv3n = 4Maksymkiv took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricMaslovskyiMaksymkivMaslovskyi − MaksymkivBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set19−8of 10Avg pointsper match37.243.3−6.1per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMaslovskyiMaksymkivBasisWin rate · lifetime441 / 878 vs 407 / 78350.2%52%441 / 878 vs 407 / 783Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.637.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MaksymkivMaslovskyi 4.00/Maksymkiv 1.22
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
80.1%
Maksymkiv · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Maslovskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 5 · 07:55O. Maslovskyi28121060O. Maksymkiv371412113
WOct 4 · 12:25O. Maslovskyi48851113113O. Maksymkiv44111181132
LOct 2 · 13:25O. Maslovskyi4294111172O. Maksymkiv48111196113
LOct 1 · 11:25O. Maslovskyi259790O. Maksymkiv331111113
LSep 30 · 14:55O. Maslovskyi3049170O. Maksymkiv411111193
LSep 25 · 07:55O. Maslovskyi411371381O. Maksymkiv48151111113
LSep 20 · 14:28O. Maslovskyi4178121132O. Maksymkiv521111109113
LSep 3 · 07:55O. Maslovskyi4491111672O. Maksymkiv45116611113
LAug 31 · 10:55O. Maslovskyi39149881O. Maksymkiv45121111113
LAug 30 · 14:55O. Maslovskyi34119140O. Maksymkiv401311163
O. Maslovskyi10
LOct 7 · 17:55O. Maslovskyi3.2574111142S. Kryvoshyi1.33111174113WOct 7 · 14:55O. Maslovskyi1.73111011123O. Melnik2.007128101LOct 7 · 13:25O. Maslovskyi3.2512951142M. Dunas1.331011118113LOct 7 · 11:55O. Maslovskyi2.757730V. Hel1.401111113LOct 5 · 10:55O. Maslovskyi1.53661171V. Vasyliev2.3811113113WOct 5 · 08:55V. Salivonchyk1.5751140O. Maslovskyi2.251113113LOct 5 · 07:55O. Maslovskyi3.50121060O. Maksymkiv1.281412113WOct 5 · 06:55H. Oliynyk1.733980O. Maslovskyi2.001111113LOct 5 · 05:25O. Maslovskyi1.7311116952O. Melnik2.00381111113WOct 4 · 17:55V. Salivonchyk1.5311116462O. Maslovskyi2.38761111113
O. Maksymkiv10
LOct 7 · 18:25O. Maksymkiv1.80671151V. Hel1.9111119113WOct 7 · 15:25O. Maksymkiv1.801111113M. Dunas1.919990LOct 7 · 14:25S. Kryvoshyi1.4481211113O. Maksymkiv2.631110581LOct 7 · 12:55O. Maksymkiv3.2511680O. Melnik1.331311113LOct 5 · 11:25O. Melnik1.3611112113O. Maksymkiv3.00481191WOct 5 · 09:55O. Maksymkiv1.501011117113V. Vasyliev2.5012731182WOct 5 · 07:55O. Maslovskyi3.50121060O. Maksymkiv1.281412113LOct 5 · 05:55V. Salivonchyk2.101111113O. Maksymkiv1.672560LOct 5 · 04:55H. Oliynyk1.831111113O. Maksymkiv1.838330LOct 4 · 18:55O. Melnik1.441111113O. Maksymkiv2.636890
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