TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Adam Kosacky vs Pavel Benes 2-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 28Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 5
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
11391116141012411
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:20 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAdam Kosacky to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAdam Kosacky above · Pavel Benes below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 16-14
Set 4 · 10-12
Set 5 · 4-11
Point 101 set 5, 4-11 · our read held Adam Kosacky at 54.0%
101 points played in total.
H2H Adam Kosacky 10–9 Pavel Benes Pavel Benes has won 9 of their 19 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 1h before this match
Kosacky beat Benes 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:20What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Kosacky
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-9 in 19
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kosacky 1678 vs Benes 1693
Benes
Correct
both rated, 15 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kosacky 100% vs Benes 80%
Kosacky
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kosacky 60% vs Benes 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kosacky +5 · Benes -1
Kosacky
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Kosacky) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Benes form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKosacky 1.67 / Benes 2.10
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kosacky)-1.8pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13213834
Kosacky1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 5
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite65% won 49 of 76
Up 2–0, closes it96% 27 of 28
Up 1–0, closes it85% 40 of 47
Benes2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog36% won 47 of 132
Down 0–1, comes back19% 14 of 75
Down 0–2, comes back12% 6 of 49
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKosacky6wins
AwayBenes4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKosacky leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKosacky80%4 of 5
AwayBenes60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kosacky5Benes5n = 10split evenly
S2Kosacky2Benes8n = 10Benes took 8 of 10
S3Kosacky6Benes4n = 10Kosacky took 6 of 10
S4Kosacky7Benes1n = 8Kosacky took 7 of 8
S5Kosacky2Benes2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKosackyBenesK − BBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.638.2+0.4per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKosackyBenesBasisWin rate · lifetime327 / 586 vs 263 / 55055.8%47.8%327 / 586 vs 263 / 550Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.737.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KosackyKosacky 1.67/Benes 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Kosacky · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Benes won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 28 · 21:25A. Kosacky4291111113P. Benes33116881
WMay 6 · 20:50A. Kosacky551112711143P. Benes48514116122
LApr 23 · 12:20A. Kosacky4011811552P. Benes46911411113
LApr 20 · 22:25A. Kosacky215970P. Benes331111113
WApr 20 · 18:55A. Kosacky4014114113P. Benes321261131
LApr 16 · 15:50A. Kosacky2568110P. Benes351111133
WApr 2 · 10:05A. Kosacky528111111113P. Benes4611137962
WApr 2 · 07:55A. Kosacky3611311113P. Benes31511781
WMar 15 · 16:25A. Kosacky4011711113P. Benes31611771
LMar 9 · 12:55A. Kosacky3526111152P. Benes47111168113
A. Kosacky10
WSep 28 · 21:25A. Kosacky1.7391111113P. Benes2.00116881WSep 28 · 19:55O. Fiklik2.6311880A. Kosacky1.441311113WSep 28 · 19:25M. Kulisek2.754870A. Kosacky1.401111113WSep 27 · 22:38M. Kulisek3.0065110A. Kosacky1.361111133WSep 27 · 20:55A. Kosacky1.531171111113O. Fiklik2.3881181342LSep 27 · 19:55A. Kosacky1.444640M. Kulisek2.631111113WSep 27 · 18:55A. Kosacky2.25911111113P. Vanek1.5711981172LSep 26 · 22:00A. Kosacky1.7387121152M. Prochazka2.001111107113LSep 26 · 20:55P. Dvorak1.6771111113A. Kosacky2.10118671LSep 26 · 20:25M. Brozek2.5091311123A. Kosacky1.5011112101
P. Benes10
LSep 28 · 21:25A. Kosacky1.7391111113P. Benes2.00116881WSep 28 · 20:25P. Benes1.53121111113M. Kulisek2.38148771WSep 28 · 18:55O. Fiklik2.1012811872P. Benes1.671011611113WSep 23 · 14:02P. Benes1.33111116113D. Vesecky3.25761891WSep 23 · 13:25D. Vesecky1.574450P. Benes2.251111113LSep 23 · 12:25P. Benes3.007460M. Cerny1.361111113LSep 23 · 10:55J. Kocab2.001111113P. Benes1.732980LSep 22 · 14:05V. Nadvornik1.6091211113P. Benes2.201110861WSep 22 · 12:50P. Benes1.8313121011123M. Brozek1.831114129102LSep 22 · 11:20V. Nadvornik1.57821111123P. Benes2.25111199102
Upcoming Matches
A. Kosacky
Nothing scheduled
P. Benes
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