TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleksandr Osadchyi vs Oleksandr Tymofeev 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 27Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
711117115911911
Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:07 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Tymofeev to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Osadchyi above · Oleksandr Tymofeev below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 92 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Oleksandr Tymofeev at 54.0%
92 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Osadchyi 7–9 Oleksandr Tymofeev Oleksandr Osadchyi has won 7 of their 16 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:07What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Tymofeev
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-9 in 16
Tymofeev
Correct
gap of 2 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Osadchyi 1523 vs Tymofeev 1593
Tymofeev
Correct
both rated, 70 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Osadchyi 80% vs Tymofeev 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Osadchyi 40% vs Tymofeev 90%
Tymofeev
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Osadchyi +3 · Tymofeev +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Slight lean (leans Tymofeev) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tymofeev form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOsadchyi 1.91 / Tymofeev 1.80
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Tymofeev)+3.6pp
Setka Cup · #13203329
Osadchyi1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog44% won 97 of 220
Down 0–1, comes back22% 25 of 113
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 69
Tymofeev1.80
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest100%takes the first set · 10 of 10
As favourite72% won 88 of 122
Up 2–0, closes it90% 45 of 50
Up 1–0, closes it89% 64 of 72
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOsadchyi4wins
AwayTymofeev6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderTymofeev leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOsadchyi80%4 of 5
AwayTymofeev100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Osadchyi5Tymofeev5n = 10split evenly
S2Osadchyi5Tymofeev5n = 10split evenly
S3Osadchyi3Tymofeev7n = 10Tymofeev took 7 of 10
S4Osadchyi1Tymofeev4n = 5Tymofeev took 4 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricOsadchyiTymofeevO − TBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match33.337.1−3.8per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOsadchyiTymofeevBasisWin rate · lifetime444 / 860 vs 280 / 52651.6%53.2%444 / 860 vs 280 / 526Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.337.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TymofeevOsadchyi 1.91/Tymofeev 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.1%
Tymofeev · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Tymofeev won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LSep 27 · 07:50O. Osadchyi4771111992O. Tymofeev45117511113
LSep 26 · 13:00O. Osadchyi357117101O. Tymofeev4311911123
LSep 13 · 10:20O. Osadchyi30115591O. Tymofeev4291111113
WAug 30 · 08:50O. Osadchyi331111113O. Tymofeev269980
LAug 24 · 07:00O. Osadchyi167360O. Tymofeev331111113
WAug 16 · 06:50O. Osadchyi511111711113O. Tymofeev4677111382
LAug 15 · 16:30O. Osadchyi2471340O. Tymofeev371115113
WAug 9 · 10:20O. Osadchyi4211911113O. Tymofeev29911361
LAug 8 · 15:30O. Osadchyi227960O. Tymofeev331111113
O. Osadchyi10
LSep 27 · 09:20O. Osadchyi1.737111381A. Kurtenko2.00111311113WSep 27 · 06:50O. Osadchyi1.40811911113D. Patalakha2.7511511662WSep 26 · 18:30O. Osadchyi1.36814118113D. Patalakha3.00111291162WSep 26 · 16:30A. Kurtenko2.0011157472O. Osadchyi1.739131111113LSep 26 · 15:30O. Osadchyi2.207960S. Solomko1.611111113WSep 26 · 14:30B. Zaika3.5013450O. Osadchyi1.28151163LSep 26 · 13:00O. Osadchyi1.837117101O. Tymofeev1.8311911123LSep 22 · 11:05O. Osadchyi1.73157111042I. Emets2.001311712113LSep 22 · 09:35O. Osadchyi1.7351181152O. Leonenko2.00118117113LSep 22 · 08:05O. Osadchyi1.678670A. Kurtenko2.101111113
O. Tymofeev10
WSep 27 · 09:50O. Tymofeev1.30114115113D. Patalakha3.4091151142LSep 27 · 08:50S. Solomko2.751111183O. Tymofeev1.4044160WSep 27 · 06:20A. Kurtenko2.6312119121O. Tymofeev1.4414511143WSep 26 · 19:00O. Tymofeev1.441112113S. Solomko2.6381050WSep 26 · 17:00B. Zaika2.63610100O. Tymofeev1.441112123LSep 26 · 15:00A. Kurtenko2.63129111153O. Tymofeev1.4414119822WSep 26 · 14:00O. Tymofeev1.301112113D. Patalakha3.4071040WSep 26 · 13:00O. Osadchyi1.837117101O. Tymofeev1.8311911123WSep 16 · 19:00O. Tymofeev1.911111113O. Ovsiienko1.807580WSep 16 · 15:00F. Voinarovskyi2.754680O. Tymofeev1.401111113
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