TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Serhii Aristarkhov vs Maksym Hubenko 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 27Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
911911911––––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:11 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMaksym Hubenko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSerhii Aristarkhov above · Maksym Hubenko below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 60 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Maksym Hubenko at 54.0%
60 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Aristarkhov 29–32 Maksym Hubenko Serhii Aristarkhov has won 29 of their 61 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:11What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Hubenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
29-32 in 61
Hubenko
Correct
gap of 3 in 61, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Aristarkhov 1631 vs Hubenko 1717
Hubenko
Correct
both rated, 86 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Aristarkhov 80% vs Hubenko 100%
Hubenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Aristarkhov 60% vs Hubenko 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Aristarkhov +3 · Hubenko +5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Hubenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hubenko form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAristarkhov 1.83 / Hubenko 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Hubenko)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13202089
Aristarkhov1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Hubenko1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 5
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeAristarkhov5wins
AwayHubenko5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeAristarkhov80%4 of 5
AwayHubenko80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Aristarkhov5Hubenko5n = 10split evenly
S2Aristarkhov3Hubenko7n = 10Hubenko took 7 of 10
S3Aristarkhov6Hubenko4n = 10Aristarkhov took 6 of 10
S4Aristarkhov1Hubenko3n = 4Hubenko took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricAristarkhovHubenkoA − HBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match33.835.6−1.8per matchSweeps23−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAristarkhovHubenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime309 / 567 vs 569 / 105354.5%54%309 / 567 vs 569 / 1053Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.638.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HubenkoAristarkhov 1.83/Hubenko 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Hubenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Hubenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LSep 27 · 09:30S. Aristarkhov279990M. Hubenko331111113
LSep 20 · 05:30S. Aristarkhov2181030M. Hubenko341112113
WSep 13 · 17:04S. Aristarkhov4211911113M. Hubenko31411971
WSep 13 · 16:00S. Aristarkhov44116115113M. Hubenko4581181172
LSep 6 · 09:30S. Aristarkhov2361160M. Hubenko351113113
WSep 5 · 17:10S. Aristarkhov381413113M. Hubenko29121160
WSep 5 · 12:30S. Aristarkhov516111112113M. Hubenko4211491442
WAug 30 · 13:00S. Aristarkhov331111113M. Hubenko279990
LAug 16 · 14:30S. Aristarkhov25341351M. Hubenko44111111113
S. Aristarkhov10
WSep 27 · 10:30A. Lushchyk1.4484111172S. Aristarkhov2.63111136113WSep 27 · 08:30S. Aristarkhov1.3611116113D. Kuzmenko3.00871191WSep 27 · 07:00S. Aristarkhov1.251111113O. Ziakun3.757550WSep 27 · 05:00S. Aristarkhov1.73911611113O. Syksa2.0011311922LSep 20 · 11:00S. Aristarkhov1.80311119112O. Syksa1.91118711133WSep 20 · 09:00V. Tatarnykov2.2578111162S. Aristarkhov1.57111188113LSep 20 · 08:00S. Aristarkhov1.3611671182D. Kuzmenko3.00711115113WSep 20 · 07:00O. Ziakun3.751110831S. Aristarkhov1.2581211113LSep 20 · 05:30S. Aristarkhov1.8381030M. Hubenko1.831112113LSep 19 · 16:30V. Tatarnykov2.201141192S. Aristarkhov1.61711991
M. Hubenko10
WSep 27 · 07:30A. Lushchyk1.57109150M. Hubenko2.251211173WSep 27 · 06:30M. Hubenko1.331111113D. Kuzmenko3.258680WSep 27 · 05:30O. Ziakun3.0075100M. Hubenko1.361111123WSep 26 · 16:58M. Hubenko1.571111193D. Prylepa2.2588170WSep 26 · 16:00M. Hubenko1.3311116123O. Lyman3.258911101LSep 26 · 15:00D. Prylepa2.63413116103M. Hubenko1.44111181182LSep 26 · 14:00O. Kurylenko3.0095111193M. Hubenko1.3611117782LSep 26 · 12:30A. Vasylets2.5011112113M. Hubenko1.50681151LSep 24 · 10:30M. Hubenko1.36114891D. Kuzmenko3.0051111113WSep 20 · 05:30S. Aristarkhov1.8381030M. Hubenko1.831112113
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