TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Vaclav Dolezal vs Jan Briska 2-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1311118511511711
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 03:27 and never touched: 59.8% is still 59.8%
Graded at full timeVaclav Dolezal to win
59.8%
59.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVaclav Dolezal above · Jan Briska below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 93 set 5, 7-11 · our read held Vaclav Dolezal at 59.8%
93 points played in total.
H2H Vaclav Dolezal 14–15 Jan Briska Vaclav Dolezal has won 14 of their 29 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Briska beat Dolezal 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 03:2759.8%Our read63.3%to break even at 1.58
short by 3.5pp63.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.58 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.58 (58%)
Dolezal
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
14-15 in 29
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dolezal 1429 vs Briska 1366
Dolezal
Wrong
both rated, 63 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dolezal 80% vs Briska 60%
Dolezal
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dolezal 80% vs Briska 40%
Dolezal
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Dolezal +1 · Briska +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% · Slight lean (leans Dolezal) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Briska form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDolezal 1.58 / Briska 2.20
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Dolezal)-3.5pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13225515
Dolezal1.58
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite66% won 134 of 204
Up 2–0, closes it96% 64 of 67
Up 1–0, closes it84% 101 of 121
Briska2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDolezal5wins
AwayBriska5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDolezal60%3 of 5
AwayBriska60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dolezal5Briska5n = 10split evenly
S2Dolezal4Briska6n = 10Briska took 6 of 10
S3Dolezal7Briska3n = 10Dolezal took 7 of 10
S4Dolezal2Briska6n = 8Briska took 6 of 8
S5Dolezal3Briska2n = 5Dolezal took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricDolezalBriskaD − BBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match44.842.5+2.3per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDolezalBriskaBasisWin rate · lifetime396 / 784 vs 170 / 34050.5%50%396 / 784 vs 170 / 340Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.339.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
DolezalDolezal 1.58/Briska 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
59.8%
Dolezal · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Briska won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 1 · 00:30V. Dolezal4171112111J. Briska47111310133
WSep 28 · 07:30V. Dolezal3511211113J. Briska27311851
WMar 21 · 04:30V. Dolezal501111107113J. Briska4073121172
LMar 21 · 01:00V. Dolezal52119111292J. Briska52911714113
LMar 8 · 13:30V. Dolezal45111113462J. Briska531371111113
LMar 8 · 08:00V. Dolezal31911110J. Briska371113133
WFeb 8 · 10:26V. Dolezal341112113J. Briska2351080
WFeb 8 · 07:30V. Dolezal6415171110113J. Briska52171521262
LJan 21 · 13:30V. Dolezal4111108121J. Briska4471211143
WJan 20 · 13:00V. Dolezal558111114113J. Briska50111371272
V. Dolezal10
WOct 1 · 02:00J. Framberk3.2510680V. Dolezal1.331211113LOct 1 · 00:30V. Dolezal1.6171112111J. Briska2.20111310133WSep 30 · 23:00V. Dolezal1.571111113M. Stefek2.257670WSep 30 · 22:00M. Novak1.80581181V. Dolezal1.9111115113WSep 30 · 21:30V. Dolezal1.2511119113J. Framberk3.30781161WSep 30 · 20:30V. Hruska Sr2.20115121182V. Dolezal1.61511149113WSep 30 · 19:30V. Dolezal1.831111113J. Pelikan1.839620WSep 30 · 18:28J. Framberk3.251251151V. Dolezal1.33101113113LSep 28 · 09:28J. Strnad1.50118914113V. Dolezal2.50711111282WSep 28 · 08:00V. Dolezal1.44811118113L. Sulava2.6311851182
J. Briska10
WOct 1 · 01:30J. Briska1.501111113M. Stefek2.505730WOct 1 · 00:30V. Dolezal1.6171112111J. Briska2.20111310133LSep 30 · 23:30M. Novak1.808131011113J. Briska1.91111112692LSep 30 · 22:30J. Briska1.808380J. Framberk1.911111113WSep 29 · 03:00V. Hruska Sr2.25111188102J. Briska1.57961111123LSep 29 · 02:30J. Briska1.33111110652T. Regner3.25561211113WSep 29 · 01:30J. Strnad2.10671181J. Briska1.6711119113LSep 29 · 00:00J. Briska1.8311711792M. Ulrych1.83911911113LSep 28 · 23:00V. Hruska Sr2.1011118113J. Briska1.67761191LSep 28 · 09:00L. Sulava2.25115119113J. Briska1.5761111192
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