TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Jakub Tazler vs Richard Wagner 2-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 29Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
118811711112811
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 03:23 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJakub Tazler to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJakub Tazler above · Richard Wagner below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-2
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 88 set 5, 8-11 · our read held Jakub Tazler at 54.0%
88 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Tazler 8–5 Richard Wagner Richard Wagner has won 5 of their 13 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Tazler beat Wagner 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 03:23What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (51%)
Wagner
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-5 in 13
Tazler
Wrong
gap of 3 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tazler 1705 vs Wagner 1683
Tazler
Wrong
both rated, 22 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tazler 80% vs Wagner 60%
Tazler
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tazler 70% vs Wagner 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Tazler +3 · Wagner -1
Tazler
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Tazler) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tazler form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (53%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTazler 1.87 / Wagner 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Tazler)+4.5pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13214682
Tazler1.87
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog48% won 102 of 211
Down 0–1, comes back28% 31 of 111
Down 0–2, comes back15% 9 of 59
Wagner1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite55% won 72 of 130
Up 2–0, closes it97% 33 of 34
Up 1–0, closes it80% 53 of 66
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTazler7wins
AwayWagner3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderTazler leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTazler85.7%6 of 7
AwayWagner66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tazler7Wagner3n = 10Tazler took 7 of 10
S2Tazler5Wagner5n = 10split evenly
S3Tazler6Wagner4n = 10Tazler took 6 of 10
S4Tazler3Wagner3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricTazlerWagnerT − WBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match37.735.3+2.4per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTazlerWagnerBasisWin rate · lifetime410 / 750 vs 120 / 22554.7%53.3%410 / 750 vs 120 / 225Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.736.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TazlerTazler 1.87/Wagner 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Tazler · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Wagner won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 29 · 00:00J. Tazler52119714113R. Wagner51911111282
LSep 24 · 03:30J. Tazler391371091R. Wagner45111112113
WSep 23 · 23:30J. Tazler331111113R. Wagner237880
LSep 17 · 09:28J. Tazler3631111111R. Wagner4311136133
WSep 17 · 08:00J. Tazler3951112113R. Wagner351171071
WSep 14 · 01:30J. Tazler341112113R. Wagner2591060
WAug 25 · 12:00J. Tazler521110119113R. Wagner4561281182
LAug 25 · 08:30J. Tazler1734100R. Wagner341111123
WAug 12 · 16:30J. Tazler331111113R. Wagner239860
WAug 12 · 12:30J. Tazler4211119113R. Wagner29731181
J. Tazler10
WSep 29 · 02:30J. Tazler4.00111113113O. Svacha1.22381591WSep 29 · 01:30M. Skakal1.6181191142J. Tazler2.20115117113WSep 29 · 00:00J. Tazler1.91119714113R. Wagner1.80911111282LSep 28 · 23:00S. Kasnik1.801011153133J. Tazler1.911281311112WSep 28 · 16:58J. Tazler1.6713117113M. Pikous2.101161121WSep 28 · 16:00M. Pikous1.8314760J. Tazler1.831611113LSep 28 · 15:00J. Louda1.67114511123J. Tazler2.10811119102LSep 28 · 14:30J. Tazler1.67101161172M. Regner2.10129116113WSep 27 · 03:30J. Tazler2.1561511113T. Franek1.631113761WSep 27 · 01:30J. Tazler1.801211113T. Franek1.9110730
R. Wagner10
LSep 29 · 02:00R. Wagner1.5781111682S. Kasnik2.25116911113WSep 29 · 01:00R. Wagner2.2511811123O. Svacha1.574118101LSep 29 · 00:00J. Tazler1.91119714113R. Wagner1.80911111282WSep 28 · 22:30M. Skakal2.0051090R. Wagner1.731112113WSep 24 · 03:30J. Tazler1.601371091R. Wagner2.20111112113WSep 24 · 02:30T. Franek1.839119101R. Wagner1.8311911123WSep 24 · 01:00S. Kasnik2.2511175962R. Wagner1.576151111113LSep 23 · 23:30R. Wagner1.807880J. Tazler1.911111113WSep 23 · 22:00R. Wagner2.1011118113M. Sychra1.67761191LSep 22 · 13:00M. Regner1.801112113R. Wagner1.8581070
Upcoming Matches
J. Tazler
R. Wagner
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