TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Stepan Rejent vs Lukas Veigl 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
711114711119411
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:40 and never touched: 62.1% is still 62.1%
Graded at full timeLukas Veigl to win
62.1%
62.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingStepan Rejent above · Lukas Veigl below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 4-11
Point 86 set 5, 4-11 · our read held Lukas Veigl at 62.1%
86 points played in total.
H2H Stepan Rejent 33–49 Lukas Veigl Stepan Rejent has won 33 of their 82 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:4062.1%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 1.6pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Veigl
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
33-49 in 82
Veigl
Correct
gap of 16 in 82, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rejent 1624 vs Veigl 1785
Veigl
Correct
both rated, 161 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rejent 40% vs Veigl 100%
Veigl
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rejent 50% vs Veigl 70%
Veigl
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Rejent +1 · Veigl +5
Veigl
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% · Clear lean (leans Veigl) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Veigl form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRejent 2.25 / Veigl 1.571
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Veigl)-1.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13240018
Rejent2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog41% won 81 of 197
Down 0–1, comes back25% 28 of 114
Down 0–2, comes back7% 4 of 58
Veigl1.57
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 5
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite65% won 65 of 100
Up 2–0, closes it92% 24 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it75% 43 of 57
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRejent2wins
AwayVeigl8wins
3 of 10 to a deciderVeigl leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRejent33.3%2 of 6
AwayVeigl100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rejent6Veigl4n = 10Rejent took 6 of 10
S2Rejent2Veigl8n = 10Veigl took 8 of 10
S3Rejent4Veigl6n = 10Veigl took 6 of 10
S4Rejent3Veigl5n = 8Veigl took 5 of 8
S5Rejent0Veigl3n = 3Veigl took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricRejentVeiglR − VBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match37.341.7−4.4per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRejentVeiglBasisWin rate · lifetime352 / 755 vs 278 / 53946.6%51.6%352 / 755 vs 278 / 539Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.040.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
VeiglRejent 2.25/Veigl 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.1%
Veigl · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Veigl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 29 · 15:45S. Rejent34891161L. Veigl4011117113
LJul 9 · 13:45S. Rejent36118981L. Veigl4071111113
LJul 8 · 16:44S. Rejent26105110L. Veigl361211133
LJul 8 · 13:45S. Rejent4497111162L. Veigl48111187113
WJul 7 · 15:45S. Rejent4111118113L. Veigl36791191
LJun 25 · 19:15S. Rejent185580L. Veigl331111113
LJun 24 · 19:45S. Rejent351112661L. Veigl4481411113
WJun 22 · 20:13S. Rejent47141111113L. Veigl401213691
LJun 22 · 19:15S. Rejent4311911482L. Veigl47811611113
LJun 20 · 21:03S. Rejent49111211692L. Veigl538101311113
S. Rejent10
WOct 4 · 18:15T. Liska2.108660S. Rejent1.671111113LOct 4 · 17:45O. Mezera2.201211113S. Rejent1.6110990WSep 30 · 16:44L. Rulc1.80831141S. Rejent1.9111118113LSep 30 · 15:45S. Rejent2.206111111102L. Rulc1.61119135123LSep 30 · 14:15M. Myler2.00581111123S. Rejent1.73111168102WSep 30 · 13:45L. Heinzl1.50911129172S. Rejent2.501191011193LSep 28 · 16:54L. Heinzl1.5011811113S. Rejent2.50511981WSep 28 · 15:15S. Rejent1.731011811113M. Makara2.0012911862LSep 28 · 14:15S. Rejent2.63811101272L. Heinzl1.441171210113WSep 28 · 13:15S. Rejent1.7311711123A. Radkovsky2.008118101
L. Veigl10
WOct 4 · 18:45O. Mezera2.207121011102L. Veigl1.611110129123WOct 4 · 17:15T. Liska2.2081191252L. Veigl1.611151110113WOct 3 · 08:44L. Veigl2.101113113J. Krames Sr1.6791180WOct 3 · 07:45M. Makara2.0087100L. Veigl1.731111123WOct 3 · 06:45O. Mezera2.20912118152L. Veigl1.611110711173LOct 3 · 05:15J. Krames Sr1.611191114113L. Veigl2.2081121662WSep 30 · 12:14M. Stibor1.83141211672L. Veigl1.831610511113LSep 30 · 11:15L. Veigl2.00981111102V. Burylov1.73111196123LSep 30 · 10:15L. Veigl2.0058150L. Dobias1.731111173WSep 30 · 09:15L. Veigl2.001111113M. Stibor1.739960
Upcoming Matches
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L. Veigl
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